【禁聞】兩個失業率打擂臺 發改委刪數據

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【新唐人2014年07月30日訊】中國「人力資源社會保障部」上週五表示,二季度末,城鎮登記失業率為4.08%,不過在此之前,「國家發展和改革委員會」公布的失業率數據,高出上面「人社部」的失業率一個百分點。詭異的是,發改委很快刪除了這一數據。經濟學家指出,中共官方公布的城市失業率毫無意義,因為不管經濟好壞,失業率永遠不會改變,總維持在4%。

在中國「人力資源社會保障部」發佈第二季度失業率的前一天,美國《華爾街日報》就評論說,中共官方公布的失業率被廣泛視為無用,因為不管好日子、壞日子,它幾乎都不動。這個數字,只涵蓋那些在本地福利中心註冊的工人,而不包含大量的農民工。

中國浙江財經大學教授謝作詩:「整體來說,我們的失業率一直是在4左右,多年來,不管經濟形勢好壞,始終都是在4左右。所以首先這個數字真實性怎麼樣,大家有些想法。第二個問題是,它是一個城市登記失業,如果是農民工,他不進入這個口徑,從這個意義上講,這個失業率和國際上一般的失業率不是一個概念,它對中國經濟形勢的反映,就不那麼全面,不那麼準確。」

2008年,當全球金融危機摧毀3千萬中國製造業就業的時候,這個失業率幾乎沒有怎麼升高。大量農民工回到農村家鄉,洩漏了失業的真實程度。

《華爾街日報》評論說,中國真實的失業率是一個國家機密。北京領導人每個月審視一個單獨的就業調查,但是這個數據通常不公布。在四月份,一名官員說漏嘴,說失業率是 5.17%,這比官方公布的數字高出一個百分點。

中共總理李克強本人在去年9月一篇專欄文章當中提及失業率,當時他說2013年上半年失業率是5%。

發改委」上週三公布,6月末,全中國31個大城市城鎮調查失業率為5.05%,這也是中共官方首次正式發佈城鎮調查失業率數據。「發改委」聲稱,這個數字已經連續4個月下降。可是,這個消息目前已從「發改委」網站撤下,相關網頁已無法打開。

中國「浙江財經大學」教授謝作詩認為,所謂失業率連續四個月下降的說法,跟民眾的直觀感受相差太遠。謝作詩身邊的企業家都在談論裁員。

謝作詩:「短期現在經濟形勢困難,困難的話應該失業率上升才對,對大家的直觀感受太差,就可能引起大家的懷疑,大家覺得你這個數據是不是真實的。我昨天還跟好幾個企業老總吃飯,大家想到的都是裁員,其中有一個老總說,他再挺兩個月不行,他要裁一百人。」

針對「發改委」刪除近期的失業率,北京「天則經濟研究所」所長助理段紹譯分析說,或許這個數字對於官員來說仍然太過刺眼。

北京天則經濟研究所所長助理段紹譯:「因為一個失業率的高低,它一方面反映經濟的景氣(程度),另外反映地方政府官員的政績,中國考核指標有時候可能造成影響社會安定,數據太高的話,造成老百姓對政府不滿,所以有些數據還是不宜讓老百姓知道,他們不一定希望讓老百姓知道。」

據《中國證券網》報導,今年全國高校畢業生總數達到727萬人,創下歷史新高,堪稱「史上最難就業季」。「人力資源和社會保障部」新聞發言人李忠介紹,上半年有97萬求職者與用人單位達成就業意向,其中高校畢業生56萬人。56萬僅僅是727萬畢業生中的7%,不足一成畢業生就業,高校畢業生就業壓力巨大。

澳大利亞雜誌《商業旁觀者》,7月21號發表有關中國失業率和勞工短缺的文章。作者根據一項全中國勞動力調查和就業輔導機構的統計數字,計算102個大城市的失業率,結果,在今年第一季度,包括農民工在內的大城市失業率為8.7%﹔排除農民工的失業率為6.9%。而今年第一季度之前的失業率也接近這個數字,暗示高失業率一直持續。

採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/肖顏

The CCP Replaced The Five Percent Unemployment Rate Report With A Four Percent Version

On Friday, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Ministry
of Human Resources and Social Security (MOHRSS) said
that the registered unemployment rate will be 4.08 percent
in Chinese cities by the end of 2014 second quarter.
The figure is 1 percent lower than that announced earlier
by the CCP’s National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC).

Strange is that the NDRC quickly deleted reports
about the previously announced number.
Economists comment that the CCP’s official urban
unemployment rate is meaningless as it is always
around 4 percent and never changes no matter
how China’s economy looks.

One day before the MOHRSS announced China’s quarter two
unemployment rate, the Wall Street Journal published
an article saying the CCP’s official unemployment rate
is widely regarded as a meaningless number.
The report says the number almost never changes
under any circumstances.
The number announced by the CCP only counts for those
employees registered at local social welfare center,
and does not take into account the large group
of migrant workers.

Xie Zuoshi, Professor at Zhejiang University of Finance
and Economics: “Our overall unemployment rate is always
around 4 percent these years, no matter how
the economy looks.

Therefore whether the number is real or not,
our people are in doubt of it.
In addition, the number refers to 『registered urban
unemployment.’
Migrant workers from the countryside are not
included in that system.
In this sense, our employment rate is defined differently
then the one used in the world.
The index is thus not a comprehensive or accurate indication
of China’s economic situation.”
In 2008, the global financial crisis destroyed 30 million jobs
in China’s manufacturing industry.
However, the official employment rate saw little increase.

However, China’s real employment picture was clearly
shown by the massive home rush of migrant workers.

The Wall Street Journal article commented that China’s
real unemployment rate is a “state secret.”
Beijing’s party leaders look at an independent employment
report every month, which is never made public.
In April, a CCP official spilled the beans when he said
the unemployment rate was 5.17 percent.
A number 1 percent higher than that which was
previously announced.

The CCP premier Li Keqiang also mentioned the figure
in a column published last September.
Li said China’s unemployment rate was five percent
in the first half of 2013.

Last Wednesday, the CCP’s NDRC announced that
by late June the urban unemployment rate among
31 major Chinese cities was 5.05 percent.

This was the first time that the CCP officially announced
urban unemployment statistics.

The NDRC said the rate had dropped
for four consecutive months.
However, the news was later removed from
the NDRC website and was no longer available online.

Xie Zuoshi, professor at Zhejiang University of Finance
and Economics, says a drop in the unemployment rate
in the last four months does not conform
to what the Chinese public sees.
All of Xie’s friends were talking about layoffs
during the period.

Xie Zuoshi: “Now we have economic troubles
and the unemployment rate should rise in such case.
Therefore our people are in doubt of the authenticity
of the number, as it complete deviates from their intuitions.

Yesterday I had dinner together with several
enterprise managers.
All of them were talking about layoffs.

One of them said if nothing turns around in the next
two months he would have to fire 100 employees.”

Assistant Director of Beijing Unirule Institute of Economics
Duan Shaoyi comments on the NDRC’s taking back
of its unemployment rate report.

Duan says probably a rate of five percent was still
too “dazzling” for the CCP officials.

Duan Shaoyi: “The reason is, the unemployment rate
not only reflects the economic situation, but also relates
to the local official’s political record.

The CCP always has concerns over the effect
of those indicators on social stability.
If the reported unemployment rate is too high,
Chinese civilians will grow more discontent with the CCP.
Therefore they don’t want to publicly reveal
the real figures.”

Cnstock.com, a Chinese stock website, reported that a record
high 7.27 million will graduate from Chinese colleges
this year.
This makes 2014 “the most difficult year to find a job.”

The CCP’s MOHRSS spokesman Li Zhong says 970,000 job
applicants successfully signing contracts with employers
during the first half of 2014.

Among those applicants, only 560,000 are college graduates,
which is only seven percent of 7,270,000.
With less than 10 percent of graduates getting jobs,
the employment pressure is unprecedentedly huge.

On July 21, Australian magazine Business Spectator
published an article about China’s unemployment rate
and labor shortage.

The article estimates the unemployment rate in 102 major
Chinese cities according to a nationwide labor survey
as well as statistics from job placement services.

The author finds that, “The unemployment rate,
including rural migrants in major cities in the first quarter
of 2014, is 8.7 percent; excluding them is 6.9 percent.”

“Unemployment rates before the first quarter of 2014
are also close to these numbers, suggesting
the continued high unemployment rate.”

Interview & Edit/QinXue Post-Production/XiaoYan

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