【世事关心】川习会是美国大获全胜 还是中共故伎重施?

【新唐人2018年12月11日讯】【世事关心】(第二季 )川习会是美国大获全胜 还是中共故伎重施?

G20峰会期间,川普总统和习近平进行了会晤,让美方感到意外的是什么?习近平从原来强硬针锋相对的立场有所转变,原因是什么?因为中美双方对川习会的成果说法不一,道琼斯指数一度下滑了800点,美国公众真的受了中共官媒的影响吗?川普在美中贸易战中将要取得突破了吗?

G20峰会期间,川普总统和习近平进行了会晤。让美方感到意外的是什么?
President Trump and Xi Jinping met during the G20 summit. What surprised the American team the most?

拉里 ·库德洛(美国国家经济委员会主任):“习主席探讨了具体细节,甚至可以说他想强调自己对细节的掌握程度。”
Larry Kudlow:“ President Xi engaged in a level of detail — you could even say he was selling this.”

习近平从原来强硬针锋相对的立场有所转变。原因是什么?
Xi backed down from a tough tit-for-tat stance, what is the real reason?

陈破空(资深时政评论家):“中国经济走下坡路,而美国经济走上坡路,中国经济扛不住了。”
“China feels like it’s economically breaking down since its economy has been going downward while the American economy is improving. ”

因为中(共)美双方对川-习会的成果说法不一,道琼斯指数一度下滑了800点。美国公众真的受了中共官媒的影响吗?
The Dow fell 800 points after the summit due to competing accounts from the White House and Beijing. Does the American public really believe Chinese media?

安一鸣(南加州大学马歇尔商学院教授/《致命中国》作者之一):“市场的波动是那些投资银行家和金融界人士造成的。他们在中国大陆有着巨大的经济利益,这些人不愿与中共打贸易战。”
Greg Autry(Assistant Professor of Clinical Entrepreneurship in USC Marshall School of Business / The Co-author of The Book 《Death by China》): “When the market moves, it’s because investment bankers and financial professionals who are aligned with the Chinese side of things are unhappy. ”

川普在美-中(共)贸易战中将要取得突破了吗?
Is Trump close to hitting a homerun in the trade war with China?

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):欢迎收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗。在上周G-20峰会期间进行的川-习会,让许多人感到意外。在峰会召开之前,大多数专家预言这个会晤不会取得什么成果。川普会坚持要求中共进行经济结构改革,而习近平不会答应。最终是北京一如既往的只说不做,中共会采取拖延战术来设法维持现状。但这次不一样了,习近平在会晤一开始就做了30-45分钟长篇讲话,他详细介绍了中共的实质性让步。看起来习近平确实想取信于美方,他真的要放弃那些他以前一贯坚持的东西吗?如果是这样,那么是什么原因促成了这一转变?在这期《世事关心》里,让我们一起来探讨。
Welcome to 《Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. The Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit last weekend took many people by surprise. Before the summit, most pundits predicted there would be very little outcome. Trump would persist on structural changes and Xi would refuse. Most likely Beijing will revert to its old tactics of agreeing to something but never really doing it. They would intend to buy their time in order to come up with new ways to maintain the status quo. But this time it felt different. Xi Jinping kicked off the conversation with a 30-45 minute monologue. He detailed a substantial concession list from the Chinese side. It seemed he did everything to prove his commitment before the American hawks. Does he really want to give up what he absolutely wouldn’t before? If so, why the change of heart? Let’s explore the causes in this episode of《 Zooming In》.

第一部 :一个峰会,两种报导
G20峰会期间,川习会究竟讨论了哪些话题,达成了哪些共识,会后北京和白宫公布的新闻稿内容并不一致。
After the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit, accounts from Beijing and the White House about what the two leaders discussed and agreed on didn’t match up.

根据白宫发布的新闻稿,川普总统同意:2019年1月1日起,对价值2000亿美元的中国商品征收的关税将保持在10%。届时将不会提高到25%。中国同意从美国大量购买能源、工业及其它产品,减少两国之间的贸易不平衡。中国同意立即开始采购美国的农产品。
According to a White House press release, President Trump agreed to leave tariffs at 10 percent on $200 billion dollars’ worth of product starting January 1st, 2019. He will not raise it to 25 percent at this time. China agreed to purchase a substantial amount of energy, industrial, and other products from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. China agreed to start purchasing agricultural products from American farmers immediately.

白宫还说,川普和习近平同意,针对强迫技术转让、知识产权保护、非关税壁垒、网络入侵和网络盗窃、服务和农业问题立即展开结构性改革相关的谈判。双方议定将努力于90天内结束这一谈判。如果90天内未能达成协议,10%的关税将会增加到25%。
The White House also said Trump and Xi agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both parties agree that they will try to complete the transfer in the next 90 days. If they can’t reach an agreement within 90 days, 10% tariff will increase to 25%.
美国国家经济委员会主任拉里·库德洛参加了川-习会。他在媒体远程会议上描述了他所看到的当时的情景。
Larry Kudlow, the director of the national economic council, attended the Trump-Xi meeting. He described what he observed in a teleconference with the media.

Larry Kudlow(美国国家经济委员会主任):“我认为这是一个非常、非常、非常重大的事件。这次会晤涉及的话题很广,也很具体。这种情形我们以前从来没遇到过。另外,我们也从来没有见过习近平这样亲历亲为。事实上,晚宴非常棒。首先,这是我第一次近距离地接触习主席,我对他一点都不了解。所以,我看到了川普总统与习主席之间的交情。你知道,我们一直听说他们是好朋友等等,我真的看到了。第二,我想说的是,习主席探讨了具体细节,甚至可以说他想强调自己对细节的掌握程度。因为在我看来,作为国家元首,这么做是非同寻常的,按理像我这样的人才应该知道细节,但是他知道,他自己直接上场。事实上,副总理、高级经济专家刘鹤告诉了我们,在晚宴前我们和刘举行了两次单独会谈。周六,第二次会谈时,刘特意说明了此事。他说:‘我什么也不说,由习主席来说。’这很不寻常,于是我们报告给了川普总统。他没有一带而过,他准备得很充分。因此给我留下了深刻的印象。我觉得这一点证明了中国的承诺。也可能我错了,但我相信是这样。 ”
“I think this is just an enormous, enormous event. Enormous event. This one covers so much ground and so much detail. We’ve never seen this before. And furthermore, we’ve never seen the hands-on participation by President Xi before. In fact, that dinner was quite remarkable. First of all, I — it’s the first time I’ve seen President Xi up close and personal. I don’t know him at all. So I saw the chemistry between President Trump and President Xi. You know, we’ve been hearing that they’re friends and so forth. I actually saw it. And I secondly want to note that President Xi engaged in a level of detail — you could even say he was selling this, which was, in my opinion, quite unusual for the head of state. Guys like me are supposed to know the details. He did. He made the pitch himself. Vice Premier Liu He, the top economic economics guru, as you know, actually told us — we had two private meetings with Liu before the dinner. Steve Mnuchin and Bob Lighthizer and I met privately with Liu — we all know him pretty well at this point — and some of his deputies. And then of course, reported back to the President and we — and our group convened on the meetings. But what I want to say is, Liu kind of flagged it in the second meeting Saturday. He said, ‘I’m not going to say anything. It’s going to be President Xi.’ And we reported that to President Trump because that’s quite unusual. And he wasn’t winging it, he was well prepared. And so I was impressed with that and I felt that bolstered the Chinese commitment. I may be wrong, but I believe it did.”

据库德洛讲,这次确实是习近平亲自直接开价。白宫国家贸易委员会主任彼得·纳瓦罗当时也在现场,对此说法表示了赞同。
According to Kudlow, Xi Jinping actually did the bidding directly. White House National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro was also present and echoed this account.

彼得·纳瓦罗(白宫国家贸易委员会主任): “晚宴时中国国家主席自己一直讲了有30到45分钟,给出了要达成协议的多项数据。这是非常不一样的,在美中关系史上是破天荒的首次,这些内容通常都是下面的人见面商讨,而这次是总统对总统啊,所以大不相同。”
Peter Navarro(White House National Trade Council Director): “It was extraordinary to have the president of China himself at that dinner spend the first 30 to 45 minutes laying out the parameters in detail of a deal — that’s never really happened in the history of the U.S.-China relationship. The way this generally works is that the minions meet and talk about these things. This was president-to-president, so that’s very much different as well.”

据参加川习会的美国代表团讲,会谈不仅涉及了广泛的话题,而且中国代表团还用了一个很重要的词:“立即”。
According to the American team, not only was substantial ground covered in the meeting, but the Chinese team used an important word: “immediately.”

Larry Kudlow(美国国家经济委员会主任):“还有一点我想说的是,当我们见到副总理刘鹤的时候,他说了几次(这一点我也督促过他),在关税和非关税壁垒方面,以及过后将要谈到的其它结构性问题,中国都在发生著变化,这一点在新闻报导中没有提到过。今天上午我在接受采访中确实提到了‘立即’。然后我就问:‘你说的“立即”,是什么意思呢?’刘鹤说:‘立即’。我说:‘比如周一?周一就开始?那就很令人信服了。’我这话也告诉了他的高级助理。所以我们会看。但是,可以告诉你的是,以前我从来没有听到过‘立即’这种承诺。”
Larry Kudlow: “The other point I want to make is, when we met with Vice Premier Liu He, he said several times — and I pushed him on this — that the China changes, with respect to tariffs and non-tariff barriers and other structural issues that we’ll get into in a few moments, would begin immediately. I don’t think that’s come out yet in the press reports. I did mention that in some of the interviews that I did this morning, ‘immediately’. And I said, ‘What do you mean, “immediately”?’ And he said, ‘Immediately’. I said, ‘Like Monday? Get going, Monday? That would be very persuasive.’ And, I said that to his top deputies. So we’ll see. But, I think, I can tell you I’ve never heard that ‘immediately’ commitment before.”

中国的官方媒体新华社同意中国代表团所说的会谈过程中友好、建设性的气氛。但是,当谈到究竟谈论了哪些话题,达成了哪些协议时,却是另一番说辞。
China’s official Xinhua News agency agreed with its counterpart in describing a friendly and constructive atmosphere. But in terms of what was actually talked about and agreed upon, it depicts a different picture.

根据北京方面的报导, 习近平和特朗普会晤达成共识停止加征新的关税。但没有提到它只是暂时的停火,该报告称,下一步是努力消除所有关税,没提到90天谈判期,以及如果双方3个月内未达成协议又将发生什么后果。新华社还说,中国将进一步开放市场,根据中国改革开放和国内市场的需要增加进口。新华社报导未提及将立即大量采购美国的农产品。中国外交部长王毅在新闻发布会上的发言与新华社的报导严格保持了一致。
由于中国媒体掩盖了川-习会的重要细节,遭到国内民众越来越强烈的批评。对此,中国《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进为中国政府进行了辩护。他说外交官强调对本国有利的资讯很正常,然后又说他工作的媒体不隐瞒这类资讯。中国《环球时报》还批评川普政府突出北京同意购买1.2万亿美元的美国商品,却不提美国作出的让步。《环球时报》举了一些例子,比如美国有一阵子没有提“中国制造2025”计划。美国似乎也停止了抨击中国的国有企业和相关工业政策。
According to Beijing, the U.S. and China agreed to stop adding new tariffs, without mentioning it’s only a temporary cease fire. The report said the next step is to work to eliminate all tariffs. There is no mention of the 90 day negotiation period and what happens if the two parties don’t reach an agreement within three months. Xinhua also said China will further open its market and increase imports based on the needs of China’s reforms and the Chinese market. The report didn’t mention the immediate purchase of large amounts of U.S. agricultural goods. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s press briefing was strictly in line with the Xinhua News agency’s report. In a response to mounting criticism from Chinese citizens that the media concealed important details of the Trump-Xi meeting, chief editor Hu Xijin of China’s Global Times defended the Chinese government. He said it is normal for diplomats to highlight information that is beneficial to their country. He went on to say his media did not hide such information.The Global Times also criticized the Trump administration for highlighting Beijing’s agreement to purchase $1.2 trillion dollars of American goods while failing to mention where the U.S. made concessions. It listed examples, like the U.S. hasn’t mentioned Made in China 2025 for a while. It also seemed to stop attacks on China’s state-owned enterprises and related industrial policies.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):《环球时报》现在处于一个很尴尬的境地。即使它想做一些与新华社不一样的事情,不得已还得攻击美国,可能这种细微的差别也是中共上层的授意。真正的问题是:究竟为什么中共认为有必要隐瞒川-习会的细节呢?以下是我和政治评论家陈破空先生的探讨。
The Global Times is in an awkward position. It still has to attack America even if it wants to somewhat differ from Xinhua. It is likely this slight difference was also ordered by the regime. The real question is why did the Chinese Communist Party feel the need to hide the details of this meeting at all? Here is my discussion with Chinese political strategist Pokong Chen.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“您觉得为什么中共要对国内隐瞒川-习会的谈判内容呢?”
“In your opinion, why did the Chinese communist regime hide part of the Trump-Xi meeting from its people?”

陈破空(资深时政评论家):“中共方面对中国人民隐瞒川-习会的内容,在我的预料之中。因为这个谈判几乎是中共的最后一个机会,改善中美关系、结束中美对抗的最后一个机会。也是在中方的一再要求之下,川普和美方给予他的最后一个宽限。那么这个谈判显然是中方对美方大幅度的让步,是妥协,或者叫做认输,或者叫做输诚。按照俄罗斯媒体或者印度媒体的描述,叫做‘投降’。所以由于这样一个过程,中共不让中国人民知情,原因在于他前段时间的调子太高,前段时间说的是‘奉陪到底’、‘以牙还牙’、‘决不后退一步’,又说是要决不让特朗普在中国的肥羊上割肉,话说得很绝。在这样的情况下,突然做出这么大幅度的让步,所以他觉得在中国人民那里交代不过去,可能轻则引起民间反弹,重则引起政局动荡、甚至权力不稳。所以出于这样一种考虑,习近平和中共当局向中国人民隐瞒了这个情况。”
“ The regime orchestrated this, as I had anticipated. Simply because this is almost the last chance for it to warm up China-U.S. relations and end confrontation between them. This is also the last reprieve President Trump and the U.S. have granted him after Xi’s repeated requests. So, evidently, it was China that made substantial concessions to the U.S. You may call it caving in, admitting defeat, or a signal of sincerity. It was flagged as‘surrender’, in accounts of Russian and Indian media. That’s why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), who had been so assertive and high-profile, was reluctant to publicize the truth. We remember Xi’s previous public remarks, claiming to ‘fight to the end’, ‘teeth for teeth’, and‘never back down a single step’. He even swore to prevent Trump from taking advantage of China like cutting off mutton from a grown sheep. So defiantly, so absolutely. Despite such statements Xi’s huge concessions made him unable to face the Chinese people, which may provoke civilian criticism, political unrest or a power crisis. As a result Xi Jinping and the Chinese communist regime concealed details of the talk. ”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“根据Navarro的描述,在川-习会上,习近平一上来就做了大段讲话,作出了重大让步。 您觉得他为什么要这样做?中共政权在和美国的贸易战中,现在到底处于什么状态?”
“Xi started the talk with a lengthy speech, offering great concessions, according to Navarro. Why did he do so? How is the Chinese communist regime doing amid the ongoing trade war? ”

陈破空(资深时政评论家):“由于中共在多次谈判中搞拖延战术,在川普上台不久搞了个‘百日谈判’,以中共的拖延而告终,最后由副总理刘鹤到美国来了几轮谈判,最后都发现中共没有诚意。在这样的情况下,美方搁置了这个谈判。后来中共在贸易战升级,和经济下滑的情况下,觉得事情到了危急的地步,要祈求美方恢复这个谈判。但是川普一再表态,他不想谈的太早,说中方还没有准备好,不想达成协议。但是中方做出了大量的承诺,大量的表态之后,甚至习近平本人做了表态之后,美方才同意举行这么一次会谈。所以这一次非常值得看点的是,会谈一开始,习近平本人就用了三十分钟的时间来向美方表达他让步的立场。出于两个原因,一个原因是,习近平在美方几乎丢失了信誉。因为2015年,习近平跟当时的美国总统奥巴马做了两个表态,最后都失言,所以在美国人面前已经失去了信誉。他一个表态是说,南海绝不会军事化,但随后中共在南海搞军事化;另外他还有一个表态,要停止对美国公司的网络窃密,结果后来变本加厉的网络窃密。所以这两个使习近平本人在美国失去了信誉,或者几乎失去了信誉。那么另外一个要点是,当这一两年川普政府跟习近平政府在谈判过程之中,后来川普政府逐渐发现,川普政府说,障碍在习近平,习近平是中美谈判的障碍,中美关系的障碍。从白宫经济顾问库德洛到美国总统川普都做了这样一个表示,说刘鹤等人都愿意达成协议,但最后习近平障碍了。所以习近平本人必须出来做这个表态这一次。如果他不做这个自己的陈述和承诺的话,这个会谈不会开始。另外这个会谈一开始由习近平讲,就代表了由中方来主讲,就说他有一锤定音,定于一尊的作用。他做了这个表态,才能最低限度的取信于美方。所以这个对于习近平来说是最后的机会。那么之所以为什么习近平愿意让步就是三个原因,除了说中方是加害者,美方是受害者,所以他有让步的基础;第二个他有让步的条件是,中方是一党专政,习近平是大权在握,而美方是民主制度,所以习近平让步他能做出他让步的条件,而党内或民间很少能够反对;第三个原因是中国经济走下坡路,而美国经济走上坡路,中国经济扛不住了。如果发生市场转移和制造业的大崩溃,会影响了中国整个经济的动摇。所以习近平不得不做出大幅度的让步。”
“The Chinese regime repeatedly employed a delaying tactic. Soon after Trump took office they staged a “100-day negotiation,” which ended up in failure due to the CCP’s delay. Later Vice Premier Liu He came to the U.S. for another rounds of talks. But no good faith had been found on the part of the Chinese regime. Then the U.S. laid aside the negotiations. China didn’t ask the U.S. to resume the talks until its economy dropped to a dangerous point with the escalating trade war. However, Trump declared more than once that he wouldn’t restart the negotiations so soon, saying that China was not ready to reach a deal. The U.S. didn’t agree to launch this meeting until many promises, even from Xi himself, were made. So the spotlight of this talk was the fact that Xi spent 30 minutes elaborating his concessions to the U.S. team at the very start of the summit. This was done for two reasons. One, Xi almost lost his reputation for the U.S. part. Back in 2015, Xi made two promises to then-American President Obama: one, the South China Sea would never become militarized, but China ate its words later; two, China’s cyber theft targeted at American businesses would be stopped, which turned out to be more alarming than ever. Therefore, Xi lost (or nearly lost) his credibility in the U.S. Further, the past two years’ interactions with the Xi administration taught the U.S. counterpart that the barrier to Sino-U.S. talks or ties was no other than Xi himself. Both Mr. Kudlow, the director of the national economic council, and President Trump showed that Liu He and others consented to a deal, but finally Xi stood in the way. So this time, Xi Jinping himself had to stand out and air his own statements and commitments. Otherwise this meeting would be impossible. Moreover, this posture unmistakably signaled that Xi has the authority of giving a final say. Only by doing so could Xi gain his credibility from the U.S. Again, the last chance for him. There are three reasons for his willingness to back down. First, China is the inflicting party, with the U.S. being the victim, thereby accounting for Xi’s concessions. Secondly, compared with American democracy, Xi’s domination in a party state like China paved his way to concessions, whose authority can stifle dissent either from the CCP or from the Chinese society. Thirdly, China feels like it’s economically breaking down since its economy has been going downward while the American economy is improving. If market transfers and manufacturing collapse occurs, China’s whole economy will be shaken. As a result, Xi Jinping had to offer sweeping concessions.”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):我还邀请安一鸣谈了对川-习会的看法。他是南加州大学马歇尔商学院的助理教授。曾与纳瓦罗合著《致命中国》一书。
I also asked Greg Autry his opinion on the summit. Mr. Autry is assistant Professor of Clinical Entrepreneurship at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California. He also co-wrote the book《Death by China》.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“关于川-习会,一些分析人士称川普被习近平愚弄了。习近平不会真的做出实质性让步。相反,他们只是欺骗美国,以便争取时间,想出一些新招术维持现状,就像他们对付前几届美国政府一样。您认为川普会被习近平再次愚弄、操纵吗?”
“ Simone Gao: Regarding the Trump-Xi summit, some analysts say Trump was fooled by Xi Jinping. Xi will not really make substantial concessions. Instead, they will just trick the U.S. in order to buy some time to come up with new ways to maintain the status quo, just like what they did with previous administrations. Do you think Trump will be fooled and manipulated again by Xi Jinping?”

安一鸣(南加州大学马歇尔商学院教授/《致命中国》作者之一):“我认为川普不会轻易上当。不过,我确实认为,整个美国政府和政府之外的金融界都在期待,尤其是跨国公司和投资者希望看到某种形式的谈判和协议。所以,川普和他的团队面临很大的压力,至少看起来他们愿意这样做。因此,只要习近平说了一些正确的事情,坦率地说,他们就有必要给中国增加一点约束。当然,我们只需等待,然后会发现习作出的那些承诺都是假的,他们一贯如此。但是,不幸的是,我认为总统面临的处境是,他看起来不是那么坏。他必须得再给习一次机会,一次虚假承诺的机会。我认为,川普定了90天这么一个时间很紧的期限,然后就提高关税,而且这个截止期限不是1月1日才开始,而是现在就已经开始了。这个事实,在我看来就是清楚地表明,他们并不希望在这方面浪费太长时间。”
Greg Autry:“ I don’t think that Donald Trump is easily fooled. I do think, however, the expectations of the United States’ government as a whole and the financial interests that go beyond the government, and particularly, multinational corporations and investors want to see some sort of negotiation and agreement, so there was a great deal of pressure on Trump and the Trump team to at least appear that they were open to doing so. So as long as Xi said some of the right things, I think that they were required to give China, frankly, a little more leash. And we’re just going to have to just wait and find out, of course, that those promises made by Xi are false, which they always are. But, unfortunately, I think the president was in a situation where he couldn’t look like that bad guy. He had to let Xi, one more time, make a false promise. And I think the fact that Trump set a very tight deadline on it of 90 days before he upped the tariffs, and that deadline starts, not on January 1st, but it starts right now, makes it clear to me that they don’t intend to mess around with this for very long.”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“您最近在《外交政策》杂志上发表了一篇文章,文中写道,‘两年来,权威专家已经不再大谈、特谈中国会不可避免地迈向资本主义、迈向民主国家之类的废话了,而是在发问:对一个我们都认为是建立在谎言和欺骗基础上的危险政权,关税是否是与之对抗的正确策略。’这个怎么理解?您认为川普的成功仅仅是基于贸易吗?说得再具体一点,关税是川普可用的唯一的工具,还是最好的工具?”
“ In your recent article in Foreign Policy, you wrote, “Over the last two years, establishment pundits shifted from spouting nonsense about China’s inevitable progress toward capitalism and democracy to asking whether tariffs are the right way to confront a dangerous regime we all agree is built on lies and cheating.” So what about that? Do you think Trump has pinned his success on trade alone, more specifically, are tariffs the only tool or the best tool at Trump’s disposal?”

安一鸣(南加州大学马歇尔商学院教授/《致命中国》作者之一):“我认为在川普的所有政策中,他的贸易政策是最有成效的。现在美国失业率创历史新低,GDP增长异常之高,大街上人们对经济表现感到满意。而在中国情况刚好相反,所以川普实现了他所期待的,就是运用关税在经济领域对中国高层施加影响。也就是说,如果政府想扩大战果的话,关税并不是唯一的工具。其中,他们可以做的一件事就是可以考虑给中国高管和中国留学生颁发签证一事。最近华为一名高管被捕,在我看来,对于涉嫌参与知识产权盗窃、转让、危及美国国家安全的个人的实际行为,他们是非常严肃地看待的。假如美国开始考虑互惠性法律,那也是非常合理的。所以如果中国企业想来美国发展,它们也必须以合资企业形式,就像美国企业为了在中国市场开展业务,常常被迫与中国国企成立合资企业一样。我们还可以强迫中国公司转让技术,中国政府怎么做,我们也怎么做。如果他们什么技术都没有,又想打入我们的市场,也许我们可以向他们收取市场准入费,以支付我们研发技术所需的基本费用。事实上,美国企业和个人在中国不能真正拥有自己的物业,而中国企业却可以在美国狂买物业、大片的土地和矿产资源,而在中国运营的美国企业却不可以这么做。我们应该把规则调整到平衡状态,阻止中国人在美国买房子、买地、买矿产资源。”
Greg Autry:“ I think that of all of Trump’s policies, his trade policy has been the most effective. U.S. unemployment rate is at a record low. GDP growth is exceptionally high. People on the street are happy with economic performance, and just the opposite is happening in China. So he’s achieved what he wanted, which was leverage over the Chinese leadership in an economic realm using the tariffs. That said, that’s not the only tool that would be available to the administration if they wanted to pursue this further. One of the things they could do would be look at visas for Chinese executives and Chinese students. The recent arrest of a Huawei executive says to me that they’re looking very seriously at the actual behavior of individuals involved in the intellectual property theft and transfer and threats to U.S. national security. It’s also quite reasonable to assume that the U.S. will begin looking at reciprocal laws. So if Chinese organizations want to come to the U.S., they’d be forced into joint partnerships very similar to the way that U.S. companies are forced into joint partnerships often with Chinese state-owned enterprises in order to do business in the Chinese market. We could also force Chinese companies to transfer technology in order to have access to our market the same way that the Chinese government has done. And if they don’t have any technology, perhaps we could charge a market access fee where they need to essentially pay for us to develop technology if they’re going to come into our market. The fact that U.S. companies and individuals can’t really own property in China, and yet Chinese companies have been allowed to come into the U.S. and buy up real property and large swaths of land and mineral resources, which are not available to U.S. firms operating in China, we should level those rules out and prevent Chinese access to real estate, to land, and to mineral resources.”

Coming up, besides Trump, what else caused Beijing to make concessions?
接下来,我们谈谈除了川普之外,是否还有其它因素迫使北京作出让步?

第2部分:美国民众是相信白宫?还是相信中共官媒?
Part two: Do Americans Trust Chinese State-owned Media More than the White House?

原本在川-习会之前表现良好的股市,在12月4日突然出现波动,道琼斯指数下跌了近800点。债券收益率也大幅下滑。华盛顿邮报指出,造成这种现象的原因是美-中(共)双方对G-20峰会的成果说法不一。该报认为川普的某些说法并未得到其他政府要员的确认。报导中还引述了一位匿名的前政府官员对川普的批评,称:“和中共打交道的时候要遵守一些禁忌,千万不要大张旗鼓的宣扬己方的胜利,这是犯忌的”。
Leading up to the Trump-Xi summit, the stock market showed confidence until December 4th, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average suddenly fell nearly 800 points. Bond yields also plummeted. The Washington Post attributed the market downturn to the differing U.S. and China accounts from the G20 summit. The Post challenged some of Trump’s claims, saying they could not be confirmed by officials from the administration. It also quoted an anonymous former official criticizing Trump, saying, quote, “You don’t do this with the Chinese. You don’t triumphantly proclaim all their concessions in public. It’s just madness.”

MSNBC头条新闻的题目更直白:“川普并未与中共达成所谓的重要协议。”
MSNBC’s headline was more blunt: “Trump’s incredible deal’ with China doesn’t appear to exist.”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao): 这一大堆的报导让我好奇,是不是白宫和中国的国有媒体的看法不一致?美国民众是不是信赖中国媒体更多?我问了安一鸣先生是不是这样。
The slew of reports made me wonder if there were discrepancies in the accounts between the White House and Chinese state-owned media. Does the American public believe the Chinese media more? I asked Mr. Autry whether they do or not.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“12月5日,道琼斯指数下跌了将近800点。华盛顿邮报暗示说下跌是由于美中到川-习会的矛盾报导导致的。我的问题是:如果美中两边的说法确实不一样,美国民众是不是更倾向于相信中国的说法?不然的话, 为什么股市会下跌?”
“December 5 , the Dow fell nearly 800 points. The Washington Post suggested it dropped because of the contradicting reports from China and the U.S. My question is this: If there are discrepancies in the description between the two sides, are the American people really inclined to believe the Chinese side? Otherwise, why did the stock market fall?”

安一鸣(南加州大学马歇尔商学院教授/《致命中国》作者之一):“中国有一个好的多的‘印象管理’系统。中共有世界上最好的宣传系统。他们非常擅长让他们的信息被感觉到。还有,老实说,大多数美国的跨国公司都是和中国的利益更一致。大多数他们的工作都在那里,他们的大多数产品也在那里生产。大多数美国的投资银行家和金融人士,就是那些说的话经常在媒体上被引用的人,他们也捐钱给那些给财经媒体贡献主要内容的华盛顿的智库。而这些人都是站在中国一边的。这些人直接从中共那里拿信息,然后重复这些信息。这种做法很容易,而且美国公众也习惯了,安之若素。社会大众不是造成道琼斯指数显著下跌,或者债务市场调整的原因。大多数美国大众都不是活跃的证券交易者。那些活跃的做交易的个人,数量是很少的。市场下跌,那是因为投资银行家和财经人士,那些和中国利益一致的人,他们感到不高兴了。我认为他们已经意识到事态的发展不会如其所愿,所以他们从金融市场上抽走了部分资金,这不是很惊奇。”
Greg Autry: “So the Chinese have a much better perception management campaign, the Communist Party has the best global propaganda system in the world. And they’re very good at making their message be felt. And, frankly, most American multinational corporations are more aligned with the Chinese interests. That’s where most of their jobs are and their products are produced. And most American investment bankers and finance folks that get quoted in the media or make donations to D.C. think tanks that produce the dominant paradigm that ends up in the financial media, these folks are all aligned with the Chinese side, and they take their messaging right from the Communist Party, and they repeat it. And that’s easy to do, and the American public is used to that and comfortable with that, in fact. But don’t assume that because you see that Dow fall significantly or the bond market adjust that that’s the American public. Most of the American public are not active traders of equities. And the ones that are, as individuals, that’s a very small amount of the market. When the market moves, it’s because investment bankers and financial professionals who are aligned with the Chinese side of things are unhappy. And so I think they’ve realized that this isn’t going to happen. And so they’ve pulled back a bit, and that shouldn’t be a surprise.”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“说起美国经济,很多投资人,包括高盛,预测美国经济明年衰退。你怎么看?”
“ Talking about the U.S. economy, a number of investors, including Goldman Sachs, predicted a U.S. recession next year. What do you think?”

安一鸣(南加州大学马歇尔商学院教授/《致命中国》作者之一):“首先,我们要认识到经济已经成长了10年,所以明年衰退一下不是什么惊人的事情。当然是有这种指标,是说很多市场,包括房地产和证券市场,成长了很长时间了,所以一个修正是在预期中的,所以我不知道那是不是不会发生,收益率曲线和别的指标显示修正是完全可能的。我希望美联储会这个时候停止升息,因为升息让我们移动到那个衰退的位置。但是我们现在经济形势很好,如果我们有任何常规的衰退,这不会是太大的问题。 高盛和其它控制财经媒体口径的投资银行的问题是,他们的兴趣只在于下一个季度会发生什么和短期的利益回报,因为那些公司的分析师和交易员退休的早,他们的CEO们为跨国企业背书。平均来说CEO的任期只有五年,所以他们想要短期结果。他们对美国的长期利益不关心,工人的长期利益,我们的国家安全,或是别的任何东西。川普理解这一点,我认为和投资银行家的意见相比,他更看重自己代表的那些选民的意见。”
Greg Autry: “Well, first of all, we’ve got to realize we’ve had a ten-year growth spurt, so having a recession next year would not be a surprise. There are certainly a number of indicators that many of the markets, including the real estate and equity markets, are, as we say, long in the tooth, meaning that they’ve grown for so long that a correction is to be expected. So I don’t know that that won’t happen. The yield curve and other indicators suggest that it’s entirely possible. I would hope the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates at this point because that has helped move us to that position. But we’re in a really strong position and, if we underwent any normal recession, it wouldn’t be a significant problem. The problem with Goldman Sachs and most of the investment banks that control a lot of the financial media opinions, their interest is only in what happens next quarter and returning short-term profits because the analysts and traders at those companies retire early, and the CEOs did help back the multinational corporations. They’re only, on average, a CEO for five years. So they want short-term results. They don’t care about the long-term interests of the United States, the long-term interests of workers, our national security, or any of those other things. And Donald Trump understands that, and I don’t think he’s going to take their opinions more seriously than any of the other stakeholders he represents.”

接下来:美中(共)峰会后发生了什么?
Coming up, what’s happened since the summit?

第3部分:峰会后美中(共)之间的角力
Part Three: Moves by the U.S. and Beijing After the Summit.

就在川普总统和习近平就贸易战达成停火协议的同一天,12月1日,加拿大逮捕了华为公司的财务总监,孟晚舟。孟是华为的副董事长,还是华为创始人任正非的女儿。美国在那一周之前发出了对孟的逮捕令。一位加拿大法官在11月30日签发了逮捕令,罪名是涉嫌欺诈。孟晚舟被指控于2013年,对美国金融机构有意隐瞒了华为和香港公司SkyCom的关系。SkyCom违反了美国的禁运规定把美国产品卖给了伊朗。华为是世界上最大的电信网络设备供应商。在2004年,思科公司起诉华为盗窃自己的技术,用于开发路由器和交换机系列,反过来于思科竞争。在华为保证对产品修改设计后,思科撤回了起诉。
On December 1st, the same day President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed to a trade war truce, Canada arrested the chief financial officer of China’s Huawei Technologies, Meng Wanzhou. Meng is the deputy chair of Huawei’s board and the daughter of the company’s founder, Ren Zhengfei. The arrest warrant was issued by the United States a week earlier. A Canadian justice then issued a warrant on November 30th. Meng allegedly committed fraud in 2013 by lying to U.S. financial institutions about Huawei’s connection with Hong Kong company SkyCom, which reportedly sold U.S. goods to Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions. Huawei is the world’s largest maker of telecommunications network equipment. In 2004, CISCO sued Huawei for using stolen Cisco technology to develop a lineup of routers and switches sold in competition to the American company. Cisco later dropped the lawsuit in exchange for a promise from its rival to modify its product lineup.

在同一天,川普总统发推:“中(共)方回国后作了一些明确的表示。不能说我太幼稚,我真的相信习主席在会晤中作出的承诺。我们讨论了所有的问题。”
On the same day, President Trump tweeted, quote, “Very strong signals being sent by China once they returned home from their long trip, including stops, from Argentina. Not to sound naive or anything, but I believe President Xi meant every word of what he said at our long and hopefully historic meeting. ALL subjects discussed!”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):请安一鸣和陈破空为我们解读川普总统的对华(共)态度,并展望美-中(共)贸易战的前景。
What does all this say about the U.S.-China trade war and President Trump’s attitude toward China now? Let’s hear form Greg Autry and Pokong Chen again.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“十二月一日,华为的CFO,也是创始人的女儿,孟晚舟在加拿大被捕。美国要求引渡她。你怎么看这个事情?你认为这件事和贸易战有关系吗?”
“ On December 1st, Meng Wanzhou, Huawei C.F.O. and daughter of the founder of the company, was arrested in Canada for extradition to the U.S. What do you make of her arrest? Do you think it is related to the U.S.-China trade war?”

安一鸣(南加州大学马歇尔商学院教授/《致命中国》作者之一):“绝对有。某种程度上,不可能没有,因为美国寻求的对中国的惩罚,不一定是关于产品的,海鸥关于知识产权盗窃和强制知识产权转让的行为。华为是偷窃美国知识产权的排头兵,也是中共将互联网和通信基础设施塞进西方世界的工具,他们可以进一步利用来实施网络间谍和工业间谍活动。所以逮捕孟是发出一个完美的信号。这项逮捕行动不一定是有意的安排,但是我在2013年在众议院外交事务委员会关于中国的网络间谍行动作证的时候就把华为作为头号目标来看待。所以我对此不感到吃惊。”
Greg Autry: “Absolutely. It, to some extent, couldn’t not be because the focus on the penalties that the U.S. is putting on China are not necessarily over the specific products on the list, but over the intellectual property theft and behavior that requires the transfer of intellectual property. And Huawei is like the poster child for stealing U.S. intellectual property and as a tool for the Chinese party to insert network infrastructure and communications infrastructure into Western countries that it can further use to inflict cyber espionage and industrial espionage on those countries. So it’s the perfect message to send. I don’t know whether the arrest was intentionally related to that, but Huawei has been a company that I identified back in 2013 when I testified to the House Foreign Affairs Committee on China cyber espionage as the primary target to look at. So I’m not surprised by that.”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“所以你认为这不是巧合?这反映了川普对中国的态度?”
“ So you think this is not a coincidence? It says something about trump’s attitude towards China?”

安一鸣(南加州大学马歇尔商学院教授/《致命中国》作者之一):“有可能。你可能也注意到川普政府开始对外国公司高管的签证有所行动,可能甚至包括学生签证,因为他们手里有很多别的工具。他们不打算让外国势力继续窃取美国资产。我认为他们会对这一点很强硬。关税不是唯一的途径。像我说过的,就算暂停征关税,他们也还可以对上述那些交流活动设限,或考虑其它一些制裁措施。”
Greg Autry:“ I think it’s possible. And, again, I think you might see that they take action on visas for corporate executives or maybe even for students or, who knows, because they’ve got a lot of other tools in their pocket and they don’t intend to let a foreign power continue to steal U.S. assets. And I think they’re going to be pretty strong about that. And tariffs are not the only way to do it. So if they put the tariffs on hold, like I said, they could look at those reciprocal rules, they could look at all these other issues.”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):在之前,人们都认为共产中国和习近平不可能做出结构性改变,因为这会改变中共如何运作经济,如何运作国家,也就是中共如何保住权力。所以改变这些会要求某种形式的政治改革,这一直是中共不可打破的底线。同意做出结构性改变的话,习近平和中共是不是真的愿意放弃底线?现在这么想还太早了。只有一个办法能找到答案,就是时间。请您继续关注我们的节目,看川普是不是在美中贸易战中会大获全胜。感谢收看,我是萧茗。您也可以关注我们的脸书或是Youtube频道。下次节目再见。
Before, there was an understanding that communist China and Xi Jinping are unable to make structural changes because it would change how the Communist Party runs the economy, how it runs the country, and basically how it stays in power. So changing these would require political reform of some sort, which has always been its bottom line that can’t be broken. So by agreeing to these structural changes, will Xi Jinping and the communist regime really be giving up their bottom line? It is still hard to believe at this point. There is only one way to find out: time. So stay tuned to find out if Trump really will hit a homerun in the U.S.-China trade war. Thanks for watching. I am Simone Gao. Please like our Facebook page and subscribe to our YouTube channel at 《Zooming In with Simone Gao》. See you next time.


End

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链接:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVWMVBg1RPrDlakdmbyTKBA

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Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao
Editors:Julian Kuo Bonnie Yu Frank Lin Bin Tang York Du
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Interview Overdub: Kacey Cox
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Greg Yang, Frank Yue Xiaofeng Zhang Juan Li
Cameraman:York Du Wu Wei Eric Zhang
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer: Bin Tang Merry Jiang
Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com
Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

New Tang Dynasty Television
《Zooming In》
December , 2018

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