【新唐人2015年2月9日訊】近兩年來「老虎」和「蒼蠅」已成為落馬中共官員的特色代名詞。最近中紀委表示，留給「老虎」和「蒼蠅」的時間不多了。自中共十八大以來，「老虎」、「蒼蠅」不斷落網，而中紀委的最新表態，又在釋放什麼樣的信號？請看專家分析。
中紀委監察部網站2月4號刊文，對2015正風反腐前瞻。文章說，中共中央已布好局，各地各部門勢必加緊「落子」。隨著紀檢體制改革推進的「最後一公里」由省壓到市、市壓到縣，對包圍圈逐漸「收口」，留給大大小小「老虎」、「蒼蠅」的時間已經不多了！
這樣的表述，似乎預示著將會有一大批的「老虎」、「蒼蠅」應聲落馬。甚至有評論說，中紀委如此措辭，堪稱「決戰檄文」，也是對「打虎」運動主導者－－中共總書記習近平此前「反腐上不封頂」、「還沒有取得壓倒性勝利」等講話的呼應。
時事評論員邢天行：「它實際上是對各省市以及下邊大大小小的腐敗份子，給出一個非常嚴厲的警告。現在中紀委的權力已經很大了，它連徐才厚、周永康以及大大小小他們身邊身居高位的人，都能拿下去，它還怕省、縣這樣下邊的『小老虎』嗎？它想動還不容易嗎？它為甚麼還要說反腐的問題是嚴峻複雜的呢？」
時事評論員邢天行表示，因為真正的「大老虎」，是江派領頭人物曾慶紅和江澤民之流，而這樣的人中紀委實際上還沒動著。
此外，中紀委監察部網站的文章在開篇提到，中共紀檢體制改革正在推進，1月30號，中共中央深改組審議通過了3個具體舉措。其次，文章聲稱黨內監督專責機構逐漸發揮作用。
邢天行：「它這個從上至下的一個不落的，要垂直建立這樣一個相對獨立的監管體制，就等於是從上至下的，把江澤民時代用人的，包括大大小小的『蒼蠅』、『老虎』全部都監管起來。那在他自己的權力上，他也會達到他希望所要達到的那種絕對的領導。」
今年1月以來，習近平接連召開中共高層會議，釋放繼續反腐、鎖定地方「關鍵少數」，並作出種種強硬表述。
1月中旬，中共《人民日報》稱反腐沒有「鐵帽子王」，2月3號中紀委網站再次刊文，高調宣稱「在貪腐問題上，沒人能當鐵帽子王」，傳遞強硬信號。「鐵帽子王」的說法，被外界解讀為是官方暗示江澤民等可能隨時落馬。
那麼，接下來的「打虎」走向會怎樣呢？
邢天行：「再進一步運行的話，相應的在省、市下邊各種各樣的『老虎』、『蒼蠅』會出現的越來越多，就是被他拿掉的越來越多。這只是說對下。他對上呢，他肯定還是要進一步的藉助前期已經形成的勢態，進一步向縱深去擴展。也就是說他要把最後的、更大的『老虎』給拿下來。」
毫無疑問，這場聲勢浩蕩的「打虎」運動，令一眾「老虎」、「蒼蠅」惶恐不安，也確實取得一些民意的支持。但在打掉一批批的「老虎」、「蒼蠅」後，中共的反腐運動是否會改變路徑，走上輿論普遍期盼的民主道路？
中國問題獨立評論員李善鑒：「它上邊的反腐基本上是權力的鬥爭，特別是新上來的習近平集團和以前江氏集團政治上的角逐。可是反映到下邊呢，那個目的就是挽回民心。但是呢，這種目的根本它是達不到的。造成中共腐敗，問題就出在中共本身這種機制。」
對於中共官場大面積而且根深蒂固的腐敗問題，中國問題獨立評論員李善鑒表示，最捷徑的辦法，就是把中共整個宣傳的那一套暴力、虛偽的反人類價值體系拋棄掉。當然拋棄掉這些的話，中共也就不存在了。
李善鑒：「所以共產黨它想倒腐敗的話，根本不可能有一個好結果的。」
據中共官方通報，2014年中共有68名中管官員被查，其中軍隊有16名高級軍官落馬。
進入2015年南京市委書記楊衛澤、中共國安部副部長馬建、甘肅省人大常委會副主任陸武成陸續落馬。中共《人民日報》3號發文稱，這「開年三虎」拉開了新一年的「打虎序幕」。而《中國紀檢監察報》同一天的報導，則加上了1月中旬落馬的另一隻「老虎」中共國家旅遊局副局長霍克。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/王子琦 後製/舒燦
Communist Central Disciplinary: Time Is Running Out
Tigers and flies have been synonyms
for sacked communist officials.
The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI)
claimed time is running short for tigers and flies.
Numerous tigers and flies have been sacked since the 18th
National Congress and the majority of them
belong to the Jiang faction.
CCDI’s recent release has people question the meaning
of the signal.
Let’s take a look.
The CCDI Website issued prospects of anti-graft in 2015.
It urged local sectors to speed up relevant arrangements
to collaborate with the Central.
Following the reform and development of discipline
and inspection from province to city and county,
the net is tightened.
The time left for the various tigers and flies is running out!
This statement seems to suggest a large number of them
will fall.
The statement was also commented on as “a decisive battle call
to arms" and an echo of what Xi Jinping declared earlier,
“no title cap on anti-corruption"
and “the landslide victory is yet to come."
Commentator Xing Tianxing: “It is actually a very stern
warning to the corrupt elements at all levels.
The immense power of the CCDI is shown in the downfall
of Xu Caihou, and Zhou Yongkang.
Isn’t it easy to handle those junior tigers at the local
level?
So why would it suggest that anti-graft is still grim
and complicated?"
Xing Tianxing explains that the real tigers are the leaders
of the Jiang faction such as Jiang Zemin, Zeng Qinghong and
his ilk.
They are the ones the CCDI has yet to tackle.
In the CCDI statement, it was described that reform
in the discipline and inspection organ is taking place,
such as the central restructuring team has passed
three specific initiatives on Jan. 30.
The internal supervision mechanism is also gradually
put into function.
Xing Tianxing: “This top-down regulatory mechanism is
equivalent to enclosing all flies and tigers from Jiang Zemin’s era.
It’s also a way for the regime leader to reach absolute authority."
Since January, Xi Jinping has released a series of tough talks
targeting corruption against “critical" local elites.
In mid-January, People’s Daily commented that
‘iron-cap princes’ don’t exist in the anti-graft campaign.
On Feb. 3, CCDI also sent a strong signal that no one will be
an “iron-cap prince" in the campaign.
The so-called “no iron-cap princes" was interpreted as
meaning Jiang Zemin and the like will fall at any time.
So, where will the tiger hunt lead to?
Xing Tianxing: “There will be more of the various tigers
and flies in the provinces and cities as it goes down to local.
It will surely expand further up taking the momentum
from previous effort.
The final and the biggest tiger will eventually be hunted down."
There is no doubt that this campaign has frightened many
tigers and flies and earned some support from the public.
But after hunting down the tigers and flies one after another,
will the anti-corruption change its route to what’s been
yearned for by the public: democracy?
China issue independent commentator Li Shanjian:
“The essence of anti-corruption is basically a struggle for power,
or better put, a competition between the new Xi faction
and the old Jiang faction.
It is said to win people’s support to the society.
However, there is no way to reach the purpose (democracy),
because Communism itself is the fundamental mechanism
of the corruption."
Li Shanjian indicates the shortcut to resolve the massive
and deep-rooted corruption in the Communist regime is
to discard the entire violent, hypocritical and anti-humanity
mechanism of the Communist.
However, that of course means
the Chinese Communist Party perishes.
Li Shanjian: “That’s why there won’t be any good result
out of the regime’s anti-graft campaign."
According to China’s official record, a total of 68 officers
were checked in 2014.
Among whom, 16 were senior officers from the army.
Since the beginning of 2015, the regime has sacked three
officials, including Nanjing municipal Party secretary, Yang Weize,
Ministry of State Security vice minister, Ma Jian, and Gansu
Provincial People’s Congress deputy director, Lu Wucheng.
While People’s Daily named them the Three Tigers prelude
in the New Year, CCDI released another sacked tiger,
National Tourism Administration deputy director, Huo Ke.
Interview/ChenHan Edit/Wang Ziqi Post-Production/ShuCan
