【禁聞】中共三軍同期大軍演 攘外?安內?

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【新唐人2014年07月30日訊】中共海、陸、空三軍正在各地舉行罕見的同期大規模軍演。海軍將在三大海域演習,陸軍則在六大軍區進行持續三個月的跨軍區實彈演習,空軍也在華東和華中地區進行軍演。中共為甚麼在當前舉行大規模軍演呢?請看分析報導。

中共海軍最近在渤海、黃海、東海和北部灣海域同期舉行軍演:7月25號至8月1號,在渤海海峽、黃海北部軍演;7月26號至8月1號,則是在北部灣海域進行實彈射擊訓練;7月29號至8月2號,還將在東海海面舉行實彈射擊演習。

與此同時,陸軍演習時間更長。六大軍區開展了持續三個月10場的跨軍區實彈演習:從7月15號起,南京、瀋陽、廣州、北京、成都、濟南軍區的10支遠端火箭彈、炮兵、防空旅進入6個訓練基地,持續三個月時間。

同一時期,中共的空軍也在華東和華中地區,進行為期26天的軍事演練。

目前,華東和華中地區已實行大規模空中管制,至少12個主要機場發生了大規模的取消或延誤航班現象。

美國中文雜誌《中國事務》主編伍凡指出,中共政治腐敗、混亂,造成中國經濟下滑,社會也動盪不定。中共唯一能使用的力量就是軍隊,用軍事演習來顯示共產黨還掌握著政權。

美國中文雜誌《中國事務》主編伍凡:「第一個目標是要保護這個政權,保衛這個政權。因為中共自己的政令不暢通、政令不出中南海。在這種狀況下,怎麼顯示出你的政權還在你共產黨手上呢?那用軍隊來顯示這個力量。」

伍凡認為,中共還想通過這次軍演,掀起一個民族主義、愛國主義的浪潮,把民眾的怨聲、經濟下滑、失業等等問題沖淡,把矛盾轉移。同時,向日本、越南、菲律賓等國亮一下肌肉。

實際上,中共這次跨軍區的軍事演習,已經引發周邊國家的疑慮。

美國海軍學院教授余茂春認為,這些軍演很可能加劇周邊國家對中共的恐懼,促使他們聯合起來,把中共當成一個共同的威脅點。這給中共在地緣政治的角力中帶來適得其反的效果。

而日本各界,對中共在東海海域的軍演更是關注。尤其,中共喉舌媒體7月25號,也就是中日「甲午戰爭」爆發120週年紀念日,還發表文章說:「甲午戰爭永遠是中國人心中無法抹去的痛。面對日本右翼分子的挑釁,我們不打第一槍,但也絕不會讓你打第二槍!」

台灣政治大學國際事務學院教授丁樹範:「我不覺得跟日本的緊張有關,也(不)跟甲午戰爭有關。目前中國軍隊要做一些改革,那麼通過這種演習來作為驗證,我覺得第一個可能的理由;第二個理由就是說,因為從去年開始,中共軍隊在反貪腐。」

台灣「政治大學國際事務學院」教授丁樹範指出,中共在「6.4鎮壓」後,為了穩定軍心,曾進行大規模的軍事演習。而當前的這場軍演也是想把軍心穩定下來,因為軍隊反貪造成了人心浮動。

目前軍中落馬的最高階官員——前軍委副主席徐才厚,今年6被開除黨籍,移送司法處理。中共媒體透露,徐才厚主掌軍中高層陞遷十多年,並自恃有前黨魁江澤民作後臺,視前任軍委主席胡錦濤為無物,大肆在軍中安插自己人,賣官發財。

徐才厚落馬後,他和被提拔官員間的腐敗關係也被部分曝光。例如,徐才厚僅提拔谷俊山做總後副部長,就獲得現金4000萬人民幣、和上海4套別墅豪宅等。

另外媒體還披露,當局曾從徐才厚家中搜出一個未開封的皮箱,箱內裝滿1000萬元人民幣,其中還有一份四川省軍區前政委、少將葉萬勇的個人簡歷。

丁樹範認為,徐才厚提拔的人太多,反腐使那些受他提拔的人,特別是那些給他送錢的人心情浮動,現任軍委主席習近平是想通過這次演習,讓他們的心穩定下來。

採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製/郭敬

Purpose of Chinese Drills: Threat Abroad or Reassure The Military?

China is holding large-scale exercises of Navy,
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Air Force.
Naval exercise will be held in three sea zones;
PLA will exercise across six military regions
for three consecutive months.

Air force will exercise in Eastern and Central China.
What’s the reason that China holds drills?
Let’s take a look.

The naval drills are held in Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea,
East China Sea and Beibu Gulf.
The drills will take place in Bohai Strait, Northern Yellow Sea
from July 25 to August 1.
Firing exercises held from July 26 to August 1
in Northern Gulf water; and
the Eastern Sea firing drills held from July 29 to August 2.

The PLA drills would be the longest.

Six military regions started across region live-fire
exercises 10 times for three-months.
From July 15, ten remote rockets, artillery, air defense brigade
from Nanjing, Shenyang, Guangzhou, Beijing, Chengdu and
Ji’nan have entered into six training bases.

Meanwhile, the Air Force located in East and Central region
of China for a 26-day exercise.

Now air control has launched in East and Central regions.
At least 12 airports had flights cancelled or delayed.

Chris Wu, US-based chief editor of China Affairs magazine
says that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is corrupt and
in chaos.

It has caused a declining economy and social unrest.

The only force the CCP can use is military,
using drills to show its power still in control.

Chris Wu: “The CCP’s first goal is to protect its power.

Because the decree couldn’t be passed smoothly,
there is a saying “decree couldn’t be sent out of Zhongnanhai.”
Under this circumstance, how does the CCP show its power
still in control?
It uses military drills to show strength.”

Chris Wu says that through the drills, the CCP intends
to stir up a wave of patriotism.
In order to divert civilians’ anger from domestic problems,
economic decline, unemployment and more.
At the same time, to show its muscle
to Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and other countries.

Actually, CCP’s military drills have provoked worries
in its neighboring countries.

Yu Maochun, Professor of US Naval Academy comments that
the drills would possibly increase the worries
to its surrounding countries.

It would push these countries to work together,
to consider the CCP as their common threat.
This would bring the opposite results to the CCP
in its political struggle with other countries.

Japan has more concerns about Chinese drills
held in the East Sea region.
The state-run media published an article on July 25,
the date of the 120th anniversary of the First Sino-Japanese War.
The article said that “the war becomes a painful scar
in Chinese people’s mind.
Facing Japanese rightists’ challenges, we won’t shoot the gun first,
but absolutely not allow you to fire the second shot.”

Ding Shufan, Professor of College of International Affairs,
Taiwan: “I neither think the drills link with tensions between
the two countries, nor with Sino-Japanese War.

Now Chinese military need reforms,
so through the exercises to verify it.
I think this is the first reason.

The second reason is that from last year,
the CCP military was fighting corruption.”

Ding Shufan says that after the CCP cracked down students’
protest on June 4, 1989,
it has held a large-scale exercise to reassure soldiers.

The current drills are also to stabilize the military.
Because fight corruption has stirred up people’s mind.

Xu Caihou, the top military official has been dismissed.

He was expelled from the CCP in June and has been
handed over to court.
The state-run media revealed that Xu has controlled
the military’s top level promotion for more than a decade.
He relied on Jiang Zemin’s support, ignoring Hu Jintao,
the former Chairman of military commission.
Xu also promoted his allies in the military,
selling military ranks to gain the wealth.

After Xu Caihou’s downfall, his corruption with military
officials whom he promoted, was partially exposed.
For example, Xu appointed Gu Junshan as a logistic chief,
thus Xu has accepted bribes of 40 million yuan cash and
four luxury apartments in Shanghai.

Media also revealed that the regime has found a leather case
without seals in Xu’s home.
There was 10 million yuan cash in the case.

A personal profile of Ye Wanyong, the former political
commissar of Sichuan military region, was also in the case.

Ding Shufan says that Xu promoted too many people.

The anti-corruption campaign has stirred up the minds
of officials who had been promoted by Xu.

Xi Jinping, the current military leader wants to
reassure the military via the drills.

Interview/ChenHan Edit/ShongFeng Post-Production/GuoJin

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