【禁聞】解讀:如何看朝鮮高層閃電訪韓?

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【新唐人2014年10月07日訊】日前,朝鮮「2號人物」黃炳誓,與另外兩名高官崔龍海、金養健突然訪韓,引起外界高度關注。這是自樸槿惠出任韓國總統以來,朝鮮首次派遣如此高級別的官員訪韓。不少西方主流媒體紛紛表示「驚訝」。那麼,應該如何看待這次朝鮮高官訪韓事件呢?一起來看看。

韓聯社報導,朝鮮官方10月3號通知韓國,將派黃炳誓等人,於第二天前往韓國。韓方表示同意。

青瓦臺還發表聲明表示,樸槿惠總統本來有意會面朝方代表團,但因朝方時間因素而無法促成。

4號,包括朝鮮總政治局局長黃炳誓、勞動黨中央委員會書記崔龍海以及勞動黨中央書記金養健在內的朝鮮高層代表團,在韓國仁川會見了朝鮮亞運會代表團,並出席了仁川亞運會閉幕式。

韓國統一部表示,朝韓雙方商定,努力恢復已中斷7個月的高層正式對話。當天,雙方舉行了「午餐會」形式的高層會談。朝鮮高層代表團會見了韓國統一部長官柳吉在和總理鄭烘原。

當晚10點左右,朝鮮高層代表團離開韓國。雙方初步達成共識,將於10月底或11月初舉行二次高層會談。

美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編伍凡:「朝鮮的二、三、四號最高官員,3號通知漢城,4號就過去了。我想漢城和平壤的地下可能已經有溝通了。這個事一發生,人們就在猜測,金正恩恐怕已經被軟禁了,或者被打傷了?他走不動了。完了把他關起來送醫院了,或者把他關起來了,這種可能性都有。」

韓國朝野雙方,均對朝鮮高層代表團訪韓表示歡迎。美國國務院官員表示,美方支持韓朝改善關係。

事實上,自今年8月起,韓方即不斷向平壤喊話,希望儘早接觸與舉行會談,卻一直未得到正面回應﹔如今,朝鮮藉體育賽事期間同韓國接觸,不少政治分析師普遍關注,此次會談,有可能會成為朝韓關係的「破冰之旅」,甚至有更大膽的猜測說,韓朝有可能走向統一。

但也有學者表達了不同看法。

台灣國立政治大學國際關係研究中心主任嚴震生:「這一次的高層見面,我也不認為會有甚麼新的突破。但是至少表示,朝鮮大概覺得說它有被孤立了。甚至想到習近平先赴訪了首爾,而沒有去平壤。這個是打破過去的慣例。所以它也要做出一些不同的動作嘛。」

觀察發現,朝鮮高官近期少有的接二連三積極出訪外交,但與中共當局連個起碼的外長級互訪都沒有。

美國中文雜誌《中國事務》總編伍凡說,朝鮮的突然變化,對北京恐怕是個極大的刺激。

自9月3號以來,金正恩已經有一個月未在公開場合出現。加上朝鮮電視臺先前播出金正恩走路一瘸一拐的畫面,引發外界的種種猜測。

10月3號,英國《電訊報》引述消息說,平壤已經全城戒嚴。這一非比尋常的舉動,讓外界猜測,朝鮮是否發生了政變。

不過,5號,韓國統一部長柳吉在轉述與金養健的談話,表示目前金正恩的身體狀況沒有問題。

中國反政治迫害同盟主持人劉因全 :「朝鮮如果發生軍事政變的話,這是朝鮮人民之福,也是中國人民之福,是世界人民之福。我很希望朝鮮的有識之士,把金家父子建立的專制制度改變,走向民主。然後兩韓統一,朝鮮半島也就和平了。世界的火藥桶也就消滅了。中國的東鄰,不斷向中國索取援助的這條餓狼啊,也就消滅了。」

此外,金養健在此次行程中所扮演的角色,引起了媒體的注意。韓國《朝鮮日報》指出,朝方在白天宴會上的開場,以及對韓方代表的發言,幾乎都由金養健負責。報導引述朝鮮問題專家的話說,金養健不僅是總管朝鮮對韓事業的人物,也曾深受金正日信任。

而曾任國防委員會副委員長的勞動黨書記崔龍海,在黨、政、軍體系中皆任要角,權力序位原本僅次於金正恩,但今年下半年起卻大幅下跌。在金正恩姑丈張承澤遭肅清後,崔的地位被黃炳誓所取代,黃成為目前握有朝鮮實權的第二號人物。

採訪/陳漢 編輯/王子琦 後製/李勇

How to understand North Korean high-level lightning
visit to South Korea?

Recently, North Korea’s “No. 2 figure" Hwang Pyong-So
and two other senior officials Choe Ryong-Hae,
and Kim Yang-Gon,
made a sudden visit to South Korea, drawing worldwide attention.
This is the first time North Korea dispatched
such high-level officials
to visit South Korea since Park Geun-hye took position
of President in South Korea.
Many Western mainstream media expressed their “surprise".

So how should we understand the North Korean officials’ visit
to South Korea? Let’s take a look.

Yonhap News Agency reported that North Korea officially
notified South Korea on Oct. 3,
that they would send Hwang Pyong-So and others to visit
South Korea the next day and South Korea agreed.

Cheong Wa Dae (The Blue House) also issued a statement,
claiming President Park Geun-hye intended to interview
North Korea’s delegation,
but with the tight timeframe, it made it practically impossible.

On Oct. 4th, North Korea’s high-level delegation, including
North Korean Politburo head Hwang Pyong-So,
the Korean Workers’ Party [KWP] Secretary Choe Ryong-Hae
and Secretary of Central Office of KWP Party Kim Yang-Gon,
interviewed the North Korean delegation in the Asian Sports
Games in Incheon, South Korea
and attended the closing ceremony of the Games.

South Korean Unification Ministry said the two Korean sides
agreed to restore high-level official dialogue,
which has been interrupted for seven months.

On the same day, the two sides held high-level talks in the form
of a “luncheon meeting".
North Korea’s high-level delegation met with South Korean Unification
Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae and Prime Minister Jung Hong-won.

On the same morning the Korean high-level delegation
left South Korea.
The two sides reached a preliminary agreement to hold the second
high-level talks by the end of October or early November.

American Chinese magazine “China Affairs" Chief Editor
Mr Wu Fan: “North Korea’s second, third and fourth highest
officials notified Seoul on Oct 3rd, arriving in South Korea next day.

I think Seoul and Pyongyang may have already had secret
communications with this.
Once such a thing occurs, the public would guess, Kim Jong-un
probably has been under house arrest, or wounded?
He was unable to walk. Then he was confined and sent
to the hospital, or locked up.
It is possible, such a case can happen."

Ruling and opposition parties in South Korea both welcomed
the North Korean high-level delegation visit to South Korea.
A U.S. State Department official said the United States supported
improving relations between both Korean sides.

In fact, since August of this year, South Korea has been
continually speaking to Pyongyang,
hoping to hold talks as soon as possible, but without any
positive responses.
Now North Korea has contacted the South Korean officials
during the sporting events and this generally raises
the concerns of many political analysts.

Such talks could become the “ice-breaking journey"
for the inter-Korean relations,
and even more daring speculation is that
North and South Korea may move towards a reunification.

However, some scholars expressed different views.

Yan Zhensheng is Director of the Research Center for Taiwan
International Relations of National Chengchi University.
He says:"During this time’s high-level meeting,
I do not think there will be any new breakthroughs,
but at least this indicates that North Korea probably feels
that it has been isolated.
North Korea even thought of Xi Jinping first visiting
Seoul but not visiting Pyongyang.
This is breaking the past practices,
so it should make for some different form of actions."

Recent news shows that recently North Korean officials
have had a spate of diplomatic visits,
but with no minimal level foreign minister visits
to Chinese authorities.

American Chinese magazine “China Affairs" Chief Editor
Wu Fan, said that a sudden change in North Korea
might be a great stimulus to Beijing.

Since Sept. 3, Kim Jong-un has not appeared
in public for one month.

Given the previous picture’s of Kim Jong-un limping
on a North Korean televised broadcast,
has triggered a variety of speculations.

Oct. 3, British “Telegraph" quoted news that a curfew was
carried out throughout the whole city of Pyongyang.
This unusual move sparked the speculation of
whether North Korea has a coup or not.

However, on Oct. 5th, South Korea’s Unification Minister
Ryoo Kihl-jae, cited Kim Yang-gon’s, saying,
that Kim Jong-un’s current physical condition
has no problems.

Chinese Anti-Political Persecution Alliance Director
Liu Yinquan: “If North Korea has a military coup,
then it is a blessing for the Korean people,
of the Chinese people, and even of the worlds people.
I very much hope that North Korea’s insightful guys
overturn the autocratic regime established
by Kim’s family, moving towards democracy.

Then both sides of the Korean family may reunify.

Peace in the Korean peninsula will also be achieved,
and hence the world’s power keg is also eliminated.
Such is China’s Easterly neighbour, a hungry wolf,
which is continuing to request assistance from China,
may also perish."

In addition, Kim Yang-Gon’s role during the trip
attracted media attention.
South Korean-based “Chosun Online" says, DPRK’s opening
speech during the banquet and talks to South Korea,
are nearly all made by Kim Yang-Gon.

The report quoted experts as saying that Kim Yang-Gon
is not only the head in charge of all affairs of North Korea
with the South Korean’s, but he was also
deeply trusted by Kim Jong-il.

As the former vice chairman of the National Defense
Commission of the DPRK,
and the incumbent KWP Secretary Choe Ryong-Hae,
has taken key position among the party,
government, and military systems with his power-order
second only to Kim Jong-un originally,
but his power has now dropped sharply
since the second half of this year.
After Kim Jong-un’s uncle-in-law Jang Sung-taek
has been eliminated,
Choe Ryong-Hae’s power status has been replaced
by Hwang Pyong-So,
who is now the second most powerful figure
with real influence in North Korea.

Interview/ChenHan Edit/Wang Ziqi Post-Production/LiYong

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