【新唐人2014年10月10日訊】朝鮮領導人金正恩已經一個多月沒在公開場合露面，究竟是病了？還是被廢黜了？目前還不得而知。但有關他的消息已成為了人們的「競猜題」。韓聯社9號消息說，聯合國正考慮以反人類罪將金正恩推上國際法庭。
從9月3號起，朝鮮領導人金正恩已經連續一個多月沒有公開露面，甚至缺席了10月7號朝鮮舉行的金正日紀念大會。之前朝鮮的另一次重要會議，9月25號的第13屆最高人民會議，作為最高領導人的金正恩也沒有公開露面。
有關金正恩的最新消息，是韓國國防部長官韓民求透露的。「韓聯社」7號引用他的話說：金正恩目前在平壤北部的某處。這一情報來自於韓國國防信息本部，是可信的消息。
不過，這仍然無法解釋金正恩反常的不露面。
美國《洛杉磯時報》10月6號的報導說，最近一段時間有關金正恩被推翻下臺的傳言，這些傳言背後一個共同的基本想法是，久未露面的金正恩如果不是病了，那他必定是死了，至少是他的政治生命已經終結。
美國《華盛頓時報》6號的報導也說，有消息說金正恩正在遭受痛風的折磨，還有媒體透露，他因為雙腳的腳踝骨折而接受了手術。報導還援引朝鮮前反間諜官員張進成的話說，他認為「朝鮮勞動黨」的組織指導部，實際上去年已經奪了金正恩的權，在金正恩的姑父張成澤被處決後，金正恩現在不過是組織指導部手中的傀儡。
台灣政治大學中國軍事問題專家丁樹範教授：「朝鮮是個極端不透明化的國家。所以到底金正恩發生了甚麼狀況，然後各種謠言，那是蠻難去猜的一個東西。」
作為中共的「難兄難弟」，朝鮮領導人金正恩的消息也受到中國人的關注。這些天，在中國的社交媒體上，有關朝鮮政變傳聞滿天飛。相反，韓國的輿論則冷靜得多，比較少政變之說。
曾經在中共中央黨校《學習時報社》擔任副編審工作的鄧聿文，8號在《華爾街日報》發表文章指出，這背後蘊含的訴求和願景確實值得去琢磨。
鄧聿文分析，中國的社交媒體總是憑著一廂成願去看待朝鮮局勢，解讀金正恩行蹤。其中的深層根源，當然在於這個極權國家自身發展的不確定性，以及領導人行事風格讓人難以琢磨。一般而言，極權政權命運很大程度上係於獨裁者一人，如果獨裁者身體有恙，或者發生其他意外，極權統治就很難維繫下去。從這個角度看，人們往往通過獨裁者的活動來判斷政權穩定與否。
美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明：「如果發生政變的話呢，它不僅會是意味著金家王朝的滅亡，也應該說是共產黨政權在朝鮮的滅亡。如果南北兩國呢，通過它們的磋商，能夠把門打開來，完成朝鮮逐漸的轉型的話呢，真的可以讓中共減少插手的機會。可以在亞洲的共產主義體系中，又打開一個新的缺口。」
而同樣由金正恩引發的，另一個值得琢磨的話題，9號又再次出現。
韓聯社9號報導，聯合國8號非公開傳閱了歐盟（EU）編製的「人權決議案草案」，內容包括將朝鮮最高領導人金正恩等，觸犯反人類罪的朝鮮相關人員推上「國際刑事法院」（ICC）接受審判。
報導說，一名不願透露姓名的聯合國消息人士表示，朝鮮人權決議案到目前為止，雖然僅為草案，但這是首次將金正恩等朝鮮領導人推上國際法庭的內容包含在內。至於其他內容，他表示目前還不便透露。
聯合國人權理事會朝鮮人權狀況國際調查委員會（COl）在今年2月發表的朝鮮人權報告中指出，朝鮮進行的人權侵害屬於反人類罪，朝鮮有組織地、廣泛地犯下了反人類罪。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/尚燕 剪輯/鍾元
Korean Media Speculate about Kim Jong-un: May Be Sent To International Tribunal
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has not appeared
in public for over a month.
Has he been sick? Or been deposed of?
It remains unknown.
However, the news regarding Kim has become
“a problem for the public to guess the solution."
Yonhap reported on Oct. 9 that the United Nations
is considering charging Kim Jong-un with crimes
against humanity on the international tribunal.
From Sept. 3, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has made
no public appearances for more than one month,
and was even absent from the General Assembly
to commemorate Kim Jong-il held in North Korea on Oct. 7.
As the supreme leader, Kim did not appear during another
previous important meeting– North Korea’s 13th Supreme
People’s Assembly on Sept. 25.
The latest news about Kim Jong-un has been disclosed
from the South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo.
Yonhap quoted him as saying on Oct. 7:
“Kim Jong-un currently stays somewhere
in the north of Pyongyang."
This information comes from the South Korean
Defense Information Division, and is a credible.
However, this still does not explain the unusual faceless
situation regarding Kim Jong-un.
Los Angeles Times reported on Oct. 6 that the most recent
information about Kim Jong-un were rumors
of his being overthrown.
A common basic idea behind these rumors is that
the disappearance of Kim Jong-un is due to either
illness or death, or at least the death of his political life.
United States-based Washington Times reported on Oct. 6
that, according to a news report, Kim Jong-un was suffering
from gout, and other media reported that he underwent
surgery because of feet and ankle fractures.
The report also quoted former North Korea
counterintelligence official Jang Jin-Sung.
He believes that the Organizing & Guiding Department
of the Worker Party of Korea (WPK), in fact, seized
power from Kim Jong-un last year after Kim Jong-un’s
uncle Jang Sung-taek was killed.
Kim Jong-un is now just a puppet in the hands
of the Organizing and Guiding Department.
Professor Ding Shufan is a Chinese military expert
from Taiwan Chengchi University.
He says, “North Korea is an extremely
non-transparent country.
So in the end what happened to Kim Jong-un is unknown,
and then all kinds of rumours spread.
It is very difficult to guess the answer of such a matter."
As one of the fellow sufferers of the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP), the news of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
has also attracted Chinese people’s attention.
Recently on Chinese social media the coup rumor regarding
the North Korean was widely spread.
In contrast, South Korea’s public opinion is much more calm
with less discussion about a coup.
Deng Yuwen once worked as Deputy Editor of Study Times
affiliated to the CCP Central Committee’s Party College.
He published an article on Oct. 8 in the Wall Street Journal
and noted that the aspirations and the vision
behind the incident are certainly worth pondering.
Deng Yuwen analysed that China’s social media always
uses wishful thinking to look at North Korea’s situation
and interpret Kim Jong-un’s whereabouts.
The deep roots, of course, lie in the uncertainties
of the development in such a totalitarian state,
as well as the elusive behavior of the leaders
of the country.
In general, the totalitarian regime is largely tied
to the fate of the dictator.
If the dictator has physical ailments or an accident occurs,
then it is difficult to maintain the totalitarian ruling.
From this perspective, people tend to judge the stability
of the regime by observing the activities of the dictator.
Xia Ming is a Political Science Professor from City University
of New York.
He says, “If there is a coup, then this will not only mean
the demise of the Kim’s dynasty, but also the demise
of the communist regime in North Korea.
If the North and South are able to open the gates to achieve
North Korea’s gradual transformation by their negotiation
and consultation, then this can really reduce the chance
of the CCP to intervene.
This is so that a new gap can be opened
in the Asian communist system."
Meanwhile, another topic which is worth pondering
was triggered by Kim Jong-un on Oct. 9 again.
Yonhap reported on the 9th the United Nations internally
circulated a “draft resolution to North Korean human rights"
prepared by the European Union (EU) on Oct. 8.
This draft charges North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
and other relevant officials who committed crimes
against humanity on the “International Criminal Court “(ICC).
According to the news report, an anonymous UN source said
that although a North Korean human rights resolution is only
a draft so far, this is the first time one covers charges against
Kim Jong-un and other North Korean leaders
on the international tribunal.
As for other included information of the draft,
he said it is still inconvenient to disclose.
The Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights
of North Korea of UN Human Rights Council (COI)
published North Korea human rights report
in February of this year.
This report pointed out that North Korea’s human rights
violations are crimes against humanity
and Korea has systematically and widely
committed crimes against humanity.
Interview/ChenHan Edit/ShangYan Post-Production/ZhongYuan
