【世事关心】史帕丁将军:我们不会与中国达成贸易协议

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【新唐人北京时间2019年07月02日讯】【世事关心】史帕丁将军:我们不会与中国达成贸易协议

We Will Not Have a Trade Deal With China: Robert Spalding

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Hundreds of Chinese companies that pose threats to national security and violate human rights have entered the U.S. capital market.

数百家威胁国家安全、侵犯人权的中国公司已经进入美国资本市场。

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“你不能针对美国公司用一套规则,要求他们必须完全透明,你要知道他们做的一切。然后你让那些中国公司过来说:嘿,我们想挣钱, 但我们不想告诉你我们在做什么。”

Robert Spalding: “You can’t have one set of rules for American companies where they have to be completely transparent. You know everything that’s going on. And you have the Chinese companies coming and saying: hey we want money. But we don’t want to tell you what we are doing.”

川普政府要求美中贸易关系发生结构性变化,共产党会同意吗?

The Trump administration is asking for structural changes in US-China trade relations, will the Communist Party agree to it?

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“本质上说,这是中共控制的指令经济,他们不想解体它,因为对中共来说最重要的是他们说了算。”

Robert Spalding: “In essence, you have a command of economy that is controlled by the Communist Party. And they don’t want to dismantle it because the most important thing to the Communist Party is that they stay in control. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“按这个逻辑,我们最终无法达成贸易协议了吗?”

Simone: Follow this logic, will we not have a trade deal in the end?

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“我觉得最终达不成贸易协议。 ”

Robert Spalding: “I don’t think we are going to have a deal in the end. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):在美中贸易战期间,我采访了罗伯特·史帕丁将军。他曾在国防部和国务院担任战略和外交高级职位超过26年。他还在中国多年,学习了汉语。 在大阪举行的川习会之前,我问他在美国中国贸易战中真正关键的是什么。 我是萧茗,欢迎收看 《世事关心》。

Amidst the US China trade war, my interview with General Robert Spalding. He has served in senior positions of strategy and diplomacy within the Defense and State Departments for more than 26 years. He has also spent years in China and learned the Chinese language. Leading up to the Trump Xi summit in Osaka, I asked him what’s really at stake in the U.S. China trade war. I am Simone Gao, and you are watching Zooming In.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“ 史帕丁将军,很高兴再次见到你。”

Simone :“All right. General Spalding,Very nice to see you again.”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“很高兴再次上节目。”

Robert Spalding: “Good to be back.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“是的。川普总统和习近平主席将于周六举行会谈,讨论美国的贸易问题,对会议的结果有各种各样的猜测。 我很想知道,在您看来,对美国来说最有利的结果是什么?”

Simone: “Yes. So president Trump and President Xi are going to meet on Saturday to talk about U.S China trade and there are all sorts of speculations on what could come out of that meeting. And I just want to know, in your opinion, what kind of outcome would be in America’s best interest?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“嗯,我觉得总统应该走提高关税、迫使美国和中共脱钩的路。 我不知道这会不会发生。我觉得更可能看到的是,对另外3000亿美元商品征收关税会延缓。 但随着时间的推移,中国人不会讨价还价。 他们不会改变他们已有的整个经济结构。 他们不会进行, 公平和自由的贸易, 他们肯定做不到。 这个国家的结构,控制结构、与国企有关的人、那些坐在习近平身后、支持中共的掌权的人,他们不可能接受国内整个结构的变化。”

Robert Spalding: “Well, certainly I believe that the president ought to stick on the path of increasing the tariffs and forcing the decoupling between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party. I don’t know if that’s what’s going to happen. I think more likely we’re going to see a delay in the imposition of the tariffs on the extra 300 billion. But over time the Chinese aren’t going to bargain. They’re not going to change their structural integrity of the economy that they built. They’re not going to, you know, have fair and free trade. They just can’t do it. The structure, the control structure, in the country…the people that are affiliated with the state owned enterprises, the ones that are in power that sit behind Xi Jinping and promote the communist party, they cannot accept a change in the structure within the country.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“这其实是整个事情中非常重要的因素。 比如说,中国,特朗普总统正在迫使中国接受这些结构性变化,假设中国接受了,但实际上他们又真的不会这样做,对吧?这意味着共产党的灭亡。”

Simone: “That’s actually a very important factor in this whole thing. Say if China, I mean president Trump is pushing for China to accept those structural changes, say China accepts it, but in reality they really can’t do it. Right. That means the demise of the Communist Party.”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“是的,接受这个条件,基本上就是要翻转他们过去几年所做的事。过去的几年,他们一直在巩固国有企业地位。他们一直在加强国有企业,而不是解体它。因此,尽管从他们加入世贸组织后,在每个五年计划里都说他们会改革开放,他们其实一直都在反其道而行之,现在国有企业绝对是国内最强大的。就算不是国有企业,是所谓的私人公司,但仍然与解放军和中共有着很深的关系。所以从本质上说,这是共产党控制的‘指令性经济’,而他们不想解体它,因为对共产党来说最重要的是他们说了算,他们对社会各经济杠杆的控制, 是除了军队之外,他们所有的、最重要的东西。”

Robert Spalding: “Right, and to accept, essentially the reversal of what they’ve been doing over the, just the last few years, over the last few years they’ve been consolidating state owned enterprises. They’ve been strengthening state owned enterprise, not dismantling. So even though they have said in every five year plan, since they joined the WTO that they were going to do reform and opening up, In fact, they have been reversing that process and now the state owned enterprises are absolute…the most powerful within the country. And if they’re not a state owned enterprise, then they’re a so-called private company, but still with incredible ties to the People’s liberation army and the Chinese Communist Party. So in essence, you have a command economy that is controlled by the Communist Party and they don’t want to dismantle it because the most important thing to the communist party is that they stay in control and they see that control of the economic levers of society, the most important that they have, in addition to the military.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“那么这就引出一个很重要的问题。从理论上讲,如果这是真的,那么贸易战就不可能有一个令双方满意的结果,对吧?”

Simone: “And this will lead to a very important question. Theoretically, if this is true, then the trade war can’t have an outcome that is satisfying to both parties, right?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“是的。如果不能在经济上发生结构性变化,那就意味着任何保证贸易协定的执行机制都是中共所不能接受的。 但是,如果不能在贸易协定中没有执行机制,实质上贸易协定就是一纸空文。现在,通过WTO我们知道,他们无法让中国做任何事情。 因此,在我们该指望中国共产党如何做到贸易执法这件事上,情况还和以前一样。(美国)政府现在才第一次明白,要想让共产党达成协议,唯一的办法就是协议得有牙齿(惩罚机制)。 如果协议中没有牙齿,就是一纸空文。”

Robert Spalding: “Right. So if he can’t have structural changes in the economy, that means any enforcement mechanism is unacceptable to the Chinese Communist Party. So if you can’t have an enforcement mechanism on a trade agreement, in essence, you don’t have a trade agreement. Now we know through the WTO that they have not been able to get China to do really anything. And so it’s not a different world in terms of what we’ve come to expect with regard to how the Chinese Communist party deals with trade enforcement. It’s just now for the first time that the administration realizes that the only way to actually get the communist party to deal is to have teeth in the agreement. And if you don’t have teeth in the agreement, you essentially have no agreement.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“这样说来,我们最终还无法达成贸易协议?”

Simone: “So, following this logic will we not have a trade deal in the end?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“我觉得达不成贸易协议。 我认为会有一系列对话,来寻求弥合‘要价与还价’之间的差距,我刚刚听到‘要价与还价’之间的差距还越来越大了。我认为中美双方会需求对话,为了显得自己在努力缩小‘要价与还价之间’的差距,一直到2020年选举期间。 但是,就象我所说,共产党做不到。 所以中美双方唯一能做的,就是谈话,无它。”

Robert Spalding: “I don’t believe we’re going to have a trade deal. I think what we’re gonna have is a series of dialogues that seek to bridge the gap between the ‘Bid and the Ask’to use a quote, that I just recently heard the ‘bid and the ask’ is getting wider. I think they’re going to seek to have dialogue that, attempts to portray, the narrowing of the‘ bid and the ask’ right up through the 2020 elections. But, as I said, the Communist Party can’t deal. So the only thing they can do is talk. That’s it.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“莱特希泽和姆努钦周一会见了刘鹤,他们表示希望在川习会后重新启动与中国的贸易谈判,并表示,或许我们最终可以达成协议。 你说最终不会达成贸易协议。我的问题是,要是最终没有达成贸易协议,你认为川普政府能接受吗?”

Simone: “So Lighthizer and Mnuchin met with Liu He on Monday and they expressed a hope to relaunch the trade talks with China after the Trump-Xi meeting and expressing, you know, maybe we can reach a deal in the end or something. So you are saying there’s not going to be a trade deal in the end. And my question is, do you think the Trump administration will be okay with not having a trade deal in the end?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“我认为川普政府追求的是美国的国家利益,美国人民的利益,真的是美国人民的利益,这些都没有从与中共的密切关系中获利。 认识到这一点,象他们做的那样,要求与中共有一个更公平互惠的关系,我认为这是完全公平的。我不会这么做,但我也理解他们至少尝试一下。 当然中共做不到, 姆努钦说贸易协定90%定下来了, 所以,实际上他说的是,已经造了一辆汽车,90%完工了, 唯一要做的就是安上轮子, 不安轮子,汽车也不是车了。”

Robert Spalding: “I think they’re pursuing the U.S. National interest, the interests of the American people and the interests of the American people really, have not been served by this close personal relationship with the Chinese Communist Party. And so recognizing that and offering, which they’ve done, offering a more fair and reciprocal, relationship to the Chinese Communist Party, I think is something completely fair. I wouldn’t do it, but I understand their attempt to at least try. Of course the Chinese Communist Party can’t do it. You know, Mnuchin said the agreement, it was 90% done. So, in essence, what he’s saying, you’ve built a car, the car is 90% complete. The only thing that we have to do is put wheels on it. And? No wheels, no car.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“好的。 你知道,华尔街一直在抛出威胁和警告;一些华尔街策略师说,如果峰会没有任何达成贸易协定的正面迹象,反而贸易紧张局势升级,从现在开始,全球经济可能会衰退到目前的四分之三。”

Simone: “Alright. You know, Wall Street has been throwing some threats you know, warnings and some of the Wall Street strategists are saying if, the summit does not yield any positive signs of a deal, but rather an escalation of trade tensions, there could be a global recession three quarters from now.”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“嗯,有些迹象显示这种情况正在发生。 但还有其它因素。 不一定仅仅是因为与中国的贸易问题导致了这一点。 原因是很多供应链已经转移到其它地方了。 所以,不可避免的会有一些调整。 但我认为,从长远是看,有一个更稳定、公平、互惠的贸易环境对美国和其它民主国家来说更好。更不用说自2012年以来,随着习近平崛起,中国在世界上越来越大地区强推自己的利益,给美国和其它民主国家的金融以及整体经济繁荣、自由和经济上造成了胁迫。”

Robert Spalding: “Well that the indications are that that is happening. But there are other factors involved. It’s not necessarily just because of this trade issue with China that’s causing that. The reason is, is that a lot of those supply chains are moving to other places already. And so, um, you know, it is inevitable that there’s going to be some adjustments. But I think in the long run, you know, it’s better for America and other democracies, that they have a more stable, fair, reciprocal trading environment. Not to mention in financial and in overall economic prosperity and just in freedom and freedom from economic coercion, which essentially, ever since 2012 and the rise of Xi Jinping, you know, China has been forcing their interests in more and more of the globe.”

 

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“川习会之后,如果没谈好,没有达成协议或是没有达成协议的迹象,你认为川普总统会立刻提高关税吗?”

Simone: “After the Trump Xi meeting. If things don’t go well, there’s no deal or signs of a deal.. Do you think president Trump would raise the tariffs right off?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“川普政府最终会和中共翻脸。可我觉得,他们会继续给市场信心,故此市场不会恐慌,继续给美国企业信心。我觉得应当发生但还没有发生的,是第二部分,国家安全战略是什么呢?即基础设施的投资、研发的投资、对我们自己经济的投资,来帮助,你看,供应链正在转移。主要转去东南亚和其它国家。 其中一些可以回到美国,但这需要政府有倾向美国的优惠投资政策。 我认为这一点可能还未到来。”

Robert Spalding: “Eventually they’re going to say enough is enough. I think though, what they’re trying to do is continue to portray confidence to the markets so that the markets aren’t spooked, continue to portray confidence to American businesses. I think what needs to happen and what hasn’t happened yet is the second part of the…What’s in the national security strategy, which is investment in infrastructure, investment in research and development, investment in our own economy to help, you know…The supply chain is moving. It’s moving mostly to Southeast Asia and other countries. Some of it can move back to the United States, but it needs to be encouraged by a pro US investment policy by the administration. And I think that’s a piece that has probably yet to come.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“那么这种紧缩下,华尔街会如何?”

Simone: “I was wondering what’s gonna Happen to Wall Street with those Tightening?”

 

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“我想做的是,你知道,这只是我做的一部分。我想做的就是告诉华尔街这些人,他们可以就在这里投资、在美国投资。 我们有世界上最低的能源成本,我们的公司税率在全球属于最低一档,我们有很多放宽了的管制, 你可以在这里开展业务。 你知道,我上回去台湾时,我想和捷安特谈,对吧? 世界上最大的自行车制造商, 你可以在这里制造自行车。 事实上,经济结构的变化(让建厂)有利可图。过去发生的那些造成劳动力成本高、能源成本高,你知道,所有那些不利于在美国做制造业的因素,都消失了。如果我们建设安全的全国5G网络,它会成为先建设制造业的首选地点。 知道吗? 所以,我认为我的目标是从安全和经济两方面,与盟友囯之间建立伙伴关系,比如台湾、日本、韩国,以及其它希望与美国保持密切关系的国家,然后带来投资用于重建美国的工业产能。 我认为这完全行得通, 这就是为什么我离开军队去做这件事的原因。 那是因为,我想,如果这样做,就可以治愈我们的国家, 我们可以让我们的人民重新有工作。 但更重要的是,这样做,我们会使我们的民主体制更加强大。 然后,我们就可以成为那些包括中国人民在内、期望有民主制度的国家的灯塔。”

Robert Spalding: “What I’m trying to do, and this is, you know, this is just a part of what I do…What I’m trying to do is show, you know, these people on Wall Street that they can invest here in the United States. We have the lowest energy costs in the world. We have some of the lowest corporate tax rates. We have a lot of deregulation. You can actually build businesses here. You know, when I went to Taiwan, I want to talk to like, Giant, right? The biggest bicycle manufacturer, in the world. You can manufacture bicycles here. It’s actually, it’s profitable because of all the structural changes, all the things that were happening in the past that made it know the high labor costs, the high energy costs, you know, all of those things that made it, you know, uneconomic to do manufacturing in the United States, there are all gone away. And if we build the secure nationwide 5G network, it’s going to be the place to be for advanced manufacturing. You know? So, um, I think my goal is to form a partnership between us and our allies like Taiwan and Japan and, uh, South Korea and other countries that want this close relationship with the United States, both in terms of security and economics, and then bring some of the investment here to, to, to rebuild some of the industrial capacity of the United States. I think that’s totally doable. That’s why I got out of the military as to work on that. That because I thought if I did that, then we could heal our country. We could put our people back to work. But more importantly, you know, in doing so, we would make our democracy stronger. And then we could serve as a beacon to other nations that wanted to have democracy to include the people of China.”

下面节目,美国正在努力阻止中国主宰世界下一代网络空间。 这可以由美国单独完成吗?

Coming up, America is fighting to keep China from dominating the world’s next generation of cyber space. Can this be done by the U.S. alone?

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“特朗普总统表示愿意将华为问题纳入贸易谈判。你认为这样好吗?”

Simone: “President Trump has indicated willingness to include the Huawei issue in the trade talk. Do you think it’s a good idea?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“不好,因为我们说过华为问题不是一个经济问题,而是一个国家安全问题。它不是贸易问题,是一个国家安全问题。现在有一个基于国家安全紧急情况的行政命令。其实‘制裁清单’只针对国家安全问题。所以把华为带到贸易谈判中,并不能解决国家的安全问题。我们的挑战是,我们不想让华为进入美国的网络系统。那么可能会有人提出, 至于其它国家,就让他们自行决定吧……我们应该这么做吗?如果这样,我们就可以不用把华为列入实体制裁清单了。这个难在我们的去说服其它国家——其它民主国家,尤其是我们与之共享情报的安全同盟囯。如果这些国家使用华为网络,会让我们持续这种关系越发困难,甚至不可能持续。因此,其中一个办法就是继续把华为列在‘实体制裁清单上’,这是一个国家安全问题,实体制裁清单是用于处理国家安全问题的,所以我不认为华为会从实体制裁清单上消失,但是你知道, 我不是代表政府说话,所以我们走着看吧。”

Robert Spalding: “No, because we’ve said the Huawei issue is not an economic issue, it’s a national security issue. It’s not a trade issue. It’s a national security issue. There’s an executive order based on a national security emergency. The Entity List is only done for national security issues. And so I think bringing Huawei up in the context of a trade negotiation, does not deal with that national security issue. Now, the challenge is that we don’t want Huawei in our networks here in the United States. And so there may be an argument to say, well, let’s let, other countries decide on their own… would we do that? In which case, you know, we can stop, you know, with Huawei being on the entity list. The challenge with that though is that somehow we need to convince these other nations, these other democracies, particularly ones that we have as security alliance with that we share intelligence information with, that having Huawei in their networks, makes it increasingly difficult, if not impossible for us to continue those relationships. And so one, one of the ways that you do that is by continuing to keep Huawei on the Entity List. They are a national security issue. The entity list is for national security problems. So, I don’t think Huawei is coming off the Entity List, but, you know, I, I don’t speak for the administration. So we’ll see.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“有趣的是,你知道,华为最近受到了来自美国的沉重打击。谷歌和脸书切断了和华为的业务,华为也被美国商务部列入接收美国新设备的黑名单。然而,华为在全球仍继续有5g客户签约。所以问题是,如果世界其它国家不加入进来,你认为单凭美国能阻止华为吗?”

Simone: “The interesting thing is, you know, Huawei has received some heavy blows from America recently. Google and Facebook cut Huawei off and Huawei is also on the black list from the Commerce Department to receive American new equipment. However, Huawei is still signing up more 5g customers around the world. So the question is, if the rest of the world doesn’t get on board, do you think America alone can stop Huawei?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“嗯,我认为华为的公司规模会缩小。无论哪种方式,我认为各国都需要自行决定如何处理华为带来的挑战。我想你将会看到,你可能看到电信公司和华为签署协议。你会看到有国家不站出来表态说他们不会使用华为设备,但是一段时间以后,你将看到他们真正安装的也许并不是华为设备,因为这些国家他们都必须要考虑主权和他们的隐私和安全问题。如果你留意,你会看到实情。英国电信与华为有长期合作关系。英国有一份调查表明,他们向华为提出的许多安全缺陷仍然存在。更不用说,事实上每个改动都有引发更多的安全缺陷。最近又有一份关于华为设备所有安全缺陷的报告。我认为,随着时间的推移,人们意识到数据对他们自己经济和社会运行的重要性、特别是社会自由运行的重要性,他们就会认识到即使你不能得出华为是被共产党控制的结论,尽管这是个事实,至少你也要知道华为的设备是市面上最不安全的,不管其效能如何,它是最不安全的。而且我想,再往后,这也是我们在国家安全策略里写到的,数据是21世纪重要的战略资源,因此保护数据安全是国家最需要做的事。”

Robert Spalding: “Well, I think Huawei is going to be a smaller company. Either way. I think each country has to decide in its own way, how it deals with the challenge of Huawei. I think what you’ll see is…you may see Telcos sign agreements with Huawei. You may see country’s not come out vocally and say they’re not going to have Huawei equipment, but over time what you’re going to see is what actually gets installed probably won’t be Huawei because each of these countries has to deal with their own sovereignty and their own concerns about privacy and security. And so when you do that, when you look at the fact that not, you know, the, British Telecom, which has, you know, a long term partnership with Huawei, you know, there’s a study done in the UK saying that many of the security flaws that they brought up to Huawei are still in the gear. Not to mention the fact that each change that comes out has more security flaws in it. There’s recently another report coming out about all the security flaws that the Huawei gear has. I think over time as people realize how important data is to their, to the functioning of their economies and their societies, and certainly the free for free functioning of their societies, then they’re going to realize that even if you can’t come to the conclusion that Huawei is controlled by the Communist Party, which it is, that you at least know that the Huawei gear is the least secure of anything on the market today, regardless of how it performs, it’s the least secure. And I think, as going forward, and this is what we wrote in the national security strategy, data security is going to be the most important thing for nations to do, as data is a strategic resource in the 21st century.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“所以你认为安全问题最终会打败华为强大的游说攻势?”

Simone: “So you think the security concerns will eventually overpower the heavy lobby for Huawei?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“是的,你知道,这很像飞机。飞机曾经被轻视,直到比利·米切尔(美国空军之父)击沈了一艘德国驱逐舰。随着时间的推移,人们意识到飞机对战争的重要性,你知道,改变了战争的模式。在这个意义上,在动力学意义上,在进行着。同样的,有一些人很早就意识到网络将会对战争起著非常重要的作用。你知道,当我们看到这些5 G网络扩散、与机器相结合,因为它是一个机器的网络,人们会意识到一个事实——网络可能是我们用来保卫国家和守护民主最重要的东西。”

Robert Spalding: “Yeah, it’s, you know, it’s very much like the airplane, you know, the airplane was scoffed at, up until Billy Mitchell, you know, sunk a, German destroyer. And over time the realization of how important the airplane was to warfare, you know, now has, transformed the way war…in that sense, in the kinetic sense. Is conducted. In the same way, there were some that realized that networks, very early on, were going to be very important to warfare. And you know, as we see the proliferation of these 5G networks and their integration with machines, because it’s a network for machines, people are waking up to the fact that the network is probably going to be the most important thing that you use to both protect your nation and preserve your democracy.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“华为最近与俄罗斯签署了5G协议,对此你有何看法?”

Simone: “Huawei recently signed up Russia for 5G, what do you make of it?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“嗯,这还是,我认为所有这些政治声明和在公共场合的表态,我都不去太相信。我想看看,五年之后俄罗斯事实上安装了多少华为设备。我不知道你们是否还记得,川普总统访问北京时,他们宣布了大约2500亿美元的交易,回头看看有多少这样的交易真正实现了。所以特别是俄罗斯人和中国人,经常表态说我们要做这个或者我们要做那个。但是如果你回头核实一下,你知道,通常大多数都不会发生。”

Robert Spalding: “Well, again, I think all of these political statements and posturing in public…I don’t put much credence into. I’d like to see, you know, five years down the road how much Huawei equipment is actually in place in Russia. You know, I don’t know if you remember, but when, president Trump went to Beijing, they had, you know, something like $250 billion of announced deals. Go back and check how many of those deals actually came true. So there’s frequent posturing particularly by the Russians and the Chinese to say we’re going to do this or we’re going to do that. But if you go back and check, you know, usually most of them never actually happen.”

 

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“那么俄罗斯有后备计划吗?”

Simone: “So Russia has a backup plan?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“我认为俄罗斯的后备计划是,你知道,最近他们一直在练习如何完全断开互联网。所以,我想最终它可能把自己和世界切断,从而保护自己不受华为的影响。而且,我还是不认为俄罗斯会与华为建立全面的合作关系。我打赌你会看到爱立信、诺基亚和三星的设备。正如你所知道的,它们中的任何一个都有更为安全的基础。”

Robert Spalding: “I think Russia’s backup plan is they’ve been, you know, recently exercising, how to disconnect completely from the Internet. So, you know, I guess in the end it could just, you know, unplug itself from the world and therefore protect itself from Huawei. But again, I don’t think Russia is going to have a full partnership with Huawei. I would have bet that you’re going to see Ericsson and Nokia and Samsung equipment. They’re, as you know, each of those provides a more secure, um, foundation. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“在俄罗斯?”

Simone: “In Russia? ”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“是,俄罗斯。”

Robert Spalding: “in Russia.”

接下来,数百家对美国国家安全构成威胁、侵犯人权的中国公司正在美国资本市场交易。这意味着什么? 这个状况会被改变吗?

Coming up, hundreds of Chinese companies that pose national security threats to America or have violated human rights are being traded on the U.S. capital market. What does this mean and will it be changed?

Roger Robinson是金融安全专家。他曾经是里根总统国家安全委员会的高级主任,负责国际经济事务。他在执行里根总统最终打垮苏联的政策中起了重要作用。作为捷克共和国布拉格安全研究所的主席,他最近讲述了中共渗透美国和其它西方资本市场的广度及其不祥的战略影响。

Roger Robinson is an expert on financial security.  He was president Ronald Reagan’s Senior NSC director for International Economic Affairs and played an important role in executing the Reagan strategy that ultimately brought down the Soviet Union. As chairman of the Prague Security Studies Institute in the Czech Republic, he recently described the extent and ominous strategic implications of  China’s penetration into U.S. and other Western capital markets.

罗杰·罗伯逊(布拉格安全研究所总裁):“我们看看我们资本市场上中国公司的数目,我们发现有600多家,超过650家公司。纽约股票交易所有86家,纳斯达克有62家,场外交易市场有超过500家。你知道,场外交易市场对那些规避透明性和公开性要求的公司来说,是受监管最少和最受欢迎的。所以这里有各种各样的公司。其中很多往好里说是高风险实体,往坏里说,说白了是恶意玩家。我说的是各种危害国家安全的、还有侵犯人权的公司。我们可以谈谈几个确实的例子。很不幸,涉及的金额不是几千万美元,我们说的是几千亿美元,很快会发展到一万亿美元。这些恶意玩家正在吸引大量那些不够精明的投资人的资金。美国现在有多少投资人在这些金融市场里?一亿八千万到两亿。我不知道具体数目。但你能意识到,这个数字高的吓人。中国公司正在快速进入我们的市场融资,他们不顾一切的进入你的市场,你看到数万亿美元在未来两到三年涌入我们的市场,到达这样一个程度,可以想像的是,一天早上美国人醒来,发现中国的金融资产占到了他们退休账户投资组合的12%,15%,17%, 这样高的比例被中国的金融资产占据,你知道那时候会怎样?我们今天知道的中国说客,和那时候将要发生的事情比,不过是小巫见大巫。这些人认识到,如果美国对中国的各种恶行进行处罚或制裁,都可能而且将会使他们自己的资产, 换个说法,就是他们的退休金系统会贬值或者损失。”

Roger Robinson: So when we look at the number of companies that are in our capital markets today that are Chinese, we find that some 600, over 650 such enterprises are there. They’re probably around 86 in the New York Stock Exchange, 62 in in Nasdaq, and over 500 in the over-the-counter market, which is, as you know, the least regulated and the most popular for those seeking to skirt transparency and disclosure requirements. So here is a wide spectrum of companies. Many of them would be seen politely put as high risk entities, less politely put [as] outright bad actors. And I’m talking about national security abusers of all stripe as well as human rights abusers. And we can talk about some hard examples of this, but we’re not unfortunately talking about a few tens of millions of dollars. We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars and moving rapidly toward $1 trillion. Now that’s a lot of financing that’s being attracted from unwitting American investors. How many people do we have in our country, in the markets today? 180 million and 200 million Americans, I don’t know the number, but you can appreciate that it’s disturbingly high, and when you look at the pace at which the Chinese are coming into our markets for dollar financing, which they’re desperate for you, you start to see a trend where trillions of dollars are going to flow into our markets over the next two to three years to such an extent that it is conceivable that one morning the American people wake up and find, whether it’s 12%, 15%, 17%, some high number of their investment portfolios of their retirement portfolios are Chinese securities. Well guess what happens that day? The China lobby, as we know it today, appears to be a trivial asterisk next to what’s coming, when again, these folks realize that any American penalties or sanctions toward China based on it’s malevolent behavior could and probably would devalue or damage the value, another way to put it, of their retirement and pension systems.

 萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“Roger Robinson 是做了研究的。”

Simone: “You know, Roger Robinson has his research.”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“是的”

Robert Spalding: “Yeah.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“是有很多中国公司在美国资本市场,而且他们是恶意玩家。”

Simone: “A lot of Chinese companies are in the US capital market and they are bad actors.”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“是的”

Robert Spalding: “Right.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“那么有什么法律会通过来阻止这种现象吗?”

Simone: “So is there going to be legislation passed to stop that?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“绝对有,必须有。不能有对美国和中国公司的双重标准,说美国上市公司必须透明,其行为完全公开,而从中国来美国上市的公司就可以说我们只想要钱,但是我们不想告诉你们我们做什么。任何人都可以看出来这是发疯。这做法根本就不美国。但我们却允许了这种事情发生,正是表明我们对自由贸易能带来财富、而财富带来民主,这一点多么的有信心。我们曾经完全、绝对的相信这会发生。我们所做的就是打开门,奇妙的,让中国人走进来,然后带走了几千亿美元。”

Robert Spalding: “Absolutely. There has to be. You cannot have, you know, one set of rules for American companies where they have to be completely transparent and you know everything that’s going on and then have, you know, the Chinese companies come in and say, hey, we want money but we don’t want to tell you what we’re doing. I mean, anybody can see that that’s crazy. I mean, it’s not even, it’s not…it’s unamerican even. The fact that we allowed it to happen, you know, just indicates how confident we were in this free trade leads to wealth, wealth, leads to democracy. Like we were absolutely, supremely confident that that would happen. All we had to do is open up in, you know, magic and…to the point where we let the Chinese basically just walk out with hundreds of billions of dollars.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“你认为华尔街会试图阻止这个(法律)吗?”

Simone: “Do you think that Wall Street will try to stop that…try to stop this?”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“会的。他们反对是因为他们在这种交易中收费赚钱。他们不在乎和谁做交易,卖谁的股票和债券,他们在中间抽成,如果你告诉他们不能再销售中国股票和债券了,那就是断了他们财路。所以他们会反对(立法阻止中国公司),对吧?他们会说,其实他们已经说了,中国经济会增长,这是最佳投资地点。可是同时,每个人都知道中国经济在萎缩,除了中共放出的数据。你可以看看MSCI指数,新兴市场指数,我们现在贸易战之中,而这些指数是5-20%,这怎么可能呢?你到你的财务顾问那里,他会说我们要卖掉所有拉丁美洲的股票、东南亚股票,转去投资中国股票。你会坐那里想,嗯,这些公司都在搬出中国,搬到东南亚,我为什么要把钱放在中国呢?原因是中国告诉我要这么做,真疯狂。”

Robert Spalding: “Yes. Because you know, they’re against it because they make fees on that. They didn’t care who they’re, you know, whose stocks and bonds they’re selling. They take…they take a fee off the top. So you’re basically cutting into their fees when you say, Hey, you can no longer sell Chinese stocks and bonds. Right. So, yeah, they’re going to…they’re going to disagree with it, right?. They’re going to say, and they have said, oh, China’s economy is going to grow and it’s the best place to invest. Meanwhile, everybody knows it’s shrinking except for, you know, the data that comes out of the Communist Party. So…I mean, you can see like MSCI, the emerging markets index…We’re in the middle of a trade war and it goes from five to 20%. How does that make any economic sense? Or, you know, how would you…so you look, you would go to your portfolio advisor and he says, “Well, we should, you know, get rid of all these stocks in Latin American, in, Southeast Asia, and invest in Chinese stocks" And then you’re sitting there thinking, yeah, but the companies are moving out of China to Southeast Asia. Why am I putting money in China? Well, because China told me to. I mean, it’s just insane.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“所以会有一个立法行动。”

Simone: “Okay, so that’s going to happen.”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“要么是立法,要么是证监会或是财政部介入,中国公司随意来美国圈钱的日子就快结束了。”

Robert Spalding: “Whether it’s the legislation or the SEC steps in or Treasury steps in, you know, that ability for China to basically tap into western capital markets and just get as much money as they need…That’s going away.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“这会在多久时候发生?”

Simone: “So how do, how soon do you think it will happen? Because…Not soon enough… Okay.”

罗伯特·史帕丁将军(资深研究员/哈德逊研究所):“现在就应该发生。但是我还不知道。拖得越久,伤害越大,最终会伤害到美国人的退休账户。但是我们的问题是什么呢?我们明年就大选了。大选年什么都会很难。”

Robert Spalding: “You know, it needs to happen now. I mean…I don’t know…I don’t know. The longer we go, the more harm, eventually comes to Americans in their retirement funds. So…But again, what do we have? What’s the problem we have here? We have this, you know, election coming up. Everything’s hard in an election year.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“很有意思,非常感谢。”

Simone: “Yes. And it’s all right. Very, very interesting. Thank you so much. Thank you.”

========================================

Producer:Simone Gao

Writer:Simone Gao

Editors:Bonnie Yu, Sunny Yang,  Bin Tang

Narrator: Simone Gao

Transcription: Jim Battaglini

Translation: Chao Yu, Juan Li, Xiaofeng Zhang                 

Proofread: Linda Du

Subtitles: Bonnie Yu,  Bin Tang

Cameraman:York Du

Special Effects:Harrison Sun

Assistant producer:Bin Tang,    Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com

Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

 

New Tang Dynasty Television

Zooming In

July, 2019

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