【禁聞】專家:製造業下滑 中國經濟開年虛弱

FacebookPrintFont Size簡體

【新唐人2014年02月05日訊】中共官方統計數據顯示,中國製造業與非製造業商務活動的相關指數全數下滑。經濟學家指出,經過三十多年的改革開放,中國已經走出物資匱乏階段,中國多數產品和製造業已經達到相對飽和,只有轉向真正的市場經濟,才能找到新的經濟增長點。

大陸統計局和「中國物流與採購聯合會」,連續發佈製造業與非製造業榮枯報告,其中顯示,今年1月份,中國製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)為50.5%。相較去年12月的51%,回落了0.5個百分點。而去年11月的PMI指數則為51.4%。

另外,中國非製造業商務活動指數(PMI)為53.4%,比上個月回落1.2個百分點,創下23個月以來新低。

PMI指數高於50,表明製造業活動較為擴張,低於50則為萎縮。

北京「天則經濟研究所」所長助理段紹譯表示,PMI數據說明﹕中國未來相當長一段時間內經濟會不景氣,也說明在過去的一年裡,中國經濟增長已經受到很大影響。

北京「天則經濟研究所」所長助理段紹譯:主要是中國這些年改革開放以來,原來是一種短缺經濟時代,因為嚴重的短缺,在過去的二十多年裡面,可以說多數產品都是稀缺的。只要能做出來就會有人要。而到了今天,這個市場已經不斷的走向成熟,它需要真正按照經濟規律去辦事,找到新的經濟增長點,才可能使中國經濟持續增長。」

段紹譯表示,中國現在需要發現新的市場需求,並且進一步深化改革,才能刺激經濟的增長。他舉例說,美國企業家喬布斯發明蘋果手機,使手機行業歷經了一場革命,全球手機行業實現了巨大的經濟增長。

段紹譯:「而在我們中國,現在如果要進一步實現增長的話,政府第一方面應該要減少對經濟的干預,特別是要減少對企業的補貼,政府不要用老百姓納稅人的錢去辦企業。還應該給企業家更多的自由,讓企業家真正的按照市場經濟的規律來配置資源。這樣的話才能使經濟有更好的增長。」

製造業PMI綜合指數主要組成部分,包括新訂單、生產、從業人員、供應商配送時間、主要原材料庫存等因素。

而「澳新銀行」表示,中國1月份製造業PMI回落,主要是受到中國新年的影響。因為製造業早在1月31號大年初一前開始休假,工廠工人都返鄉過年去了。

但是段紹譯認為,黃曆新年放假只是影響生產的一個因素,不應該是製造業PMI回落的主要原因。

段紹譯:「其實現在企業都是以盈利為目地的。如果真正是有很大的訂單,有很好的需求的話,多數企業他們會加班加點,因為老百姓出來打工就是為了多賺幾塊錢。能賺錢的事……叫做重賞之下必有勇夫。只要真正能賺錢,企業基本上都不會停工。」

匯豐銀行1月30號宣佈,中國製造業1月份呈現萎縮,PMI指數為49.5%,是6個月來的首次萎縮。據報導,匯豐的調查以中小企業為主,而中共官方的製造業活動指數,則包含較多大型的國有企業。

英國《路透社》1月31號也報導說,中國PMI的下降,讓投資者們找到另外一個理由出售高風險資產。全球投資者已經對資本逃離新興市場感到緊張。

在過去一週,隨著投資者削減對發展中國家的金融賭注,以及預期美國將繼續減少貨幣寬鬆政策,新興市場的股票和貨幣被大量拋售。

中共統計局1月中公布,2013年,中國國內生產總值(GDP)增長7.7%,這顯示﹕中國經濟仍然處於10多年來增速最緩慢的一段時期。

同時,「澳新銀行」的經濟學專家在報告中說,「預計中國第一季度經濟增長將顯示一定程度的放緩」,「中國將下調年經濟增長目標到7%」。

採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/李勇

China’s Manufacturing Sectors in Decline, Economic Growth Drops

Official China data indicates that manufacturing and
non-manufacturing business activity has declined.

Economists highlight that after 30 years of policies
for reform and opening up, China has now stepped
away from the period of insufficient goods.

Most product and manufacturing
sectors are now relatively saturated.
It is suggested that only by turning into a true
market economy can new growth be found.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Federation
of Logistics & Purchasing has issued reports about
manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors status.

The report shows that China’s Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI) was down to 50.5% in January this year.
This is compared with December 2013
at 51%, and last Novembers PMI at 51.4%

Official figures show a non-manufacturing PMI drop to 53.4%.
This is the lowest since February 2012,
and a drop from 54.6% in December.

A PMI reading above 50% indicates expansion,
while a reading below 50% reflects contraction.

Duan Shaoyi, Assistant Director, Beijing Unirule Institution
of Economics says that this PMI indicates that China’s
economy may now enter a lonfg recession period.

The data also shows that over the past year,
China’s economic growth has been greatly affected.

Duan Shaoyi: “China has opened up reforms.
Economically, the market used to
be insufficient in available goods.
This is because of serious shortages of products over the
past 20 years, and was short of everything at the time.
Whatever goods were produced, someone would buy them.
Now the market has become more mature,
so it needs to follow new economic rules.
It needs to find new economic growth points, and
only with this, can China’s economy continue to rise."

Duan says that China should develop new market needs.
It should continue further reforms, which
can then stimulate economic growth.
Duan uses the example of Steve Jobs,
and Apple’s creation of the iPhone.
The mobile phone industry went through a revolution,
and this sector achieved a huge economic growth.

Duan Shaoyi: “However, in China, in order
to achieve further economic growth, the
government first needs to reduce intervention.
Particularly, it needs to reduce subsidies to enterprises.
The government shouldn’t always use
taxpayer’s money to run businesses.
The government also needs to give
entrepreneurs greater freedoms.
It needs to enable them to follow the rule of a
market economy, to be able to allocate resources.
By doing this, the economy can continue to grow."

The manufacturing PMI also has sub-indices.
These include indices for new orders, production,
employment, vendor deliveries, and raw material stocks.

Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) Bank
says that China’s PMI dropped in January.
This is thought to be mainly because
of the affect by Chinese New Year.
Manufacturing sectors started bank holidays
ahead of January 31, Chinese New Year’s day.
All employees returned to their homes to celebrate.

Duan Shaoyi believes that the Chinese New Year is only
one of the reasons that production has been affected.
It should not be the main reason that
causes manufacturing PMI to drop.

Duan Shaoyi: “Actually enterprises aim to make profit.
If they receive a large order, and high demand
for products, most enterprises will work extra hours.
Employees work for money. If there is a
chance to earn more, people will go for it.
As long as it can make some profits,
factories will not close on bank holidays."

On January 30, HSBC bank announced that
China’s manufacturing sector shrank in January.
The PMI was 49.5%, hitting a six-month low.
Sources say that HSBC’s survey focused
on small and medium sized enterprises.
China’s official PMI includes
larger state-owned enterprises.

On January 31, Reuters reported that
the PMI’s dropping reinforces concerns:
“as global investors already nervous about capital flight in
emerging markets, find another reason to sell riskier assets."

“Emerging market stocks and currencies
were sold off in the past week…
investors cut financial bets in developing nations,
in anticipation that the US will continue to move
to less easy monetary policy." said Reuters.

China’s NBS announced in January
that in 2013, China’s GDP rose 7.7%.
It shows that the economic growth
has been at it’s slowest in 10 years.

ANZ economists indicated in a report that,
“we expect China’s first-quarter economic
growth to show a certain degree of slowdown."
“China should lower its annual economic growth target to 7%."

Interview & Edit/QinXue Post-Production/LiYong

相關文章
評論