【新唐人2012年10月27日訊】「英國倫敦經濟學院」教授文安立(Odd ArneWestad)，10月18號在《彭博社》(Bloomberg)發表一篇探討中國和東盟(ASEAN)關係的評論，他提到，自鄧小平以來的30年，中國持續對東南亞國家所謂的「示好」。但是兩年前，中國和東盟的關係急轉直下。文安立認為，這是中國的 「天朝」心態作祟。中國學者指出，鄧小平過去所說的韜光養晦，其實是等待時機。中共作為一個獨裁政權，一旦國力強大，稱霸的心態就避免不了。
Expert Attributes Tightening of China-ASEAN Relations to
CCP’s Extravagant Self-Consciousness
Odd Arne Westad, professor of London School of Economics
and Political Science, published an article about China-ASEAN relations on Bloomberg News on October 18th.
The article wrote that, although China had kept a friendly
attitude toward Southeast Asian countries for 30 years since the Deng Xiaoping era,
relations between China and ASEAN suddenly worsened
two years ago.
Odd Arne Westad attributed this change to
the CCP’s “consciousness of its growing power”.
Some Chinese scholars remarked that, the CCP kept a low profile
in the past in order to wait for better opportunities.
As a dictatorship, the CCP cannot help seeking hegemony
once its national power grows larger.
Professor of London School of Economics and Political Science
Odd Arne Westad recently made comments that,
until two years ago China had kept up good relations with
Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam.
However, the situation changed abruptly in 2010 at the
ASEAN Regional Forum,
where CCP’s Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi lost his temper
and flared up against U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The cause of Yang’s anger was that, Vietnam, Malaysia,
Philippines and Brunei which all have territorial disputes with China,
had worked out a multilateral negotiation mechanism under
the support of the United States, the European Union and Indonesia.
This deviated from the CCP’s preferred way of solving
dispute issues based on one-to-one negotiations.
Odd Arne Westad remarked that, the Chinese had an
improper view that saw the situation in terms of: “We are a large nation and you are only small ones”.
In history, China became the central state of the region
with dominating power and received tributes from affiliated countries since the Sui Dynasty.
At that time, China was the political, economical and cultural
center of the world, and was hence called the “Celestial Empire”.
Odd Arne Westad believes that the CCP still keeps a
self-awareness as the “Celestial Empire” in dealing with East Asian affairs.
Therefore it regards itself as the most important nation of
the region with the authority to spread its opinions around the neighborhood.
Beijing freelancer Yin Deyi remarked that, the Chinese have
a traditional trend of easily inflating their egos.
However, as China and Southeast Asian countries
have been at peace for a long time,
why did the outbreak of clashes suddenly become
more frequent in recent years?
(Yin Deyi, Beijing freelancer):”Previously all the disputed
issues were simply laid aside because the CCP wanted to reconsider the problems when its power became stronger.
Now the CCP’s power has grown a lot
so it can have more options to win the game.
For example, it can provide loans, play checkbook diplomacy,
or set restrictions for import and export to strike at its opponents.
Those measures have been taken against Japan.”
Yin Deyi said that the CCP regime could easily
arouse nationalistic emotions in China;
and that Southeast Asian countries had recently
felt a real threat from the CCP regime.
(Yin Deyi):”As a Communist nation China’s political regime
is autocratic rather than democratic.
So it is much easier for those people (CCP leaders)
to control the sentiments of it’s citizens.
In such an environment, millions, or even billions of people
follow whatever the leaders say.
With numerous restrictions against freedom of information,
It is difficult for the leaders to know conditions at lower levels of society.
Therefore they can easily have illusions with
the power they have at hand.”
Yin Deyi believes that, it is inevitable that neighboring
countries will come into conflict with the CCP regime.
The later those clashes come, the more serious
the conflict will be.
(Yin Deyi):”With the relatively smooth development
the CCP won’t realize its problems if it further enjoys
a friendly international environment.
For example, 80% of China’s oil import has to pass
through the Strait of Malacca.
However, the United States has military bases
in all the countries near the strait.
If relations between China and those countries
continue to worsen,
the CCP will find its vital passage of transport
under the control of others.”
Odd Arne Westad has suggested that China should handle
disputes in the South China Sea in a less aggressive way.
It should negotiate with other countries to deal with concrete
matters such as sea area division.
In addition, trust mechanisms and preventative measures
against conflicts should be established to reduce the possibility of military action in the region.
If this becomes true, clashes will gradually disappear and
China can prosper together with Southeast Asian countries.