【新唐人2012年12月31日讯】中共十二届全国人大一次会议，将于2013年3月5号召开。随着胡锦涛的“裸退”，温家宝的“归隐山林”，延续了十年的“胡温体制”就此划上句号。那么，新任中共领导人习近平手里，有多少有效权力呢？接下来，看看本台记者的分析报导。
中共喉舌《新华社》发布，中共十一届全国人大常委会第三十次会议，28号敲定了十二届全国人大一次会议，将于明年3月5号在北京召开，会期将持续两个星期。
这显示，中共“十八大”宣布“裸退”的胡锦涛，将在2013年十二届全国人大一次会议上彻底退位，习近平将接任中共国家主席一职，执政党政军大权。此外，李克强也将接任国务院总理一职，温家宝将 “归隐山林”，中共其余5名政治局常委中的3人，也将分别就任新职。“习李体制”正式启动。
时事评论员林子旭表示，目前习近平的头上，明明白白的摆着两个“太上皇”—-胡锦涛和江泽民。那么，习近平的手里，还能剩下多少有效权力呢？
时事评论员林子旭：“这几天，习近平刚刚颁布了所谓党风建设的八项规定，江泽民马上就是响亮的一个耳光，对于习近平的所谓规定熟视无睹。再加上中共历届元老以及由太子党组成的或明或暗的不同势力，习近平手里还能剩下多少的有效权力，就不得而知了。”
香港《明报》分析，中共“八名元老”的后代疯狂敛财，控制的企业股权都是国有资产。他们在中国政坛呼风唤雨，在经济界神通广大。中共第五代要想掌好舵、站稳脚跟，最大的对手不是所谓的“刁民”，而是这些富可敌国的红色权贵。
台湾《中央社》报导，中共人大、政协“两会”的换届，人气颇高的前中共广东省委书记汪洋，以及国务委员排名第一的刘延东，将有机会接替张德江、王岐山的遗缺，升任副总理。不过，原本在“十八大”晋升政治局常委呼声颇高，却只担任政治局委员的前中共中央组织部部长李源潮，新职务“未卜”。
时事评论员林子旭：“大家看到了像汪洋、李源潮、刘延东这些人，虽然没有成为常委。但是，他们这个人气，依然要远胜过像张高丽、刘云山这些人。也就是说中共政治局常委的绝对权威，很有可能被打破，上一届常委中，周永康敢于无视胡锦涛，那么，今天政治局委员，或许就可以无视像张高丽这样的弱势常委。”
林子旭分析，中共内部现在是一盘散沙，中共体制内的官员各怀鬼胎。
时事评论员林子旭：“有的人拚命的想往国外跑﹔有人想趁乱抓权﹔有人为了家族的利益，依然迷信着中共这条破船﹔还有人对中共已经不报什么希望了，正在伺机等待一些机会而已。”
不过，似乎有一些人，把对胡温的期望，无可奈何的又转向了“习李新政”。
对此，美国“普林斯顿中国学社”执行主席陈奎德分析，最初的“胡温体制”，也曾试图给老百姓带来一丝希望。但是，很快在中共这个强大的体制惯性的支配下，无所作为，陈奎德希望，习近平能够吸取前车之鉴。
“普林斯顿中国学社”执行主席陈奎德：“这个体制，再按照原来的形式维持下去，已经是不可能了，因此他（习近平）不改也得改，必须要往前走，但是，现在的问题是，他有多大的力量和智慧，能够把中国导入和世界主流比较相差不远的这样一个基本的历史轨道和秩序，这是摆在他面前的重大任务，希望，他们能看清这个基本的潮流。”
陈奎德表示，重新改弦更张走出一条新的路来，需要极大的政治勇气和智慧，习近平有没有充分的勇气和能力，人们将拭目以待。
采访编辑/常春 后制/陈建铭
How Much Power Does Xi Jinping Have?
The 12th National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting
will be convened on March, 5th.
After Hu Jintao retires without strings attached and
Wen Jiabao quietly stays in the background,
the Hu-Wen regime has come to an end.
Just how much power has Xi Jinping, the new Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) leader, in his hands then?
Let’s look at the analysis from our station journalists.
The CCP’s state-owned mouthpiece,
Xinhua News Agency, reported that
on Dec. 28, “the thirtieth session of the
Standing Committee of the NPC finalized
the 12th NPC meeting being held in Beijing on March 5, 2013,
with the duration of two weeks.
This shows that Hu Jintao will completely retire in 2013,
during the 12th NPC meeting.
Xi Jinping will take over the post of CCP President,
and will control the party, government, and military.
In addition, Li Keqiang will be the successor to
Premier Wen Jiabao, who will retire at the same time.
Three of the remaining five Politburo Standing Committee
members will take up their new posts.
The “Xi-Li System" will officially begin.
Political commentator Lin Zixu said that obviously, two
“overlords”– Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin” are above Xi Jinping.
Just how much effective power does Xi Jinping have then?
Political commentator Lin Zihu: “In recent days, Xi Jinping
issued the eight provisions for party members.
Jiang Zemin immediately did something to violate
the provisions as if he did not know them.
In addition, the previous patriarch of the CCP and the
princelings from different forces also possess power.
Thus, it is hard to imagine how effective Xi Jinping can be.”
According to a Hong Kong “Ming Pao" analysis, the
offspring of eight veteran officials has control of all state-owned assets.
They are omnipotent in the political arena and
almighty in economic sectors.
The biggest opponents for the fifth generation of
CCP leaders are not the “trouble making citizens” but the rich and powerful royal offspring.
The Taiwan”Central News Agency” reported that
the popular Guangdong Provincial Party Secretary
Wang Yang and the first State Councilor Liu Yandong
will have the opportunity to succeed Zhang Dejiang and
Wang Qishan and become Deputy Prime Ministers.
However, the Political Bureau Standing Committee member
Li Yuanchao, who was popular during the 18th Congress,
only becomes a member of the Politburo Committee.
His new duties are not yet certain.
Lin Zixu: “We can see that people like Wang Yang,
Li Yuanchao, and Liu Yandong,
fail to become members of the Standing Committee.
However, their popularity is still far better than that of
Zhang Gaoli and Liu Yunshan.
This means that the absolute authority of the Central
Politburo Standing Committee is likely to be broken.
In the last session of the Standing Committee,
Zhou Yongkang dared to disrespect Hu Jintao.
Thus, today, the Politburo Committee members
perhaps can ignore the weak Standing Committee members, such as Zhang Gaoli.”
Lin Zixu analyzed that within the CCP, the officials
are like loose sand in a bucket. Everyone has his own plan.
Lin Zixu: “Some people desperately want to run
to a foreign country; some try to seize power;
some want to acquire more wealth for the family
and still believe in the CCP;
some have given up hope towards the CCP and
are waiting for the right opportunities.”
However, it seems that some people had given up the
expectation of the Hu-Wen regime and now have no choice but to turn to the Xi-Li regime.
Chen Kuide, Executive Chairman of Princeton
Chinese Society, believes that
at the beginning of the “Hu -Wen system,”
they tried to bring a glimmer of hope to the people.
But, under the CCP’s powerful system,
they could not accomplish anything.
Chen Kuide hopes that Xi Jinping can
learn something from the past.
Chen Kuide: “It is impossible for this system to continue
to exist according to its original form.
Therefore, Xi Jinping has no choice but to make changes.
He must go forward, but the question now is
how much strength and wisdom he has.
Leading China into the mainstream of the world
which equips with a basic history of the track and order is a huge mission for him.
I hope that our leaders can recognize the trend.”
Chen Kuide thinks that making a fresh start to re-embark on
a new road requires a great deal of political courage and wisdom.
We’ll wait and see whether Xi Jinping has
the courage and ability required for the task.
