【禁聞】再現大躍進 京滬高鐵上座率超百

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【新唐人2011年8月5日訊】鐵道部最近公布京滬高鐵第一個月的上座率為107%,網友廣泛質疑資料有假,因為人們看到京滬高鐵空座率很高。鐵道部隨後解釋說,這個資料是把中途上下旅客的數字重復疊加計算而來。專家指出這種計算方法有問題,認為這是「大躍進」式的笑話再現。

鐵道部網站發佈消息,京滬高鐵運營一個月以來,共行駛動車5542列,運送旅客526萬人,平均上座率107%。民眾大惑不解,因為和看到的情況相差甚遠。據一位7月26號乘坐高鐵的旅客反映說,二等座車廂裡最多不超過30%的上座率,一等座人更少,商務座只有3個座位有人。107%的數據從何而來?

而鐵道部隨後回應說,高鐵列車中途停站,旅客有上有下,席位可以重復使用,所以上座率超過100%並不一定超員。鐵道部的計算方法是,列車上座率等於購票上車的旅客人數除以列車定員。也就是對同一個座位,不同旅程的乘客進行疊加。

據《新京報》引述湖北省統計局副局長葉青的看法,鐵道部演算法有水分,不客觀。從經濟角度來講,107%的上座率聽上去挺唬人,但是實際上沒資料上那麼多人。葉青提出,科學的計算方法應該是,「有效上座率」等於「有效里程數」除以「座位里程數」。「有效里程數」指的是某座位有人乘坐時列車行駛的里程數;「座位里程數」指的是列車全程的里程數。

據中國日報引述北京交通大學鐵路專家趙堅的話說,美國「全國鐵路客運公司」(Amtrak)及大多數美國航空公司都是用“乘客里程”(乘客總里程乘以乘客使用的座位數)除以“座位里程”(里程數乘以總座位數)來計算上座率。這種方法和葉青的方法是一致的。

「中南大學」城市軌道交通研究所教授王成立指出,鐵道部這種計算方法屬於「中國特色」,可以和「畝產萬斤」的笑話相媲美。中共當局一貫喜歡吹牛皮,並且還要蒙上科學的面紗。

王成立:「中國的特色你應該知道。五八年『大躍進』就是那樣,畝產一萬斤,他畝產五萬斤,另外一個畝產二十萬斤,那怎麼統計出來的?還有國內著名大師都論證了,這是可行的。甚麼光合作用,能量守恆。中國的笑話太多了。不要信那些東西。」

原「長春軌道客車股份有限公司」工程質量管理工程師魏景翌表示,按照鐵道部這種演算法,外人永遠不可能知道高鐵真正的座位使用率是多少,這只能是愚弄老百姓的一種演算法。魏景翌認為,鐵道部想吹噓高鐵上座率高,但是他的做法慾蓋彌彰。

魏景翌:「極力的想證明上座率有多高。其實從反面證明應該是上座率不高。因為過去來講中國鐵路沒有人提這個指標。因為超員這種狀態是中國鐵路客車的常態。」

據《新京報》8月2號的實地調查,京滬高鐵G141次和G17次的檢票口進站人數,分別為640人和634人,而列車定員分別為1028人和1005人。用進站人數除以列車定員,可計算出G141和G17當天出發時的上座率為62%和63%。

新唐人記者秦雪、薛莉採訪報導。
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Railway Great Leap Forward

China』s Ministry of Railways announced that during
the first month operation of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail,
the seat occupancy rate was as high as 107%.
However, the public suspects the figure to be falsified.
Eyewitnesses say that the trains on Beijing-Shanghai line
were not filled.
The Ministry of Railways later explained that

the figure was calculated by accounting for passengers
getting on the trains midway.
Experts say that the calculation is flawed, and
this is another rail great leap forward.

According to The Ministry of Railways』 official website,
in the first month of the Beijing-Shanghai line』s operation,
There were a total of 5,542 train trips,
transporting 5.26 million passengers,
with an average seat occupancy rate of 107%.

The difference between the data and the reality
has left the public wondering.
As per a passenger, who took a high-speed train on July 26,
second-class cars had an occupancy rate of less than 30%.
The rate was even lower for first class cars.
There were only 3 passengers in the business-class cars.
Where did the 107% occupancy rate come from?

The Ministry of Railways responded later that
as trains make stops midway, passengers get on and off.
Thus, same seats can be used by more than one passenger.

Even if the occupancy is over 100%,
the train might not be full.
The calculation used by the Ministry is:

Seat occupancy equals to
the number of tickets sold divided by total number of seats.
The same seats are accounted for several times.

Beijing News quoted Hubei Province Statistics Bureau
Deputy Director Ye Qing that
The calculation used by the Ministry of Railways
is not objective and has flaws.
From an economic point of view,
a 107% occupancy rate sounds like an overstatement.
Ye Qing said that the correct calculation should be

Effective seat occupancy equals to
effective millage divided by seat millage.
Effective millage is the distance travelled
while the seats are occupied,
Seat millage is the total distance travelled by the train.

China Daily quoted Beijing Jiaotong University
railway expert Zhao Jian saying that
America』s Amtrak and most of American airline companies
divide passenger millage by seat millage to calculate occupancy.
This method is consistent with Ye Qing』s suggestion

Central South University Institute of Urban Rail Transit
professor Wang Chengli pointed out that
The Ministry』s calculation is a “Chinese characteristic,"
comparable to “an acre of land producing tons of crop."
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) enjoys exaggeration
with the appearance of being scientific.

Wang Chengli: You know the “Chinese characteristic",
similar to the stories of the Great Leap Forward in 1958,
such as one acre of land produced one ton of crops.
Some even claimed one acre could produce 20 tons.
How were they calculated?

Many renowned experts in China even proved it possible,
with explanation of photosynthesis and energy conservation.
This happens often with the CCP.
So, do not believe them.

Former Changchun Railway Vehicles Co., Ltd
Project Quality Management Engineer Wei Jingyi said that
according to the Ministry of Railways』 calculation,
the public will never know the real occupancy rate.
This is a way to fool the public.

Wei believes that the Ministry is trying to boast a high
occupancy rate, to no avail.

Wei Jingyi: they (Ministry of Railways) want
to prove a high occupancy rate.
However, they indirectly proved that the rate is low.

In the past, occupancy rate was never used,
because Chinese trains are always over-crowded.

According to a field survey done by Beijing News on Aug. 2,

the numbers of travelers on Beijing-Shanghai high speed trains
G141 and G17 were 640 and 634 respectively,
However, the train capacities were 1028 and 1005, respectively.

According to this data, the occupancy rates of G141 and G17
on Aug. 2 were 62% and 63% respectively.

NTD reporters Qin Xue and Xue Li.

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