渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)經濟學家李煒指出，如果決策者將高債務水平的問題，簡單歸咎於之前下調存款準備金率和利率的行動，是不公平的。因為這當中存在國家對銀行業的壟斷、缺乏利率市場化等諸多問題。 這次央行注資5000億，不太可能提振市場人氣。
CCP Central Bank Pumps Money,
The Authorities in Dilemma
The month of August saw a sharp decline
in China’s industrial growth rate.
Now China’s economy is again at a crossroads.
Massive stimulus will likely lead to a surge in inflation,
but without it the economy will crumble.
Experts say that mainland China’s Central Bank’s recent
pumping of 500 billion yuan ($81 billion) into China’s five
major banks reflects the dilemma Chinese authorities face.
However, it cannot solve the issues the economy is facing.
A Chinese banking executive has told the Wall Street Journal
that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s central bank recent
500 billion yuan injection of liquidity to five state-owned banks,
to deal with worse-than-expected domestic economic slowdown.
The capital injection was provided in the form of
three monthly low-interest loans,
with a scale equivalent to 50 basis points down
for deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks.
The executive also said although the fixed loans
don’t have specific conditions, the central bank will
guide the banks to loan the money to areas
considered by the authorities as very important to the economy.
Frank Xie, business professor at University of South Carolina
Aiken: “It reflects their dilemma.
Obviously they want to stimulate the economy,
but they dare not do too much.
They also know the danger of inflation.
They dare not just do nothing,
but also dare not to do too much.
They are in fact still at the most urgent moment
facing the economic crisis."
Earlier this year, the CCP released economic data
showing a series of disappointing results.
In August, above-scale industrial added value
increased 6.9 percent, the lowest since December 2008.
In addition, the fixed asset investment growth rate
from January to August was down 0.5 percent
compared to the growth rate from January to July,
continuing the steady downward trend on the past two years.
The scale of social financing in August was 626.7 billion yuan
($102 billion) lower than the same period last year;
increase of consumer price index also hit the newest low
in four months; meanwhile, PMI comprehensive economic
indicators fell 0.6 percent, non-manufacturing
new orders index fell to 50, a record low since May 2009
and imports fell by 2.4 percent year over year.
On Sept. 18, the CCP’s Bureau of Statistics released the urban
residential sales price statistics and new residential housing
price changes for August.
It shows that prices declined in 68 of 70 cities.
Although developers are slashing prices and
local governments are relaxing purchase restriction policy,
the supply of houses and residential real estate
continue to increase, reaching a record high.
Faced with the current weak economy, there have again been
calls for lower interest rates and a benchmark interest rate.
The CCP’s central bank leadership has been saying that
greater efforts to cut interest rates may result in
proliferation of credit, deterioration of China’s debt problem
and greater risks to the economy.
U.S.-based financial services corporation Morgan Stanley
economists say that the central bank’s capital injection stimulus
is a conditional measure controlled by the bank.
It’s done to resist the pressure of cutting interest rates or
overall decreasing bank deposit reserve ratio.
Standard Chartered Bank economist Li Wei says it’s unfair
if policy makers simply blame the issue of
high debt on bank deposit reserve ratios and interest rates.
There are many problems such as monopoly of the banking
sector, lack of market interest rates and many other problems.
The 500 billion yuan from the central bank
is unlikely to boost the market.
Citigroup economists Shen Minggao and Ding Shuang say
a wide range of rate cuts is more transparent and effective
than lowering the deposit reserve ratio
in terms of the lower financing costs.
Gong Shengli, Chinese financial think-tank researcher:
“This is a temporary fix, not a solution to the problem.
To put it simply, the operating costs of China’s economy
is still high.
With the interest of dollar, euro and yen almost at zero,
China’s benchmark interest rate is 6.2%,
possibly the highest in the world,
especially among the 20 big countries."
Gong says that China’s interest rates
are not as stable as other countries.
Based on his calculations, China’s interest rate
has been adjusted over 40 times since the financial crisis.
Gong also says that the high operating costs of China’s
economy are also reflected in the government structure.
The governmental structure of most other countries include
no more than four layers, but China’s has seven layers.
The simultaneous operation of both the political system
and the Party system has brought
huge burdens to China’s economy.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ShuCan