採訪/常春 編輯/尚燕 後製/柏妮
China Premier Wen Jiabo’s Economic Warning
On July 14, the Premier Wen Jiabao chaired an economic
meeting in Chengdu, attended by leaders from Henan, Hunan,
Guangxi, Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces.
During the meeting, Wen issued this month’s 2nd warning
about China’s economic drop.
Wen said that China’s economic rebound was not yet stable
and economic hardship could continue for a period of time.
Duan Shaoyi, Beijing Normal University lecturer, analyzed
that China’s economic development in the next few years
would be limited by four aspects and that it would be hard
to beat the last decade’s development.
[Duan Shaoyi, Beijing Normal University lecturer]:
“Firstly, China’s property bubble is now very serious.
Secondly, state-owned enterprises are increasingly stronger
and have developed well, but not private businesses,
which are becoming more difficult to develop.
Thirdly, the US sub-prime mortgage crisis and European
economic recession has affected China’s exportation.
Forthly, China’s financial sector is underdeveloped,
so private enterprises cannot get their funding from banks.”
July 13—the National Statistic Bureau released data showing
that China’s second-quarter economic growth had fallen to a 3-year low of 7.6%.
In addition, China’s Customs Statistics shows that import and
export figures had both decreased compared to June, with the import rate falling by 8.9%.
The fall in figures indicate a drop in China’s domestic demand
for the import for oil, energy and raw materials.
However, Wen Jiabao claims that, currently, the economic
growth rate is still within the target range set early this year and stabilization policies were taking effect.
Regarding Wen’s remark, Cao An, political and economic
commentator, tells a different story.
Cao An says that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has
always publicized the positive aspects of China’s economy
but has never mentioned the negative aspects, and that
the CCP have covered up the truth.
Many western scholars consider Wen’s remarks that the
“economy remains stable yet faces huge downward pressure”
as the most serious statement since Deng Xiaoping’s remarks
in 1978 that “China walks to the edge of economic collapse”.
[Cao An]: “The economic reality is much worse than
is publicized and the entire situation is more serious.
Actually, Wen’s remarks indirectly reflect that China’s
economic trend is taking an irreversible downslide.”
Overseas media commented that the timing of the latest
slowdown was especially awkward for the CCP,
who were trying to enforce calm, ahead of its handover of
power before the 18th Congress.
Job losses are eroding China’s economic gains, which are
what underpin the CCP’s claim to power.
More Job losses could fuel sentiments, adding to increased
pressure for political change.
[Cao An, political and economic commentator]:
“The CCP has talked about one issue for a few decades.
The CCP claims its power without an election, but during its
ruling period, the development of China’s economy has become a support of their claim.
If the economy faces a problem, the CCP’s legitimacy
will be widely doubted.”
Xu Jin, a Chinese Financial Times columnist says,
the CCP was over optimistic at the beginning of 2012.
The economic policy was tightened and the CCP failed to
adjust it in time, so later the situation became worse,
and lead to an emergency adjustment of the monetary policy.
The current situation and data indicates that it’s time to
adjust policies, rather than signaling stability.
Xu Jin believes that there is no doubt for China’s economic
landing, but some argument about methods exist.
Xu points out that there are no differences between Chinese
and U.S. enterprises—both have the ability for self-repair.
The Chinese regime’s over-action has weakened its ability
for self-repair, and the Chinese economy relies on the CCP’s assisting in investment.