【新唐人2012年7月25日訊】7月23號，大陸中共政治局九常委全數出席了「省部級主要領導幹部專題研討班」開班儀式，國家主席胡錦濤在儀式上發表了「重要講話」，罕見的，他談到了政治體制改革，同時，他還強調，來自外部的風險前所未有，黨的建設方面特別是黨員、幹部隊伍，出現了許多亟待解決的突出問題。下面請看專家的分析解讀。
據大陸媒體報導，胡錦濤這篇講話涵蓋了政治、經濟、民生、文化、黨建設各個方面。
談到政治體制改革時，胡錦濤表示，必須堅持「黨的領導、人民當家作主、依法治國」三者結合。胡錦濤說，未來要「更加自覺、更加堅定」推進改革開放，不斷在「制度建設和創新方面邁出新步伐」。
美國「南加州大學」公共政策博士葉科表示，胡錦濤強調堅持政治體制改革必須堅持黨的領導，這跟堅持中共獨裁沒有甚麼差別，在此基礎上，胡錦濤所談的政治體制改革非常空洞，也有局限性。
美國「南加州大學」公共政策博士葉科：「他為甚麼要提政改，就是因為共產體制…說實在話，現在已經走到絕路上了，胡錦濤這點我想他不會不清楚。」
此外，胡錦濤還談到，現時中共所處的歷史方位和執政條件、黨員隊伍組成結構，都發生重大變化，「來自外部的風險前所未有，黨的建設方面特別是黨員、幹部隊伍出現了許多亟待解決的突出問題」。
時事評論員林子旭認為，在這個問題上，胡錦濤說了大實話。
時事評論員林子旭：「中共行將就木，中共內部的很多官員都在盤算著給自己留後路，很多新加入進來的黨員也是抱著自己不同的利益而來。今天中共黨員更多想的就是，如何逃離這個黨或是如何利用這個黨。」
葉科表示，共產黨確實出現了許多亟待解決的突出問題。
葉科：「共產黨當年是靠著共產主義這個大旗，這個招牌，不管它用甚麼辦法，把人騙來了也好，拉攏來了也好，就是它這樣組織起來了，那麼今天，共產主義，你去問所有的共產黨員，基本上共產主義就成了一個笑話。這個招牌不僅沒法吸引人，而且成了一個笑談。」
也有分析認為，胡錦濤在中共十八大前再三強調改革開放，意味著大搞意識形態、強勢政府的「重慶模式」已經徹底破產，而提出要「集中統一」，則是要將內部的分化和爭議整合起來。
時事評論員林子旭：「目前中國大陸民怨沸騰，人們通過各種渠道了解的信息越來越多，對自己應該享有何種權益越來越清楚，對中共的這種恐懼感，也在日漸消失，相反中共的統治基礎則越來越虛弱。如果中共依然按照以往慣用的統治手段，去針對民眾的各種訴求的話，那中共的統治必然朝不保夕。」
另外，葉科指出，整個國際社會，對共產主義的思潮的反思，和去共產主義化的浪潮，再加上現在很多明智的老百姓，已經認清了共產黨的本質。
葉科：「共產黨本身內部正在出現這樣的分化，基本上是群中無首，這樣一個狀態，諸侯割據，所以在這種情況下，共產黨自己也管不住自己了，管老百姓，老百姓也是怨聲載道，在這種情況下，共產黨統治就面臨全面的危機。」
葉科認為，在歷史自由化的浪潮之下，如果共產黨再繼續堅持所謂的共產黨領導，繼續走過去專制道路，繼續對老百姓的迫害政策，壓制政策，未來對中共高層是一個嚴峻的考驗。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/薛莉
Hu Jintao Talks Political Reform and of Unprecedented Outside Risks
On July 23, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)’s 9 members
of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau
all attended the opening ceremony of “The Seminar
for Provincial or Ministry level cadres”.
Head of the CCP Hu Jintao gave an “important speech"
at the ceremony, he mentioned political reform that he hardly said in the past.
Meanwhile, Hu stresses that there are unprecedented risks
from the outside world, with many significant problems having showed up within the Party building,
especially among Party members and the cadre team.
Here’s the experts’ analysis.
China’s media says, Hu Jintao’s latest speech
covered many fields like politics, economy,
the people’s livelihood, and the Party building.
When talking about political reform, Hu Jintao said that
the three elements—“Party leadership, the people being the
masters, and the rule of law”—must be adhered to.
Hu also said, reform and opening should be further promoted
“more actively and firmly” and
“new steps in institutional reforms and innovations”
should be continuously taken.
Dr. Ye Ke of the University of South California(U.S.)’s
Public Policy department says,
Hu reiterated that the Party leadership is in political reform,
which means adhering to the CCP’s autocracy.
Based on that, Hu Jintao’s speech about political reform was
very empty and limited.
[Dr Ye Ke, Public Policy, South California University (U.S.)]:
“The reason Hu mentioned political reform is because
the CCP regime has actually come to a dead end—I believe
Hu Jintao is also aware of it.”
Hu Jintao also mentioned that the CCP’s historical position,
its governing situation, and its structure of Party members
have experienced profound changes.
Hu Jintao stated “There are unprecedented risks
from the outside world, with many significant problems
having showed up within the Party building,
especially among Party members and the cadre team.”
Lin Zixu, current affairs commentator,
says Hu Jintao was telling the truth on this issue.
[Lin Zixu, Current Affairs Commentator]: “The CCP regime
is about to end, and many high officials within the Party are seeking a way out,
while many new members are joining
for their own interests.
Today, what CCP members think about the most is
how to escape the Party or how to exploit it.”
Ye Ke says the CCP does have many significant
problems which need to be solved immediately.
[Dr Ye Ke, USC]: “In the past, the CCP took power
under the banner and brand of communism—
whether by tricking or wheedling, they formed this team.
But today, if you go ask CCP members about communism,
you will see that it has become a big joke—
people are not attracted by it but are making fun of it.”
Some analysts believe that Hu Jintao’s reiteration of reform
and opening up, before the 18th Congress, indicates that
“the Chongqing Mode” of advocating ideology and power-
politics, has gone completely bankrupt.
Hu also talked about “centralism and unity”,
which is to unite the different forces within the Party.
[Lin Zixu “Currently, there is seething discontent in China
and people are getting more information through all kinds of channels,
so they are more aware of their rights and
fear of the CCP is disappearing.
On the contrary, the CCP’s foundation is weakening;
if the CCP tackles people’s appeals in its usual political ways,
then the CCP regime is doomed to end soon.”
Ye Ke also points out that the whole world is reconsidering
communism, creating awave of getting rid of it.
Many wise people have realized the true nature of
the Communist Party.
[Dr Ye Ke]: “The Party itself is splitting, without a leader,
and has formed many factions within the Party.
Under such circumstances, the CCP cannot even
control itself and is facing seething discontent
when trying to control the general public—therefore,
CCP is facing a general crisis.”
Ye Ke believes that in the historical tendency of liberalization,
if the CCP adheres to the so-called Party leadership and keeps
up the persecution and suppression of its own people,
its high-level authorities will face severe challenges
in the future.
