【世事关心】 川普重塑 世界贸易格局

文章分类: 世事关心
更新时间: 2018-08-07 22:41 [纽约时间]

【新唐人北京时间2018年08月08日讯】【世事关心】(476)川普重塑 世界贸易格局:美国和欧洲在上个月通过谈判达成了零关税协议,这是全球范围最新的一个促进自由贸易的谈判,此前一周日本和欧盟签署了一项贸易协议,将取消几乎所有关税,美国、加拿大和墨西哥可能很快会更新北美贸易协定,美国和日本也可能签署自由贸易协定,如果将欧盟视为一个整体,它将超越美国成为世界上最大的经济体


美国正与世界上几个最大的经济体签订多个双边贸易协定,整个国际贸易体系会随之改变吗?
The U.S. is entering multiple bilateral trade agreements with the world’s largest economies, will the entire international trade system change with it?

夏业良(前北京大学经济学教授):〝他现在做的就是重塑世界贸易格局、重塑美国的对外贸易、经济、甚至战略。〞
〝What Mr. Trump is doing now is to rebuild the world trade platform, reshape U.S. foreign trade relationships and the U.S. economy strategically.〞

美国经济是否强大到足以抵御贸易战的压力?
Is the U.S. economy strong enough to hold up against the stress from the trade war?

Tom Del Beccaro(《分裂的时代》作者):〝由于税改法案从根本上改革了公司税,我预测经济会持续增长。〞
〝 because there’s an actual fundamental change in the corporate tax code, I expect to see sustained growth.〞

川普总统对中国的高压战略是否有效?
Is President Trump’s maximum pressure strategy against China working?

夏业良(前北京大学经济学教授):〝那么所有这些都说明中国如果要是跟美国进行那种所谓以牙还牙的贸易对抗战,那么中国将会输的很惨。〞
〝Based on my analyses, if China plans to engage in the so-called ‘a tooth for a tooth’ retaliatory trade war against the U.S., it will definitely lose ungracefully.〞

世界贸易组织被边缘化的后果是什么?
What happens if the World Trade Organization gets marginalized?

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao): 欢迎收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗。美国的GDP在今年第二季度实现了4.1%的高增长。第三季度GDP增幅预计将达到更高的4.4%。在贸易战的背景下能有这样的成绩实在令人惊讶。而就是贸易战本身,也出现了积极的变化。上周美国和欧盟同意就实现零关税展开协商。虽然这只是一个初步构想,但是大多数人事先都没想到,贸易战也会带来新的机遇。那就是,它可能会催生一套新的贸易规则,一个更加自由的市场,一个更高的保护知识产权的标准,从而建立一个新的国际贸易秩序。 这个新秩序可能会摒弃现有的多边贸易体制,代之以主要经济体之间的双边贸易体制。在这个新秩序下,美国将以经济实力为后盾重建对外贸易关系。在过去很长的一段时间里,美国的精英阶层以为美国国力会持续衰退,中国会崛起成为下一个超级强国。但是在不久的将来,人们可能就会改变这种观念,〝让美国从新变得伟大〞这句话,不见得只是一句口号。在这一期里,我们将探讨这一系列变革。
Welcome to《 Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product, GDP grew at a solid 4.1% for the 2nd quarter. The forecast for the 3rd quarter growth is 4.4%. These are spectacular figures especially against the backdrop of the trade war which also took a drastic turn last week when the U.S. and EU agreed to work towards zero tariffs. Although more things still need to be worked out between the U.S. and EU, a new opportunity most people did not see coming from a nasty trade conflict might have emerged. That is, the birth of a new set of trade rules, a freer market, a higher standard for intellectual property rights protection, and frankly, a new world trade order. Under this order, bilateral trade relations between major world economies might replace multilateral trade organizations. Also under this new order, America will assume a new role, a role that will allow this country to negotiate from a point of strength. For a long time, the American elites have accepted the perception that America is in a long term decline. China will be the next superpower. That perception might be proven wrong in the near future. Make America Great again, after all, may not be just a slogan. In this episode, We’ll explore how all of these changes came about.

美国和欧盟在上个月通过谈判达成了零关税协议。这是在全球范围最新的一个促进自由贸易的谈判。此前一周,日本和欧盟签署了一项贸易协议,将取消几乎所有关税。美国、加拿大、和墨西哥可能很快会更新北美自由贸易协定,美国和日本也可能签署自由贸易协定。
The zero-tariff agreement between the U.S. and the EU last month is the latest in a series of global trade negotiations favoring freer trade. A week earlier, Japan and the EU signed a trade deal that will eliminate nearly all tariffs. The United States, Canada, and Mexico are likely to update the North American Free Trade Agreement soon, and the U.S. and Japan are also likely to sign a free trade agreement.

如果将欧盟视为一个整体,它将超越美国成为世界上最大的经济体。美国和欧洲的总和占世界经济总和的一半以上,日本是第三大经济体,加拿大排名第10位。据资深中国政治评论员文昭说,当美国与世界上最大的经济体签署双边贸易协定时,国际贸易体系将发生重大变化。中国一直依赖的世贸组织体制可能会被边缘化,这将影响中国出口和吸引外资的能力。更重要的是,新体系的成员是自由市场经济体,它们基本遵循一套推崇资本主义,开放和公平的原则。
If you consider the European Union as one unit, it surpasses America to be the largest economy in the world. The United States and Europe combined account for more than half of the world’s economy. Japan is the third largest economy, and Canada is No. 10. According to Chinese senior political commentator Wen Zhao, when the U.S. signs bilateral trade agreements with the world’s biggest economies, the international trade system will change significantly. The old WTO-centered system, which China has been relying on for accessing foreign markets and attracting foreign investment, will likely be marginalized. More importantly, the members of the new system are free-market economies that fundamentally agree on a set of rules that value capitalism, openness, and fairness.

但事情并没有就此结束。上周,美国国务卿Mike Pompeo宣布美国将在印度洋、太平洋地区投资1.13亿美元。
But the story doesn’t end there. Last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the U.S. will invest $113 million in the Indo-Pacific region.

美国国务卿迈克.蓬佩奥:〝 美国将继续为一个自由、开放的印度太平洋地区的共同繁荣创造条件,每一个国家、每一个企业都应当对此充满信心。加强与这一地区的联系,显然符合美国的战略利益。因为世界三分之一的人口在这里,世界六大经济体中有四个也在这里:中国、日本、印度、当然还有美国。〞
Mike Pompeo(US Secretary of State): 〝I speak for President Trump when I say every nation and business can have confidence that the United States will continue to create the conditions for mutual prosperity in a free and open Indo-Pacific. It is clearly in America's strategic interest to deepen engagement in the region - more than one third of the global population is there, four of the world's six largest economies are there as well - in China, Japan, and India. And of course the United States. 〞

印度洋、 太平洋的定义不包括美国的大陆,但夏威夷被包括在内。它包括印度洋的热带水域、西太平洋和中太平洋、以及连接印度尼西亚附近的海域,将美国纳入印度洋、 太平洋区域具有战略(印太战略)意义。Mike Pompeo和商务部长Wilbur Ross将印度洋、太平洋投资与中国的〝一带一路〞(BRI)进行了对比, BRI的〝道路〞是指从中国东南沿海城市泉州,经过西南太平洋和印度洋的海上丝绸之路,它从东南亚、印度一直延伸到欧洲,它主要与美国新的印度洋、 太平洋投资计划重叠。〝一带一路〞倡议因含有控制和攫取参与国资源的内容,一直为人所诟病。
The definition of Indo-Pacific does not include the United States’ mainland; only Hawaii is included. It comprises the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean, the western and central Pacific Ocean, and the seas that connect them near Indonesia. The inclusion of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region is strategic. Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross both contrasted the Indo-Pacific investment to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI. The BRI’s 〝Road〞 refers to the ocean-going Maritime Silk Road that starts from China’s southeast coastal city Quanzhou, via the southwest Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, and it goes all the way to southeast Asia, India, and Europe. It largely overlaps with America’s new Indo-Pacific investment program. The Belt and Road Initiative has been criticized for dominating and seizing resources from the countries it invests in.

与〝一带一路〞倡议相反,国务卿Mike Pompeo强调,美国将让印度洋、 太平洋地区变得更安全和自由。
In contrast to the Belt and Road Initiative, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stressed that the U.S. will help enhance security and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region.

美国国务卿迈克.蓬佩奥:〝我们会随时确保合作伙伴的安全,并协助他们在确保人民尊严的前提下,发展经济和社会。我们会帮助他们,我们将帮助这些国家的人民免于压迫或强权统治。〞
Mike Pompeo: 〝We stand ready to enhance the security of our partners and to assist them in developing their economies and societies in ways that ensure human dignity. We will help them. We will help them keep their people free from coercion or great power domination.〞

Wilbur Ross(商务部长): 〝有不止一条经济带,而且路也不止一条。印度洋、太平洋地区有许多经济带和许多途径。〞
Wilbur Ross: 〝There are more than one belt, and there’s more than one road. There are many belts and many roads to Indo-Pacific. 〞

当川普总统退出跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)时,有人批评他说,此举留下了一个经济和权力的真空,中国会乘虚而入。但最新的印太投资可能是对此的回应:美国没有退出世界舞台,它正在创建自己的平台来对抗中国的〝一带一路〞倡议。
When President Trump exited the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), he was criticized for leaving an economic and power vacuum for China to take advantage of. But the newest Indo-Pacific investment might be an answer to that: The U.S. is not exiting the world stage, it’s creating its own platform to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

印太倡议公布后的第二天,中国官方媒体的一篇社论警告美国,不要搞〝帝国主义〞和〝权力游戏〞。
A day after the Indo-Pacific initiative was announced, an editorial in Chinese state-run media warned the U.S. against 〝imperialism〞 and〝power games〞.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):贸易战始于川普总统的钢铁和铝关税,现在看来世界贸易秩序正在重组。这真的是川普总统的最终目标吗?我与前北京大学经济学教授夏业良先生进行了讨论,让我们来听听他的看法。
It started with President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, and now it seems like the world trade order is being reconstructed. Is this really President Trump’s end goal? I had a discussion with former Peking University professor of economics, David Xia.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝最近,美国和欧盟、日本、加拿大、墨西哥都签署了或打算签署双边或三边的贸易协定。您觉得美国在有意打破原来的以WTO为样板的多边贸易体系格局,建立新的贸易体系格局吗?它为什么要这么做?会有什么影响?〞
〝 Recently, the US signed or plan to sign bilateral or trilateral trade deals with EU, Japan, Canada and Mexico. Do you agree that the US plans to obsolete the multilateral trade platform established by the WTO and build a new model of international trade? Why does he do so? What are the potential outcomes? 〞

夏业良(前北京大学经济学教授):〝川普在竞选期间就明确地表示,全球化并没有给美国带来真正的利益。贸易自由化帮助了一些发展中国家,尤其是对中国极其的有利,但是对美国来说却遭受了重大的损失。他估计一年美国在贸易方面的损失,加上知识产权保护方面受到的损失,大概是8000亿美元,所以,他在竞选期间就说,他一旦当选总统,就要对这个问题进行矫正。以往的那些贸易框架,无论是单边协议还是多边协议,还有世界贸易组织这个构架,对于美国来说,其实有很多的这种从政治上来讲是正确,但是从实际效果上来讲非常糟糕。所以他现在做的就是重塑世界贸易格局、重塑美国的对外贸易、经济、甚至战略。他现在这一步一步走的是非常的明显,而且非常的确定。那我们看到过去NAFTA,也就是美国跟加拿大、墨西哥之间的北美贸易区,他首先要废除。在这种废除的威胁之下呢,加拿大和墨西哥不得不做出让步,愿意就有些重新谈判条件进行协商。这个呢,有可能形成一个新的,虽然框架还是原来的框架,但是它的内容和它具体的情况是跟以前大不相同。另外,跟欧盟和日本,也都是在不断的谈判和协商之中,形成新的贸易协定。那么跟日本之间的贸易,我们知道在80年代、90年代都有日美贸易摩擦,也有贸易战。那么今天日本愿意在很多方面跟美国进行重新谈判,所以呢这一方面也将有相当大的进展,已经体现出来很多方面。如果要是讲一旦美国跟最主要的几个经济贸易体能够达成一些比较好的协议,尤其是欧盟和日本,那么也就是说可以重塑世界贸易格局,那么WTO的框架作用基本上就可以废置。〞
David Xia: 〝On his campaign trail, Trump made it clear that the U.S. did not benefit from globalization. Free trade has helped several developing countries, especially China. However, the U.S. suffered significant loss because of it. According to his estimate, the U.S. trade deficit, plus the loss of intellectual property, is about $800 billion annually. That’s why he promised to fix the problem once elected. The trade platforms Mr. Trump inherited, whether unilateral or multilateral, and the WTO, appear to be politically correct, but are actually detrimental to the U.S. economy. What Mr. Trump is doing now is to rebuild the world trade platform, reshape U.S. foreign trade relationships and the U.S. economy strategically. His actions are very clear, and the steps he’s taken are reassuring. Let’s take NAFTA as an example. As the first step, he wanted out. Under the threat of U.S. withdrawal, Canada and Mexico made concessions and are willing to come to the table, which paved the way for a new trade agreement. Although the framework still involves the original three North American countries, the specific clauses would be quite different from the previous version. In the meantime, the U.S. is engaging with Japan and the EU to negotiate new trade agreements. There had been trade frictions between Japan and the U.S. in the 1980s and 1990s. It’s a significant step for Japan to renegotiate willingly with the Trump administration. Once the U.S., EU, and Japan -- the biggest economic entities -- can reach better agreements, the world trade platform will be remodeled. It’s just a matter of time when the old WTO framework will become practically meaningless.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝如果世界贸易组织被边缘化?对中国会产生什么样的影响? 〞
〝 Is it possible that the WTO would eventually be marginalized? How would it affect China?〞

夏业良(前北京大学经济学教授):〝WTO,中国是费了13年时间加入WTO。在2001年加入的时候,当时中国做出了很多的承诺。当时的宽限期是5年,在5年之内呢,要完成所有没有满足的条件。但是呢现在17年过去了,中国承诺的东西到今天都还没有完全兑现,甚至大部分没有兑现。所以现在呢从今年开始,中国陆续开始出台政策。那么最近我们刚刚看到中国扩大了外国投资在中国的这样一个范围、条件。但是呢我认为来的太晚,已经错失了最好的时机。如果是在17年前一步一步地向前推进,那么中国的贸易自由化和市场化就会取得很大的进展。虽然在中共的领导下制度没有根本的变革,不可能达到完全的市场化,也不可能达到完全的贸易自由化,但是至少可以向前推进很多。〞
David Xia: 〝It took China 13 years to join the WTO. China made a lot of promises when it was accepted by the WTO in 2001. China was given a 5-year grace period to fulfill all unmet conditions. Seventeen years have passed since then; most of what China had promised has not materialized yet. Starting this year, Beijing has made some new policies. One of them is the expansion and relaxation on conditions for foreign investment in mainland China. However, I think the efforts are too little and too late. The best time was missed a long time ago. If China had moved forward gradually and steadily starting 17 years ago to keep its promises, China would be enjoying more freedom in trade and the market economy. Although the CCP’s rule would not allow a fundamental change, it’s impossible to achieve complete marketization and free trade, but at least it wouldn’t be so backward as it is today.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):一个强大的美国经济是(川普)重组世界贸易秩序,同时打赢贸易战的决定因素。那么美国经济在未来几年前景如何呢?我采访了税务专家Tom Del Beccaro,他是《分裂时代》的作者,下面是他从税收改革的角度所说的。
Engaging in a trade war while reconstructing world trade order is only made possible because of one important factor- a strong U.S. economy. So how will the U.S. economy do in the next few years? I spoke with Tom Del Beccaro, a tax expert who is the author of the Divided Era. This is what he has to say from the tax reform point of view.

Tom Del Beccaro(《分裂的时代》作者):〝 我在去年协助现政府通过税改法案的时候,就预计到一旦它获得通过,就会促成今年第二,第三季度的GDP增长率超过4%。我们确实看到今年第二季度的GDP增长了4.1%。亚特兰大联邦储备银行估计,今年第三季度的GDP增长率将接近5%。这是从根本上进行结构调整的结果。税改分两种。一种是从前福特和卡特政府搞得短期减免,结果是收效甚微。另一种是小布什政府搞得小规模减税,或者是柯立芝总统在1920年代,肯尼迪总统在1960年代,里根总统在1980年代搞得大规模税改。我们的税改在规模上接近于肯尼迪、柯立芝、和里根搞的税改。我认为它会促成长期经济增长,其增速将超过过去20年里的平均水平。这里边的部分原因,是因为税改将吸引海外资金回流。川普总统以前讲过,美国公司为了避免被双重征税,把5万亿美元资金留在了海外。取消双重征税以后,在2018年第一季度,就有3千亿美元海外资金回流。这和2017年第一季度的3百亿形成了鲜明对比。这是真正的刺激经济的举措,就这一条就足以加快经济增长。不仅如此,由于税改法案从根本上改革了公司税,我预测经济会持续增长,只要不出现国际金融危机,或灾难性事件,经济会长期增长。〞
〝Yes, when I was assisting the administration last year with the passage of the tax reform bill, I predicted if it passed, that we would see growth above 4 percent in the second and third quarters of this year. Certainly the 4.1 percent we saw for the second quarter has come true, and the Atlanta fed says we’re on track to closer to 5 percent for the third quarter. And the reason why this is occurring is there’s been a fundamental restructuring. There’s two types of tax reforms: one time giveaways, which the United States did under the Ford administration and the Carter administration, which has very little effect. Smaller tax reductions, like which occurred under Bush 43, or the really large reforms that occurred under Coolidge in the ‘20s, under Kennedy in the ‘60s, and reagan in the ‘80s. And we’re closer – this reform package is much more like the major reform of Kennedy, Coolidge, and Reagan. And I expect long-term growth to occur, increases, much better than what we’ve seen in the last 20 years. And we know this is possible, in part because of the money that’s coming home. President Trump talked about the fact that there’s 5 trillion U.S. dollars overseas that wouldn’t come home because of double taxation. That’s been removed. In the first quarter of 2018, over 300 billion came home. That’s a marked contrast from the first quarter of the year before when it was only 30. That kind of stimulus alone, that’s true stimulus, would increase growth in the economy. But because there’s an actual fundamental change in the corporate tax code, I expect to see sustained growth, barring some sort of international security incident or calamity, I expect long-term growth. 〞


接下来,世贸组织是否将走入历史?中国会受到何等影响?
Coming Up,Is the World Trade Organization dead, and how would it impact China?

在美国和欧盟宣布将向零关税努力的六天后,川普总统表示他计划将2000亿美元中国商品的关税从10%提高到25%。新增关税可能会影响鱼类、石油、化学品、手提包等商品,但9月前不会作出最终决定。两天后,北京方面威胁要对600亿美元的美国产品征收关税,如果华盛顿提高关税的话。
Six days after the U.S. and the EU announced they will work towards zero tariffs, President Trump indicated he’s planning to increase tariffs on the 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. The new tariff increase could affect fish, petroleum, chemicals, handbags, etc., but a final decision won’t be made before September. Beijing responded two days later by threatening to slap levies on 60 billion dollars of U.S. products if Washington moves ahead with its tariff increase.

为什么川普总统的行动如此迅疾?
Why did President Trump move so quickly?

除了中国拒绝承认盗窃知识产权、强迫转让技术之外,还有许多其它可能的原因,包括试图联合欧洲对抗美国,人民币大幅贬值,暗中操纵大豆价格以及设立监管障碍限制美国公司开展在华业务。不管是什么原因,这一轮新增关税揭示了川普对美中贸易战的总体战略 –­––最大限度施压。
Narration: On top of China’s refusal to acknowledge intellectual property theft, forceful transfer of technologies, etc., there are many other possible reasons, including trying to ally with Europe against the U.S, Renminbi’s sharp depreciation, China’s possible manipulation of soybean prices, and China’s regulatory hurdles that undermine business practices of U.S. firms. Whatever the reason, this new tariff increase reveals Trump’s overall strategy toward the U.S.-China trade war –– maximum pressure.

川普总统宣布可能提高关税的当天,美国参议院以86比10通过了一项国防政策法案,加强了美国对中国企业经营活动的国家安全审查,并修补了对美国技术的出口的管制。该法案还限制北京在文化活动和军事演习等领域的活动。同一个法案一周前在众议院通过,预计将由总统签署成为法律。
On the same day President Trump announced possible tariff increases, the U.S. Senate approved a defense-policy bill by 86 to 10 that tightens U.S. national-security reviews of Chinese corporate deals and revamps export controls over which U.S. technologies can be sent abroad. The bill also restricts Beijing in areas ranging from cultural activities to military exercises. The same bill passed in the House a week earlier and is expected to be signed into law by the president.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):川普总统是否正在最大限度的对中共施压?这样做会奏效吗?还是请夏业良教授为我们解答。
Is president Trump exerting maximum pressure on China and will it work? Here is David Xia again.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普总统在这周宣布他打算把对中国加增的2000亿商品的关税从10%上调到25%,美国参议院又同时通过了7000亿的国防授权法案,对中共也是很大的威慑。您觉得川普的对中国最大压力的策略会成功吗?中国接下来会如何走?〞
〝 President Trump announced last week that he planned to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Last year, the senate passed a 700 billion military budget bill, which was also a major deterrence to China’s ambitions. Do you think Mr. Trump’s strategy of maximal pressure would succeed? How would China respond? 〞

夏业良(前北京大学经济学教授):〝我觉得现在川普招招紧逼,而且不给中国喘息的机会。虽然前面中国有一些招数说是要让人民币贬值10%,来应对这样的一个后果。但实际上美国又出了这样一个新招,就是关税提高到25%,那么中国很难再大幅度地贬低人民币。有人算了一下,如果要是将人民币贬值50%,或者40%以上,才有可能抵消这些方面的影响。那样的话,人民币贬值严重的话会带来严重的通货膨胀,给中国国内各个方面经济造成压力和负面的后果。所以这些呢都是应当加以正视的,所以我觉得中国在这些方面没有太多的好的招数可以使用了。中美贸易战,一般人都会认为,这只是贸易本身的这种争斗,主要目的是为了利益。但实际上我们要看到这个利益不仅仅是经济和贸易的利益。在川普眼中,美国利益优先、美国利益第一,他实际上包含着美国要成为伟大的国度,继续引领世界。在他年轻时候的梦想,他的偶像就是里根总统,里根总统在冷战时期可以遏制苏联,那么现在在我看来是一次新冷战,旧的冷战可能已经是基本上终结,但现在新的冷战开始。那么新的冷战中呢,美国要跟现在新的对手–––中国进行根本上的较量。所以这一点我觉得他不仅仅看的是贸易利益本身,他看到的是更加长远的美国国家利益和安全。〞
David Xia: 〝Trump is now pressing really hard and not allowing China a break. Although China deployed a trick to let the Renminbi depreciate by 10% to cancel the effects of tariff increases, the U.S. made a new move to increase the tariffs to 25%, making it extremely difficult for China to further depreciate its currency correspondingly. Some calculated that if the Renminbi were to be devalued by 40%, 50% or even more, it’d then be possible for China to offset the impact of the 25% U.S. tariffs. In this scenario, a drastic depreciation of the Renminbi would bring serious inflation and bring stress and negative consequences to all aspects of the Chinese economy. So I believe China doesn't have any strong hands left in playing with the value of the Renminbi. Most people would think that the Sino-U.S. trade war is limited to trade itself, and Trump’s main goal is to gain more financial interests for the U.S. In my humble opinion, however, it goes far beyond the economy and trade. Trump made it clear that he’d like to “Make America Great Again,” and his policies center around “America First.” It’d be natural for Mr. Trump to want to restore the United States as the beacon of the free world. His childhood idol was President Reagan because Mr. Reagan kept the Soviet Union in check during the Cold War. It appears to me that the trade war is a contemporary Cold War. The 44-year Cold War ended in 1991; the new Cold War just started. In the new Cold War, the U.S. will have a fundamental war of ideologies with its new rival, China. So I believe that Mr. Trump is not only looking after trade itself, he has long-term national interests and security in his mind.〞

Coming Up,Manufacturers move production out of China amidst trade war tensions.
接下来,随着贸易战的发展,制造商开始迁离中国大陆。

在美中贸易战中,海外制造商开始将生产线从中国撤出,其中包括在全球供应链中扮演重要角色的台湾企业。
Amid the U.S.-China trade war, overseas manufacturers are starting to move their production lines out of China. Among them are Taiwanese firms that are crucial players in the global supply chain.

据彭博社报导,向苹果公司供应电源组件的Delta电子公司正以21.4亿美元的价格收购其泰国子公司, 这是在泰国扩大生产的前奏。为Bose等公司生产耳机的Merry Electronics Co. 也可能将其部分产能从中国转移到泰国,未来的具体发展还要看目前贸易战的走向。
According to Bloomberg, Delta Electronics Inc., which supplies power components to Apple Inc., is making a $2.14 billion offer to buy out a Thai affiliate -- a precursor to expanding production there. Merry Electronics Co., which makes headphones for companies like Bose, may also move some of its production to Thailand from China, depending on how the trade conflict pans out.

搬迁的原因主要是工资增涨。这种趋势在几年前开始,并在美中贸易战中加速。
iPhone组装商富士康暂时留在中国,但这个台湾制造商刚刚在6月开设了第一家美国工厂。根据CBS广播公司的消息,这将是富士康在亚洲以外的第一家工厂。
The reason for the relocation is mainly wage increase. The trend started a few years ago and has been accelerated by the U.S.-China trade war. iPhone-assembler Foxconn remains in China for now, but the Taiwan manufacturer just opened its first U.S. factory in June. According to CBS news in Washington, this would be its first plant outside of Asia.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):富士康的老板郭台铭在美国设厂,是为了分散投资以降低风险。中国经济到底有多少缓冲余地,来抵御贸易战带来的负面影响?我们来听夏教授怎么说。
By opening a factory in the U.S., Foxconn’s owner Ted Kuo is definitely putting his apples in two baskets to minimize risks. Just how much cushion does the Chinese economy have to resist the negative impact from the trade war? This is what Professor Xia has to say.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您认为中国现在的宏观经济形式怎么样? 它有多厚的底子能和美国继续拼下去?〞
〝 What’s your opinion on the health of China’s macroeconomy? Is it healthy enough to continue fighting the trade war against the US?〞

夏业良(前北京大学经济学教授):〝中国要想跟美国进行抗衡,在经济贸易方面,无论是从贸易产品的结构和升级的档次,还有从技术领先的条件来讲,都是差距甚大,不是三年、五年能赶上的。比如说我们前一段时间看到的,制裁中兴公司,由于不提供芯片,所以中国的很多的重要产业都受到严重的影响和制约,所以中国在这个方面就立马现了原形,没有办法敢跟美国进行叫板。那么还有一些高技术领域,包括军事领域,军事领域当然是不允许转让,但是呢这些年来,中国也持续在偷窃这些技术,包括最先进的战斗机。所以现在美国不但是在贸易上制裁中国,而且在技术上,尤其是在高技术和军事技术方面,要对中国进行严加的防范。然后讲到经济上的能力,我们知道美国对贸易的依存度并不是像中国那么高。美国的贸易依存度只有12%左右,而中国的贸易依存度高达33.6%。也就是说如果没有跟中国之间的贸易,美国不会伤筋动骨;而没有跟美国的贸易,中国在经济发展上,在很多方面会遇到比较大的困难。包括外汇储备,因为我们知道外汇储备的主要来源是出口贸易,当中国的几乎所有的商品都受到这种高关税的壁垒,那么在这种情况下呢,中国的外汇来源受到了很大的影响。外汇储备现在目前已经从原来的4万多亿美元下滑到2万多亿。但实际上根据内部人士的消息,实际上能够应对的只有少数的1万多亿。那么所有这些都说明中国如果要是跟美国进行那种所谓以牙还牙的贸易对抗战,那么中国将会输的很惨。〞
David Xia: 〝In the arena of economics and trade, the difference in power between China and the U.S. is quite dramatic, be it the trade structures or the level of technologies in the products or the technological gap, the difference is huge. It’s not a gap that can be bridged in three to five years. For example, China’s ZTE was temporarily banned from purchasing U.S. chips because of its sanctions violations. As a result, many important industries in China were badly hurt. China’s technological deficiencies were immediately exposed. In many high-tech categories, especially the military-related technologies, the transfer of technology is forbidden. Over the years, however, China has been stealing American technologies, including secrets for the most advanced fighter jets. To retaliate, the U.S. not only imposed restrictions on trade with China, but also put bans on technology transfer for the high-tech and military technologies to prevent further loss by Chinese espionage. When it comes to economic power, the U.S.'s dependence on trade (12%) is not as high as China's (33.6%). That is to say, if trade ceases to exist between China and the U.S., the U.S. wouldn’t be badly hurt. China, on the other hand, would run into major difficulties in many aspects of its economic development, especially its foreign-exchange reserves. The main source of China’s foreign-exchange reserves comes from exports. With almost all Chinese goods subjected to high tariffs, China’s foreign-exchange reserves have fallen from over $4 trillion to a little more than $2 trillion USD. According to reliable insiders, there’s only about 1 trillion that can actually be counted on. Based on my analyses, if China plans to engage in the so-called “a tooth for a tooth” retaliatory trade war against the U.S., it will definitely lose ungracefully.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):8月3日,在新加坡举行的东盟外长会议上,中国外交部长王毅和蓬佩奥举行了会晤。王毅说中美已经达成协议解决贸易战。他说蓬佩奥和他一样,也不希望美中贸易战持续下去。这意味着什么?这是中共在退让之前为保留颜面的举动吗?我们目前还不能做出这样的结论。但是,一个简单的事实是: 中国的出口商平均利润率低于2%。那么25%的关税对他们来说意味着什么?请继续观看我们的节目。萧茗和《世事关心》将以独特的视角,带您关注贸易战的发展。感谢收看,我们下周再见。
On August 3, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and Mike Pompeo met at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting in Singapore. Wang said the two countries reached an agreement on the issue of how to resolve the current trade dispute. He said Pompeo agreed with him that America does not want to see the trade war continue. What does that mean? Is it a face-saving way to say China plans to concede? We won’t draw that conclusion yet. But a simple fact comes to mind: China’s export business has an average profit rate less than 2%. What does a 25% tariff mean to them? Stay tuned, Zooming In with Simone Gao will bring you the unique perspective on the ongoing trade war. Thanks for watching and see you next week.


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Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao, Jess Beatty
Editors:Julian Kuo, Frank Lin , Bin Tang
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Interview Overdub: Kacey Cox

Cameraman:Yolanda Yao
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Greg Yang , Frank Yue, Michelle Wan, Guiru Zhang
Transcription:Jess Beatty
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer:Sherry Chang, Bin Tang, Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com
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August, 2018
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