【禁闻】专家析薄去向 指胡擒薄 习温助力

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【新唐人2012年3月19日讯】薄熙来在中共两会结束的第二天被宣布免职,江系要员张德江将入主重庆。薄熙来18大想“入常”的野心已经化成泡影。如今,外界紧密关注薄熙来未来的去向和结局。有专家分析,薄熙来下马是由胡锦涛拍板,而这其中温家宝和习近平也起到了推动作用。评论指出,薄熙来的生死并不重要,能否借薄熙来来清除江家帮的势力才是关键。

中共中央15号宣布免去薄熙来的地方职务,但并没有免去他的中央政治委员和中央委员会委员职务。不过,《华盛顿邮报》指出,薄熙来在中央政治局的职务已经拉警报。

由于政治局委员撤职或免职要由中央委员会全会决定,香港《动向》杂志主编张伟国预测,薄熙来可能会在中共十八大前的十七届七中全会露面。

张伟国:“不管他是真身露面还是他的名字露面,那个全会我想会有一个交代。是不是还保留他的政治局委员、中央委员的职务啊,还是像陈良宇、陈希同那样一起解决掉。”

时事评论员文昭指出,对比2006年中共处理陈良宇案件时,是把陈良宇的上海书记和中央政治局委员同时免除,所以和目前的薄熙来案还是有区别。

文昭:“ 从温家宝的讲话,他希望走法律处理的道路,他可能希望把薄熙来送进监狱,从他的讲话中看是有这样的意思。但从现在情况来看,胡温并没有完全控制局面。就是现在还留有一定的余地。”

15号,《重庆卫视》重庆新闻联播报导,会上张德江发言说重庆是个好地方,但薄熙来没有出席。《多维网》报导,两会结束后,薄熙来并没有和重庆代表团一起离京,而是留在北京,接受中央调查。

张伟国分析,薄熙来接受审查是毫无疑问的,而对于外界猜测薄熙来是否会被关进监牢,张伟国认为不能排除这个下场,甚至比这还严重。因为他的政治对手可能会把他彻底从肉体上消灭掉。

张伟国:“在中共目前的政坛上面,几乎无出其右啊,没有人比他更心狠手辣的。所以只要给他留一个活口,他有朝一日反攻倒算,惹出更大的麻烦来。我自己感觉,不管是他自愿了断,还是被自愿了断,这个可能性要比去‘秦城监狱’还要大。因为他的存在,对体制是太可怕了。”

文昭分析指出,薄熙来发配重庆后咄咄逼人,大搞“重庆模式”与胡锦涛的科学发展观分庭抗礼,去年6月搞的“千人红歌团进京”,更是被视为要挟中央,让胡锦涛相当不愉快。

文昭:“薄熙来他本人的政治前途基本完结了,没什么太大的悬念,能不能借薄熙来案把江派势力从中央踢出去,这是下一步的关键。如果通过打薄熙来不能够清除江家帮的势力的话,那么其实打薄熙来本身并没有什么意义。”

近期,外界传出胡锦涛想留任军委主席的消息,文昭认为,这可能与中央决定拿下薄熙来有很大关系。这其中,温家宝和习近平也起了推动作用。

文昭:“因为他在十八大以后要把大部分职务交出去。如果他继续想对中国的未来发挥影响力的话,他就需要在这个时候树立威信,可是薄熙来偏偏在这个时候频繁挑战他的威信。那这就产生了一个尖锐的冲突,逼得胡锦涛不得不对他动手。”

采访/周玉林 编辑/王子琦 后制/周平

Experts On Bo Xilai’t Future

After the Chinese Communist Party’ (CCP) Two Sessions,
Bo Xilai’t removal from his position was announced.
A key member from Jiang Zemin’t faction, Zhang Dejiang,
was placed as the new CCP secretary of Chongqing.
As Bo’t dream to join the Politburo Standing Committee
is gone, his fate has drawn attention home and abroad.
Analyses speculate that Hu Jintao decided about Bo,
with Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping playing an assisting role.
Commentators think Hu’t ultimate goal is to root out Jiang
group’t influence, with Bo’t removal being a key step.

On March 15th, the CCP announced the dismissal of Bo Xilai
as the Chongqing party secretary.
Bo still keeps his positions as a member of CCP’t Politburo
and the Central Committee (CC).
However, a report from the Washington Post believes,
those two memberships are also in danger for Bo.

A dismissal of any Politburo member requires an approval
from the CCP’t Central Committee.
Thus Bo Xilai will probably show up at the 7th Plenary Session
of the 18th CCP National Congress, thinks Zhang Weiguo, chief editor of Hong Kong’t Trend magazine.

Zhang Weiguo: ”Will Bo attend the session in person
or “by name” only?
I believe the decision will be made at that time, including
whether his positions in the Politburo and CC will be kept.
As well as, whether he will be sent to prison,
like Chen Liangyu and Chen Xitong.”

Political commentator Wen Zhao sees Bo’t case
as somewhat different than Chen Liangyu’t .
In 2006, Chen was removed as Shanghai party secretary,
and as a member of Politburo at the same time.

Wen Zhao: ”Based on Wen Jiabao’t words, he prefers to deal
with Bo Xilai by law, possibly expecting to send him to prison.
This can be sensed from his speech.

However, now Hu-Wen still have no complete control over
the situation, so there may be some changes in the future.”

On March 15th, the Chongqing Satellite TV Station reported
on the reaction of the new city CCP secretary Zhang Dejiang.
At his first official meeting in Chongqing, with the absence
of Bo Xilai, he said, “Chongqing is a good place.”
According to dwnews.com, Bo didn’t leave Beijing, and after
the Two Sessions was kept to be investigated by the CCP.

Zhang Weiguo believes that Bo is under investigation
right now.
As to whether Bo will be sent to prison, Zhang thinks it is
possible, since his enemies might attempt to murder him.

Zhang Weiguo: ”Inside the CCP, there’t almost nobody
more cruel and merciless than Bo Xilai.
Therefore as long as you leave him alive, he might come
back some day for revenge and cause worse trouble.
In my opinion, it’t more likely for him to suiside or be killed,
than to be jailed, as his existence is dreadful to the regime.”

Wen Zhao remarked that Bo has taken aggressive moves
after being “banished” to Chongqing.
He developed his “Chongqing model”
to counteract Hu Jintao’t “Scientific Outlook.”
Hu was especially unhappy with Bo’t sending to Beijing
the thousand-people red-song-singing group last June, which was regarded as an intimidation to the CC.

Wen Zhao: ”Now there’t a little doubt that Bo’t political life
has been almost done for.
For Hu Jintao and his group, the key next step is to take
this chance to eliminate Jiang’t faction in the CC.
If this can’t be done, the act of removing Bo Xilai
doesn’t mean much in and of itself.”

Recent rumors state that Hu Jintao likes to stay Chairman
of the Central Military Commission after the 18th Congress.
Wen Zhao thinks Bo’t removal aimed at this goal,
with Wen Jiabao and Xi Jinping also playing assisting roles.

Wen Zhao: ”Hu Jintao will have to quit most of his positions
after the 18th National Congress.
If he attempts to continue his influence in China, he needs
to establish his prestige as much as possible before that.
However, Bo Xilai had frequently challenge him at the time,
which induced intensive conflicts between them, and finally forced Hu to take actions against him.”

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