【新唐人2012年7月5日訊】北京第11屆1次全會選出郭金龍擔任市委書記後，至此，歷時9個月的中共31個省級黨委換屆，已全部完成。中共最高權力層如何替換，尤其引人關注。有分析指出，「北戴河會議」即使如期完成，也解決不了中共的問題，它所面對的統治危機依然存在。
歷時9個多月的中共省級黨委換屆選舉，在7月3號這天畫上了句號。大陸31個省、自治區、直轄市中，遼寧省委率先在去年10月中旬進行了黨委換屆，而北京市委是最後一個，由郭金龍取代劉淇，擔任北京市委新書記。
時事評論員林子旭在接受《新唐人》採訪時表示，這次換屆的31個省市的一把手中，只有劉淇一人沒有連任，雖然可以把它解讀為是年齡的關係，但是這30比1的局面，確實讓劉淇及中共「血債幫」不堪。
林子旭：「其實劉淇下課也是個必然，遠的不說，就說今年王立軍事件發生以來，劉淇總是和周永康站在一起，行事處處和胡溫相左，讓這樣的人掌控京師重地，胡溫是絕對不會答應的，北京市的黨代會原定在5月份召開，這一拖就是兩個月，其中鬥爭的激烈可見一斑，胡溫也就是鐵了心要把劉淇拿掉。」
中共十八大之前的換屆選舉，一直備受外界矚目，反響強烈。時事評論員邢天行，分析了其中的原因。
時事評論員 邢天行：「最關鍵的是，在召開之前，大家都知道薄熙來和王立軍這件事情發生之後，高層內鬥的消息已經被世界關注了，而且江系也不斷的放風，也就是說實際上能不能正常的換屆，就在這個換屆選舉當中，外界都在關注，從這裡邊去品味一下，江系人馬還有胡錦濤這一派，哪一派是得勢的，因為它的內幕包的很緊，所以這是人們關注的一個熱點。」
而時事評論員任百鳴則表示，省級完成選舉，最關鍵的是「政法委書記不再兼任常委」。
時事評論員 任百鳴：「而是由省級常委的人，去兼任政法委，就是政法委書記不做為一個獨立的一個職位，在常委裡面占有一席之地了，這個職位被踢出常委了，大量的公安局局長，已經不兼任政法委了，他這樣一分權，把政法委的權力分開以後，政法委的權力就被削弱了。」
據了解，中共最高位置的任命，是在「北戴河會議」最終確定，而這次25名政治局委員中至少有15人是新面孔，其中兩人有可能在五年內，成為共產黨最高職位的有力競爭者。
時政評論家 橫河：「北戴河會議是一個比較關鍵的，就是按照中共自己圈子內部來說的話，北戴河會議是各派擺實力，然後分配位置的一個時機。」
日本《外交家》雜誌6月28號發表文章表示，中國大陸最高層的政治關係網在權力交接過程當中，只能產生一個脆弱的聯盟，通過談判和討價還價勾結在一起。關鍵的任命不是依賴個人才能，而是政治關係網和不同派系之間的妥協平衡。
橫河：「所以說，這是三層意思：第一個，這個省一級的換屆這個程序，他不可能去影響到中共十八大裡面大的佈局﹔第二，十八大之前的這個搶位置擺位置，能不能順利進行還是一個問題，即使能夠順利進行，他也解決不了中共自己內在的矛盾，和他面對的社會的矛盾，也就是說他的這個危機實際上影響到中共能不能生存的問題，十八大怎麼開也解決不了這個問題。」
邢天行認為，新一代的領導班子中，很多人都曾經執行過江澤民的迫害政策，包括郭金龍，雖然外界認為他是胡錦濤的親信，但是，他也執行了迫害法輪功的政策，所以在新的位置上，他們能不能真正的洗心革面，不再做這些壞事，人們將拭目以待。
採訪編輯常春 後製黎安安
Liu Qi Out of Provincial Party Committee Embarrasses Jiang Faction
After Beijing Municipal Party Congress elected
Guo Jinlong (mayor of Beijing)
Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Committee of
the Communist Party of China on Tuesday,
31 Provincial Party Committee general elections that
took place over the past 9 months have concluded.
Reshuffling of the high ranking CCP officials is
of particular concern.
It is suspected that even the upcoming Beidaihe meeting
will not solve the surviving crisis the CCP is facing.
The following is our report.
The 3rd July concluded the CCP Provincial Party
general election over the past 9 months.
Liaoning took the lead in mid-October last year,
Beijing Municipal the last, a total of 31 provinces,
autonomous regions and municipalities underwent
Provincial Party Committee general election.
Guo Jinlong, replacing Liu Qi, became the new
Secretary of the Beijing Municipal Committee.
Commentator Lin Zixu told NTD that Liu Qi is the only one
failed to be re-elected among the 31 provincial party committee elections.
Although it can be understood as this being an age issue,
the 30 to 1 ratio has indeed embarrassed both Liu Qi and the Bloody Debt Gang.
Lin Zixu: “In fact, Liu Qi’s dismissal was inevitable.
Despite the past and taking the recent Wang Lijun incident as an example,
Liu Qi stood by Zhou Yongkang and opposed Hu and Wen.
There is no way Hu and Wen would tolerate
such a person to control the capital.
The Beijing municipal congress was originally
scheduled in May, but delayed for two months.
The fierce struggle within the CCP is evident.
Hu and Wen were determined to remove Liu Qi."
The general election before the 18th National Congress
has drawn attention and caused intense responses.
Commentator Xing Tianxin explains why.
Commentator Xing Tianxin: “The issues are that after
Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun made news headlines,
the intense infighting was exposed, along with Jiang’s
faction purposely exposing information,
whether or not the power transfer will go smoothly
during the 18th National Congress,
people are trying to get a hint from the general election.
That’s the reason why the general election has become
a hot topic.
People want to know who has the power,
the Jiang faction or the Hu faction."
Commentator Ren Baiming, however,
believes the provincial elections signify one critical point;
that is “the Secretary of Politics and Law Commission (PLC)
will no longer serve the Politburo Standing Committee."
Commentator Ren Baiming: “Instead, the provincial
Standing Committee will serve as the Secretary of the PLC.
Therefore, the Secretary of PLC will no longer exist as
an independent post, and does not hold a seat on the Politburo Standing Committee.
Many Public Security Bureau Chiefs will no longer
concurrently hold positions on the Politics and Law Committee.
This separation of power from the Politics and
Law Committee weakens the power of the PLC.”
It is understood that the CCP leadership
will be finalized in the Beidaihe meeting.
Among the 25 Politburo members,
at least 15 of them are new faces,
and two of them may become strong competitors
for CCP leadership in five years time.
Political critic Heng He: “The Beidaihe meeting is the key.
Historically, the Beidaihe meeting is when the power
allocation among factions of the CCP circle will take place."
The Diplomat magazine published an article on 28th June
and stated,
“Political patronage at the top in the leadership transition
process can only produce a fragile coalition,
cobbled together through bargaining and horse-trading.
Key appointments are made not based on
individual competence or proven record,
but on personal loyalty and considerations of
how such appointments can help balance the distribution of power among factions."
Heng He: “It imposes three meanings:
firstly, the provincial level election will not affect
the layout of the 18th National Congress;
secondly, fighting for a seat prior to the
18th National Congress is still questionable;
and thirdly, even if it goes smoothly, the conflict within
the CCP and in society will not get resolved.
The crisis the CCP is facing concerns its survival and
the 18th National Congress will not resolve it."
Xing Tianxin comments that in the new generation of
leadership team,
many of them have executed Jiang Zemin’s persecution policy,
including Guo Jinlong.
Although considered an ally of Hu Jintao, Guo Jinlong
has also implemented the policy to persecute Falun Gong.
At the new post, it is yet to be seen whether or not they will
turn over a new leaf and quit committing the crime.
