【新唐人2011年8月29日訊】中共十八大前夕，中共中央密集調整多個省區一把手等省部級高官，胡錦濤團派勢力大增，目前團派主政的省市區數量佔絕對優勢。在江澤民死訊傳出和賴昌星被引渡回國後，外界分析，江派勢力正走向衰落，胡溫將主導十八大人事佈局。
據新華社消息，河北省長陳全國接任張慶黎擔任西藏自治區黨委書記，張慶黎任河北省委書記；團派背景的羅保銘和秦光榮，分別升任海南和雲南省委書記。
張慶黎主政西藏期間以強硬著稱，2008年「拉薩事件」遭到當局暴力鎮壓。「自由西藏組織」發言人桑德斯認為，這次撤換西藏黨委書記，並不意味著中共高層會改變西藏政策。
接替張慶黎的陳全國，在李克強任河南省長時期，擔任河南副省長，因此他被視為李克強的親信。2009年，陳全國接替團派的崛起之星—-胡春華，出任河北省長。
這次省部級人事調動，還包括海南、雲南、江蘇、寧夏等省區黨委副書記、解放軍軍事法院院長等職位，省部級黨政換屆將陸續展開。
台灣媒體引述消息透露，內蒙古自治區黨委書記胡春華、吉林省委書記孫政才，極可能在十八大前另行調整新職務，包括接任副總理或北京市委書記，配合安排進入中央政治局。
伍凡：「最近各個省的第一把手都在換，換了4、5個了，團派的力量在上升，江澤民這一派勢力下降。我想這是很正常的了，因為江澤民快死了，那麼他的人馬要換靠山了，要麼就是要脫離這個位子，讓別人上來。」
不久前召開的北戴河會議，外界分析結果有利於胡錦濤團派。隨後，胡錦濤親往深圳、廣州考察，力挺廣東省委書記汪洋，汪洋是團派屬意的總書記人選。
另一個團派主將李克強則前往香港，作為出任總理前的熱身。但他雖然帶去了36份大禮，卻由於香港警方保安過嚴，限制了示威和採訪的自由，引發民間抗議。
香港《蘋果日報》引述消息透露，李克強訪港前後，至少有兩名以上公安部副部長級官員先一步到香港，親自過問保安，要求加強防範。
公安部屬於中央政法委書記周永康主管，加上新華社稱李克強「視察」香港的破格說法，主管宣傳的李長春難辭其咎，周、李二人都是江派主將。《蘋果日報》質疑李克強是否遭人陷害，還是他的對手以「保護」之名抹黑他。
國家主席候選人習近平也遭到批評。時事評論員未普指出，美國副總統拜登訪華，和習近平套近乎、拉關係。21號拜登向都江堰青城山高中的學生們作演講，習近平卻興趣索然、心不在焉。
拜登演講結束後，習近平向在場的31名高中生，引述毛澤東的語錄：「世界是你們的，也是我們的，但是歸根結底是你們的。」等等。
2009年2月習近平出訪墨西哥時，指責那些「吃飽了沒事幹的外國人」，總是對中國指手畫腳。2009年10月習近平訪問德國，向默克爾總理贈送江澤民專著。此外，賴昌星遠華走私案期間，習近平當時擔任福建省委副書記、代省長，外界指他也涉案。
伍凡：「現在習近平能不能最終確定，他在沒有正式接任之前都可能有變動，因為他還沒有到時間，現在是備位，中間任何時候都可以變動，也有可能接下去，也有可能不接，現在不知道，因為有賴昌星這把刀在他頭上。」
《博訊網》披露北京外交部的消息時指出，在中共內部對接班人都沒有把握、還在爭議時，拜登就高調肯定了某個接班人，實在讓很多中國學者跌破了眼鏡。
《中國事務》主編伍凡指出，牽涉賴昌星案的還有賈慶林、賀國強、賈廷安等人，目前都受制於胡錦濤。十八大除了習近平，政治局常委中的江系人馬都將因超齡下台，而胡錦濤則很可能沿襲江澤民，繼續連任中央軍委主席兩年。
新唐人記者常春、李元翰採訪報導。
===
Youth League Faction Seizes Power
The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
is making changes to its provincial leadership
before its 18th National People』s Congress.
The Youth League faction (League faction), which is closely
linked to Hu Jintao, has been gaining influence,
with a majority of China』s provinces being governed
by League faction members.
After Jiang Zemin』s alleged death and Lai Chanxing』s extradition,
analysts believe that the power of Jiang』s faction is dwindling,
and Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are gaining ground.
Xinhua News Agency reported that the governor of Hebei,
Chen Quanguo replaced Zhang Qingli as CCP secretary in Tibet.
Zhang is scheduled to take over as the CCP secretary
of Hebei Province.
Both League faction members Luo Baoyou and Qin Guangrong,
were appointed secretaries of Hainan and Yunnan, respectively.
Zhang Qingli, a CCP hardliner that governed in Tibet,
used his authority to violently suppress the 2008 Lhasa Uprising.
Kate Saunders, spokesperson for the Free Tibet organization said,
“A change in Party secretaries does not mean
that the CCP has changed its policy on Tibet."
Chen Quanguao was the deputy governor when Li Keqiang was
governor of Henan Province, so he is regarded as Li』s trusted aide.
In 2009, Chen became the governor of Hebei Province.
Current changes at the governor and ministerial levels
also include provincial CCP vice-secretary positions of
Hainan and Ningxia Province, Yunnan, Jiangsu,
who is also the director of the PLA military court.
Other personnel changes on the provincial and ministerial level
will take place more gradually, from now on.
Taiwanese media quoted information sources by saying,
“It is highly possible for Inner Mongolia』s CCP secretary,
Hu Chunhua and Jilin』s CCP secretary, Sun Zhengcai,
to be re-appointed to new posts,
such as vice-premier or Beijing』s secretary.
Wu Fang, editor-in-chief of China Affairs magazine:
“Recently, four to five provincial leaders have been replaced,
with the League faction on the rise and Jiang』s clique on the decline.
I believe this is normal, because Jiang Zemin is dying,
thus his followers need to find a new master,
giving way for others to assume their positions."
Analysts believe that the recent Beidaihe Meeting
has favored Hu Jintao』s League faction.
Soon after the meeting, Hu visited Shenzhen and Guangzhou,
strongly supporting Guangdong』s CCP secretary, Wang Yang,
who is allegedly considered by the League faction
as a candidate for general secretary of the CCP.
Another strong figure in the League faction, Li Keqiang,
visited Hong Kong as a “warm-up exercise”
prior to his Chinese premier inauguration.
Although he brought 36 gifts to Hong Kong,
his visit sparked public protests, due to overly tightened security
measures that restricted people』s rights to demonstrate
and the freedom of press.
Hong Kong』s Apple Daily quoted sources, saying,
“Before Li』s arrival, at least two deputy ministers of public security
went to Hong Kong to physically arrange for Li』s security.
The Ministry of Public Security is controlled by Zhou Yongkang,
the CCP』s secretary of Political and Judiciary Committee.
Xinhua referred to Li』s visit as “inspecting Hong Kong"
and propaganda chief, Li Changchun, was responsible for this.
Zhou Yongkang and Li Changchun are in Jiang』s faction.
The designated next CCP president, Xi Jingping,
was also criticized.
Political commentator Wei Pu said that when U.S. Vice President,
Joe Biden, gave a speech to high school students in Dujiangyan
Xi Jingping seemed to lose interest,
and appeared to be absent-minded.
After Biden』s speech, Xi quoted Mao Zedong to the students,
“The world is yours, as well as ours, but ultimately is yours."
On his visit in Mexico in February 2009, Xi accused “foreigners
with full bellies and nothing to do" of finding fault with China.
On his visit to Germany in Oct. 2009, Xi gave Chancellor Merkel
a copy of Jiang Zemin』s works, as a gift.
It is common knowledge that, Xi, was the vice-secretary and acting
governor of Fujian when Lai Changxing was smuggling goods.
It is said that Xi Jingping was also involved in Lai』s case.
Wu Fang: “It is still uncertain whether Xi Jingping
will succeed to the presidency.
Before his official inauguration, things are still up in the air,
as his term has not ended
and small changes could cause him to either succeed or fail
at his bid to the presidency.
Due to his dubious association with Lai Changxing,
things are still not clear right now."
Boxun revealed that according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry,
while the CCP is still engaged in bitter internal debates
regarding Hu』s successor, Biden offered his opinion on
who he thinks should be appointed Hu』s successor,
which really surprised a lot of Chinese scholars.
Wu Fang pointed out that Jia Qingling, He Guoqiang
and Jia Yanan, who were also involved in the Lai Changxing case,
are currently being restrained by Hu Jintao.
On the 18th Congress, besides Xi Jingping, Jiang』s faction
members in the Politburo Standing Committee will step down,
as they are considered too old, according to a strict age policy.
Similar to Jiang, Hu Jintao could still continue to be
chair of the CCP』s Military Committee, for two more years.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Yuanhan and Zhou Tian.
