【禁闻】陆资金面紧缩 “钱荒”再现?

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【新唐人2013年10月28日讯】目前,中国大陆银行间资金面突然转紧,反映市场利率行情的重要指标——上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)全线上扬,分析指称,资金利率飙升引发市场对于“钱荒”再袭的忧虑。

10月24号,上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)全线上升。其中,隔夜利率上涨30.80个基点至4.088%,7天利率上涨68.80个基点至4.68%,14天利率更是上涨101.1个基点至4.882%,1个月利率上涨58.6个基点至5.4%。

25号,继续延续前一天涨势,其中1月期同业拆放利率(Shibor)跳涨102.20个基点,14天Shibor利率大涨98个基点。

在银行间债券市场,当日回购利率涨幅更加惊人。其中,7天回购利率大涨96个基点至5%,14天回购利率则飙涨253.5个基点至6.6%,无论涨幅还是价格,都创下了6月末流动性紧张以来的新高水平。

不仅如此,据中央国债登记结算公司统计,10月24号,国债收益率曲线5年、7年、10年期继续上行,至3.99%、4.15%、4.19%,再创新记录﹔受农发行金融债券招标影响,政策性金融债收益率曲线整体上行约10个基点,3年期及以上期限收益率全线进入“5”时代。

另外,从24号开始,央行连续第三次暂停了7月底开始一直使用的逆回购操作。近两周央行净回笼资金超过千亿元。

中国《证券时报》引述业内人士的话表示,央行公开市场逆回购操作继续暂停,再遇资金利率飙升,引发市场对于“钱荒”再袭的忧虑,债市一片惨淡,收益率全面上行。

大陆金融分析师任中道:“其实钱荒始终是存在,只不过中共想掩盖这个问题,一旦央行没有采取公开市场的操作,也就是向市场放水,那个银行就觉得钱不够用了,于是隔夜拆借的利率就往上飙升。”

中国社科院金融市场研究室副主任尹中立认为,6月份的钱荒,是因为各银行为了月末考核的需要到处找钱,另外加上资金大规模的从中国撤出,以及人民银行想测试各银行的承受力,尹中立认为这次央行会吸取上次教训。

社科院金融市场研究室副主任尹中立:“这个是短期的,可能是月末考核导致的一个短期的波动。”

不过,大陆金融分析师任中道不以为然。

任中道:“银行之间是非常复杂的一个关系,其实中国就一家银行,就中共的央行,所谓钱荒就是中共央行钱荒,也就是中共政府在闹钱荒,因为大量的资金都弄到海外去了,因为中共也知道崩溃在所难免,他们就把钱弄走。”

另外,在美股持续上涨创新高的同时,A股却连续大跌。在三连阴之后,周五再度单边大跌1.45%,不仅将2150点重要技术关口洞穿,盘中还将2130点强支撑砸穿,上证指数收盘2132.96点,大跌21.36点,跌幅1.45% ,日线拉出四连阴。

深成指报收8379点,下跌106点,跌幅1.26%。中小板指大跌2.79%,跌幅超过主板一倍以上﹔创业板指数大跌2.06%,四天累积暴跌8.37%。

在政策面平稳,经济数据超出预期的背景下,是什么导致A股如此暴跌呢?

任中道:“从表面来看各方面资金链都比较紧,另一种从最近股市的表现来看,有这样的迹象,可能资金从股市抽出来到银行去补血,不到那边去。”

美国《华尔街日报》撰文指称,中共当局计划,企图让经济增长,由投资拉动型向消费拉动型转型,限制放贷符合这一目标。但是中国央行肯定会如履薄冰:如果动作太大,可能令遭遇过钱荒冲击的金融业承受更大压力。

采访编辑/刘惠 后制/孙宁

Money Shortages Appears in China Again

There are currently more concerns over
inter-bank funds in Mainland China.
An important indicator of this is Shibor
( Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate).
Analysts said that the funds rate soared, causing
the market’s concern over money shortages again.

On October 24, Shibor rose across the board.

Among them, the overnight rate rose
30.80 basis points to 4.088 percent.
Seven day interest rates rose
68.80 basis points to 4.68 percent.
14 day interest rates was up 101.1 to 4.882 percent.

30 day interest rates was up
58.6 basis points to 5.4 percent.

On October 25, the rally continued, including 30 day Shibor
rose 102.20 basis points, and 14 day 98 basis points.

On the same day, the re-purchase rate in the
inter-bank bond market was even more alarming.
Seven- day repurchase rates
rose 96 basis points to 5 percent.
14-day repurchase rates rose
253.5 basis points to 6.6 percent.
Both increases and prices in the bond market
have hit a new level since the month of June.

Statistics from the Central Securities Depository
Clearing Company further indicate this trend.
On October 24, the treasury yield curves of
5, 7 and 10 year continued to climb to 3.99%,
4.15% and 4.19%, which is a record breaking high.

Policy financial bond yield curves, affected by agricultural
development bonds, moved upward about 10 basis points.
Yields over a 3-year period and more all entered the “5” era.

In addition, since October 24, the Central Bank
suspended reverse repurchase operations, implemented
from the end of July, for the third consecutive time.

The net capital returned for about two weeks
for the Central Bank was over 100 billion yuan.

The Chinese Security Times quoted inside sources.

It said that the Central Bank’s discontinuing of
reverse repurchase operations and soaring inter
bank rates triggered concerns over money
shortages, a dismal bond yield and upward return.

Ren Zhongdao, financial analyst: “Actually, money
shortages have always been there, but the Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) just wants to cover it up.

Once the Central Bank stops open market operations-
supplying the market with money- banks feel the presence
of money shortages, so the lending rates soar overnight.”

Yin Zhongli, deputy director of Chinese Academy
of Social Science Research Center, believes that
money shortages in June stemmed from banks
needing money to meet the month-end assessment.
There were also massive capital withdrawal from China,
and Chinese people wanted to test the bank’s tolerance.
Yi thinks that the Central Bank
will learn its lesson from last time.

Yin Zhongli: “This is a short-term volatility, and
it may be caused by the monthly assessment.”
However, Ren Zhongdao thinks differently.

Ren Zhongdao: “Relationships between banks is complex.

In fact, China has only one Central
Bank, which belongs to the CCP.
Money shortages mean the Central Bank is short of money.

This is because a lot of money was transferred overseas.

The CCP also knows their collapse is
inevitable, so they sent money elsewhere.”

Meanwhile, the US stock market continued to rise to
new highs, as A shares in Mainland fell continuously.
On Friday, A shares fell unilaterally
1.45 percent, after three down days.
It not only ripped through 2150,
an important technical barrier.
It also smashed through the strong support point 2130.

By the end of Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index
closed 2132.96 points, falling 21.36 points, or 1.45 percent.
It ended with four losing days in a row.

The Shenzhen component Index closed at
8379 points, down 106 points, or 1.26 percent.
Small and medium board index fell 2.06 percent,
cumulative plunging 8.37 percent in four days.
Under stable policies and better than expected economic
data, what really causes A shares to crash as they have?

Ren Zhongdao: “On the surface, all aspects
are in a relative tight financial chain.
From other stock market scenarios, however, it may be
caused by funds shifting from the stock market to banks.

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the CCP
attempts to make its economic growth from an
investment-driven to consumer-driven transformation.

It seeks to limit lending falls in line with this goal.

However, the Central Bank is walking on thin ice now.

If it moves too much, it may add more pressure to the
financial sector, which now suffers from money shortages.

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