【禁闻】分析:新出炉的中共人大代表名单

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【新唐人2013年03月01日讯】中共全国人大常委会27号公布了十二届全国人大代表名单,确认2,987名代表资格有效。中共喉舌《新华社》报导,代表中党政官员比例明显降低、基层人员明显增加。分析认为,这一次人代会的看点,应该是高层人士的分布,而不在于谁当代表。因为符合共产党的意志,按著共产党的方式去进行表决,谁当代表都一样。

十二届全国人代名单,被认为是中共官场人事布局的重要指标。

《中央社》引述消息人士的话说,除非最后一刻出现变化,否则现年59岁的前驻日大使王毅,可能获派出任外长。王毅曾在2004至2007年被派驻日本。

而按照惯例,国务院内阁部长正职不会当选全国人大代表。不过,在现任的内阁成员中,外交部长 杨洁篪、监察部长马笩、财政部长谢旭人、铁道部长盛光祖、卫生部长陈竺都被选为十二届全国人大代表。分析指出,这预示着他们的职务可能会出现变化。

至于7名政治局常委中,习近平在上海团、李克强在山东团、张德江在家乡吉林团、俞正声在湖北团、刘云山在内蒙团、王岐山在北京团、张高丽在天津团。这些地方,有些是他们的故乡,或者是他们工作过的地方。不过,李克强与山东似乎没有什么关联,而未能进入政治局常委的政治局委员汪洋则转到故乡安徽团。

香港《大公网》分析,从以往的做法来看,如果一省代表团之中,没有任何一位现任的党和国家领导人,则在两会的选举中,代表团里将有人当选新一届的国家领导人。

据报导,在2,987名代表名单中,党政官员的比例名义上降至约35%。报导分析,有不少官员是改戴知识份子的帽子,所谓基层代表更是指定的工人、农民。中共禁止独立人士参选代表,民主大门依旧是关闭的。

美国“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士王军涛认为,中共这次的人代会看点,还是在高层的人事分布上,至于什么阶层的人占多少比例,王军涛觉得没有什么意义。

美国“哥伦比亚大学”政治学博士王军涛:“因为共产党它不管在哪个阶层选代表,他都是披着这个阶层的外衣,但是心是共产党的心,它选代表选忠于它的,听它话的。按共产党意志投票的话,没有什么用。”

不过,王军涛表示,中共高层人事的分布,可能会有些变化。

王军涛:“在去年发生了王立军出走美国领馆,那么,导致了整个的十八大的人事上,江泽民又借着令计划的儿子这个事情大作文章,和薄熙来的倒台,十八大人事大翻盘,推翻了原来十七大的人事安排。”

自1998年起,国务院领导班子固定为“一正四副五委员”的十人组合。十二届全国人大代表名单的出炉,也牵动国务院十人组合。据了解,排名第一的常务副总理由政治局常委担任,副总理都是政治局委员。国务委员的党内职务则并不固定,有的是政治局委员、书记处书记,有的则仅是中央委员,但是,都是中共国家领导人。

王军涛指出,过去共产党有个特点,总理和常务副总理基本上分属两个派系。

王军涛:“这一次如果李克强做总理,假如汪洋做常务副总理,当然他们就算一派的,如果不是,那就分属两派。也很可能是张高丽, 因为张高丽是常委,一般说,总理和常务副总理都是常委,如果按照七个人来说,只有李克强一个人是团派,当然,其他几个人,不管谁来做副常务总理都是江的人。”

值得一提的是,这次代表名单还有另外一个看点,那就是,解放军代表大幅超编。

采访编辑/常春 后制/薛莉

Analysis: A New CCP Representatives List

On February 27, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Standing
Committee of the National People’s Congress announced
the list of the representatives of the 12 session of the NPC,
confirming 2,987 people’s qualifications to be valid.
CCP mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency reported that, officials
in the party and government became significantly lower.
Grassroots officials significantly increased. The analysts
believe that the focus on NPC should be the distribution of
top echelon places, rather than who is representative.

If the vote is in line with the will of the CCP according to
the way of the CCP, it does not matter who is the representative.

The list of representatives of the 12th session of the NPC is
considered an important indicator of the official personnel layout.

Central News Agency quoted sources as saying that unless
there are last-minute changes, Wang Yi, 59-year-old
former ambassador to Japan may be assigned as
foreign minister.
Wang Yi had been stationed in Japan in 2004-2007.

By convention, the Cabinet of Ministers and chiefs of the
state council will not be elected representatives of the NPC
However, current members, Foreign minister Yang Jiechi,
Supervision Minister Ma Bo, Minister of Finance Xie Xuren,
Minister of Railways Sheng Guangzu, Health Minister
Chen Zhu were selected as the representatives of the 12th session of the NPC.
The analysis pointed out it indicates that
their duties may change.

As for the seven Politburo Standing Committee members,

Xi Jinping is in the Shanghai group,
Li Keqiang in the Shandong group,
Zhang Dejiang in the Jilin group,
Yu Zhengsheng in the Hubei group,
Liu Yunshan in the Inner Mongolia group,
Wang Qishan in the Beijing group,
Zhang Gaoli in Tianjin group. Some of
these places are their hometown, or where they had worked.
However, Li Keqiang seems not to be related to
Shandong.
Wang Yang failed to become a member, membership
of the Political Bureau Standing Committee went to his hometown Anhui group.

Takungpao analysis from past practice,
if in a provincial delegation,
there is no current leader of the CCP or the nation,
during the two sessions elections,
someone will be elected as the new national leader.

It is reported that, in the list of 2,987 delegates, the proportion
of party and government officials dropped to 35% nominally.
It was analyzed, many officials changed to intellectuals,
the so-called grassroots representatives are specified workers and peasants.
The CCP prohibits independent candidates to run in an
election, therefore there is no democratic process.

For Dr. Wang Juntao of Columbia University
political science, the focus of this session is the distribution of high-level personnel,as to what class of people are what percentage,
there is no connection.

Dr. Wang Juntao: “No matter in which class the CCP elected
the representatives, they just dressed in the cloak of that class,
but the heart is that of the CCP.

The CCP choses loyal representatives who will listen to it.
If they vote according to the will of the CCP, the vote is meaningless."

However, Wang Juntao said, some changes may happen in
the distribution of high-level personnel of the CCP.

Wang Juntao: “Last year Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. consulate,
which led to the personnel change of the entire 18th NPC,
focusing on the issue of Jiang Zemin, Ling Jihua’s son,
Bo Xilai’s downfall etc.,
the personnel of the 18th NPC completely changed, overturned
the original personnel arrangements during the 17th NPC.”

Since 1998, the leading group of the State Council had been
fixed at ten people, including one chief, four deputy chiefs and five committee members.
The new list of the 12th session of the NPC also affects the
State Council’s ten person group.
It is learned that the Deputy Prime Minister is served by
the Standing Committee member of the Political Bureau,
the Deputy Prime Minister is a Politburo member.

State Councilor’s party duties are not fixed,
some are Politburo members, secretaries of the Secretariat,
some are just members of the Central Committee.
But all are the leaders of the CCP.

Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,

Wang Juntao pointed out that in the past, the CCP had
the characteristics of the Prime Minister and the
Deputy Prime Minister basically belonging to two factions.

Wang Juntao: “If Li Keqiang becomes Prime Minister,
Wang Yang as the Deputy Prime Minister, they are in the same group.
If not, the two positions will belong to two groups.

It is highly possible it will be Zhang Gaoli,
because he is a member of the Standing Committee.
In general, the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister
are members of the Standing Committee.
If counted as seven people, only Li Keqiang
is in the Youth Communist group.
Others, no matter who will become Deputy Prime
Minister, they are all in Jiang’s group.”

It is worth mentioning that in this list of representatives,
the People’s Liberation Army representatives are significantly overstaffed.

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