採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製/周天
Decline Of China’s Manufacturing Activity Affirms A Deteriorating Economy
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) reported a small
improvement in China’s manufacturing activity in July.
At the same time HSBC’s independent survey reported
a drop in China’s Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI).
This indicated that “Chinese manufacturers have to
face a notably worse business environment”.
Analysts comment that the decline of manufacturing activity
is definitely a great shock to China’s export-oriented economy.
Let’s see the following report.
According to the Financial Times’ report,
HSBC announced on Aug 1st that
China’s PMI of July dropped from June’s 48.2 to
47.7, reaching its lowest level in the recent 11 months.
Radio France Internationale (RFI) also quoted
a Reuters report that,
China’s output index declined to 10-month low and
remained in contraction for a second month;
the new orders sub-index also fell to its lowest level
in 11 months.
The survey also suggested that the market demand for China’s
product had become weaker both inside and outside China.
Exporters reported that the order numbers from Europe,
Southeast Asia and the United States had all dropped compared
to the same period of last year.
With all this being reported overseas, in the meantime the
CCP reported a PMI increase from June’s 50.1 to July’s 50.3.
PMI is an indicator of economic development.
If the number is over 50, there is an improvement in economic
activities, and a number below 50 suggests a decline.
ANZ Banking Group’s Chief Economist of Greater China Liu
Ligang said the CCP’s official PMI was likely to be distorted;
This might lead to mistakes in decisions such as missing
the right time to make policy adjustment.
Gong Shengli, researcher at a Chinese financial think-tank:
”Among 198 United Nations member states in the world,
no more than four states are the same as China in
incorporating the party’s cost into the national budget.
This burden is applied over the Chinese people.
Compared to other states’ legal systems,
this is an additional cost for no reason at all.”
Gong Shengli commented that,
besides the dual party-and-administration system,
China also has seven tiers in its administrative structure,
much more than that of Britain or France which only have between three and four tiers.
This results in a much higher administrative cost.
Along with the monopoly of state-owned companies,
all these invisibly raise prices of Chinese products.
Gong further said, after the US-oriented plan of free trade
area of the Asia-Pacific and Europe-America starts in October,
China’s export would face a more deadly shock.
Back in 2009, Zhang Weiying, Chinese economist and head of
the Guanghua School of Management at Beijing University,
pointed out that export was a significantly high proportion
of 37% in China’s GDP of 2008.
An AFP report quoted an HSBC bank expert that
China’s manufacturing industry was obviously seeing
a worse economic environment in July: market demand continues to be weak.
Dropping of order numbers becomes steeper; the number of
job opportunities also drops at a highest rate since March 2009.
Xie Tian, Professor of Aiken Business School,
University of South Carolina, stated that
Chinese products were known by the whole world
as being cheap and of low-quality.
If the CCP continues to ignore protecting intellectual
property rights and striking at counterfeit products,
it will never develop its own core technology and
China will never be able to convert into a technology-
oriented state from a manufacturing-oriented state.
China will remain trapped in the current dilemma.
Gong Shengli: ”Despite the huge amount of money printed
by the CCP, China’s export is still declining.
Among the three driving forces of China’s economy of
fixed asset investments, retail sales and exports,
only the first one is stimulated and there is no improvement
for the other two. You can imagine what the results will be.”
Gong Shengli believes that, the CCP has destroyed
China’s traditional cultural norms.
Currently, the qualities of its economic operation, products
and moral standards are all among the worst in the world.
Gong said, China’s “money shortage” occurring
on June 20th was in no way an accident.
Some big things will happen to China’s economy and
now it has reached the critical moment.
Weeks ago, a photo showed a Syrian girl with a slogan saying
“China (the CCP), your morality is worse than your products”.
This was a protest against the CCP’s government.
Professor Xie Tian: ”The CCP is becoming increasingly
unpopular among Chinese people.
So grudges and resentment continue to accumulate
in the entire society.
This is leading to worse conflicts between
the government and the people.
Economic factors can be the blasting fuse to cause
further instability of Chinese society.”
Gong Shengli made a concluding remark that,
if Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang don’t reform to change
the current situation of “party over government”,
the CCP will end the same way as the Soviet Union.