【禁聞】300「意見領袖」主導輿論 中共恐慌

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【新唐人2014年01月01日訊】中國社科院日前發佈《社會藍皮書》指出,大約300名全國性的「意見領袖」影響著互聯網,他們在網路上的影響力超過媒體和政府。評論認為,中國民眾對自由言論的傾向和追求,讓中共極度恐慌。

中國社科院發佈的《社會藍皮書:2014年中國社會形勢分析與預測》中,有關互聯網輿論的部分指出,在中共這次互聯網整治中,一些「大V」名人被清理,但網路「意見領袖」仍存在。

《藍皮書》說,中國共有103家微博客網站,用戶賬號總數達到12億,其中1萬 9000個賬戶的粉絲超過10萬,3300個賬戶的粉絲超過100萬,有200個賬戶的粉絲超過1,000萬。

他們中大約有300名全國性的「意見領袖」,主導著網上輿論,當中有29人出自黨政軍系統,120人有過體制內職業經歷。

如,知名網友「十年砍柴」,曾工作於國家某部委,因國務院機構精簡分流到媒體,後成為獨立專欄作家和網路名人。

這些人當中,絕大多數生活在一線大城市,在北京的佔63%,男性佔90%,上世紀50年代到70年代出生的佔83%。他們的影響力主要體現在微博上,部分人的影響力超過媒體和政府。

而多數「意見領袖」從二線區域闖入一線城市,對草根社會的觀察和體驗有切膚之痛,他們的個人經歷對年輕人也有吸引力。

中共喉舌《人民網》輿情監測室12月30號分析說:網路「意見領袖」在一定程度上成為民意的代言人,對政府陳情,施加輿論壓力。分析建議,客觀評估他們的建設性和合作精神,用中共「統一戰線」手法去團結包容他們,減少他們對體制的對抗性。

而北京時政觀察人士華頗指出,對中國輿論起主導作用的遠不止300名網路「意見領袖」,許多中國百姓對中共體制的強烈不滿,不是用「統戰」手法能解決的。

北京時政觀察人士華頗:「這是官方的一種無奈,再者,對網路的整治,只是一個取得階段性成果,還要『宜將勝勇追窮寇』,(中共當局)對網絡存在的這些『大V』來講,還要繼續的整肅,絕不能半途而廢。」

時事評論員邢天行指出,西方國家的互聯網比中國發達,但是西方媒體的話語權,並沒有被互聯網取代。而中共用一言堂控制輿論導向,才引發中國民眾的反感。

時事評論員邢天行:「你越是那樣鉗制聲音,那麼你越是遭到拋棄了,而在西方國家它不存在這個問題,所以它不管互聯網怎麼發達,它都不可能取代主流媒體的作用,因為它那個主流媒體一向都是民眾有甚麼聲音,甚麼權利的要求,它都要在那上去發聲的。」

邢天行指出,民眾對自由言論的傾向和追求,讓中共極度恐慌,中共怕會動搖它的地位,或者動搖了影響力。

中共「十八大」後,新領導人高唱反腐,中國網路上也掀起了反腐浪潮,網民們實名舉報了一大批中共貪官、淫官、表(錶)哥、表(錶)叔等,民間要求「官員財產公示」的呼聲,更是一浪高過一浪。

但是,2013年8月,中共當局以打擊所謂「網路謠言」為名,短短几天內抓捕了數以千計的網路活躍人士。網路「大V」薛蠻子被刑拘,罪名卻是「嫖娼」。9月10號,「兩高」—-最高法院和最高檢察院再出臺惡法,所謂「誹謗信息」被轉發500次可判刑。

華頗認為,目前中國社科院發佈的這個《藍皮書》,就是呼籲中共對網路打壓、封殺還要繼續,還要加強,不可放鬆。

華頗:「『防民之口甚於防川』這是古訓,我想這種打壓的後果是非常嚴重的,可以說它可以取一時之功效,但是長遠來講,對官方來講危害是巨大的,不是那句話嗎?不在沉默中死亡,就在沉默中爆發。」

華頗指出,等到人們對中共積怨積壓到一定程度之後,人民就會揭竿而起,最後倒霉的是中共本身。

採訪編輯/李韻 後製/陳建銘

China Internet Opinion Leaders Continue to Concern Regime

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently
highlighted in the “Social Blue Book” that around
300 national opinion leaders have more influence
on the internet than the media and government.
Commentators consider that the Chinese people ‘s pursuit
is of deep concern for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
has published it ‘s “Social Blue Book: 2014
Society of China Analysis and Forecast.”

In the section on internet public opinion, it says
that although some prominent netizens have
been silenced, internet opinion leaders still exist.

The Blue Book said that China has 103 Chinese
micro-blog websites, and 1.2 billion user accounts.
Among those users accounts, there are 19,000
accounts who have fans of over 100,000 fans.
There are 3,300 accounts with 1 million fans,
and 200 accounts with over 10 million fans.

In addition, among these accounts, there are about 300
national opinion leaders dominating online public opinion.
29 people are from government and military systems, and
120 people having professional experience in the system.

For example, well-known netizen called
“10 years woodcutter” worked in a ministry.
They then became an independent columnist
and internet celebrity in the media.
This was through state council institutional reforms.

Among these people, the majority live in first-tier big cities.

63% live in Beijing, 90% are male, and 83%
were born between the1950s and 1970s.
Their influence is mainly in micro-blogging, with some
having greater influence than state media and the regime.

The majority of opinion leaders from second-tier
cities have experienced and witnessed deep suffering
at grass-roots levels, which speaks to young people.

On December 30, the CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily
public opinion monitoring room released a commentary.
To some extent, internet “opinion leaders" become public
spokespersons to petition the government and exert pressure.
The People ‘s Daily suggested using CCP “united front"
tactics to accommodate them, after there has been an
assessment of their ‘constructive and cooperative spirit’.

This, it stated, will reduce their antagonism with the system.

Beijing current affairs expert Hua Po, says that
it is not only the 300 online celebrities who play
the main role influencing public opinion in China.

Many Chinese civilians are strongly
dissatisfied with the CCP system.
This cannot be resolved by
using any “united front” method.

Hua Po: “This is kind of helplessness from the CCP.

What has been done through cracking down on
internet expression is just a short-term solution.
They will continue.

The CCP will carry on purging influential
bloggers, and will not stop half way.”

Current affairs commentator Xing Tianxing says that
Western countries ‘internet is more advanced than in China.
However, freedom of expression
wasn ‘t improved through the internet.
The CCP ‘s ‘one-voice rule ‘ controls
the direction of public opinion.
Thus, it continues to provoke public resentment.

Xing Tianxing: “The more the CCP controls freedom
of expression, the more the regime is renounced.
In Western countries, this problem is seen far less.

No matter how advanced social networks develop,
it couldn’t replace the role of mainstream media.
This is because public voices and rights are
able to be heard through mainstream media.”

Xing says that the public persist in seeking
their right for freedom of expression.
This continues to concern the CCP,
that it’s influence and power will be lost.

After the CCP 18th National Congress, the
new leadership vowed to fight corruption.
The internet began to vigorously echo this action.
Netizens reported on large numbers of corrupt officials.
Voices calling for the disclosure of officials’ continue
to be a strong feature of internet discussions.

In August 2013, the regime arrested thousands of online
activists, in the name of cracking down on “online rumors”.
This included the detention of influential blogger
Xue Manzi, under allegations of “hiring prostitutes”.
On September 10, the Supreme Court and Supreme
Procuratorate jointly introduced new measures.
It claimed that if a message is reposted over 500
times, the author will face arrest and imprisonement.

Hua Po says that the Blue Book suggests the
CCP will not ease suppression on the internet.
On the contrary, censorship will
be continued and strengthened.

Hua Po: “The ancient saying goes that it will
cause more harm to stop the free flow of
people’s thoughts, than to stop that of the rivers.

I think the outcomes of this suppression is serious.

It likely can be maintained in the short-term, but
in the long-term,it is very harmful for the regime.
Isn ‘t it a saying, to explode
in the silence or to die in it.”

Hua Po says that once complaints accumulate
to a critical point, people will uprise, and the
CCP will begin to suffer the consequences.

Interview & Edit/LiYun Post-Production/Chen Jianmin

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