【禁聞】國民儲蓄率高 阻礙中國經濟增長?

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【新唐人2012年11月22日訊】中國的國民儲蓄率已經超過50%,卻被認為是導致國內消費動力不足的原因之一。並有所謂專家說,要讓國民敢於消費、主動消費,來加速中國經濟走出低谷,推動經濟轉型。可是,經濟學者表示,中國所謂的經濟改革成果,都被中共特權利益集團搶去了,要想推動經濟轉型,不是從國民開始,應該從中共特權階層開始。

11月21號,《人民網》刊文指出,中國面臨國際金融危機和調整經濟結構的雙重挑戰,「提振內需、擴大消費」已成為促進經濟轉型的重要手段。

報導引用國際貨幣基金組織的數據說,90年代初,中國居民儲蓄佔國民生產總值的35%以上,到2005年中國儲蓄率高達51%,而全球平均儲蓄率僅為19.7%。2009年,中國居民儲蓄率52%,儲蓄餘額突破了18萬億元,儲蓄率在全世界排名第一,人均儲蓄超過1萬元。

不過,中國國民儲蓄率攀升的同時,消費意願卻在減弱。去年(2011年)初,央行公布的儲戶問卷調查報告顯示,高達85.8%的城鎮居民傾向於儲蓄,只有14.2%的居民傾向於更多消費。

大陸律師李天天指出,大多數人傾向於存款,只能說明國民福利太低,人人都沒有安全感,很多人一輩子省吃儉用都買不起一套房子。

大陸律師 李天天:「物價這麼高,房子這麼貴,他沒有養老保障,他一輩子的錢都不敢花,他都要存著,像老年人他有錢他哪兒敢花啊,醫療沒有保障,養老沒有保障,還有很多東西都沒有保障,血汗錢,保命錢,誰敢消費啊。」

報導還引用中共國務院發展研究中心研究員吳敬璉的分析指出,國民過度儲蓄和消費不足這種不平衡,阻礙了中國的經濟增長。而專家說,應當逐步降低當前過高的儲蓄率,讓國民敢於消費、主動消費,從而加速中國經濟走出低谷,推動經濟轉型。

不過,美國「南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田指出,中國所謂的經濟改革成果,已經被中共特權利益集團全部搶走,一般民眾消費不起。

美「南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院」教授 謝田:「這些專家基本上在昧著良心說話,希望民眾敢於消費,主動消費,你如果也是一般人的工資水平,看到房價這麼高,還有醫療保險,教育這些費用,你敢不敢消費?他也不敢消費,除非他站在利益集團這一階層或者從中得到了好處,才敢這麼胡說八道。」

謝田指出,華人有節儉的習慣,亞洲國家的儲蓄率明顯高於西方國家,但,中國儲蓄率竟然高達52%,完全是中共畸形的政策導致的惡果。

謝田:「為甚麼中國百姓要存那麼多錢呢,是因為他們害怕,他們對未來強烈的不確定感,不知道未來會怎麼樣,是因為中國通貨膨脹這麼嚴重,老百姓不得不儲蓄來購買房子,或者來準備教育,醫療,退休的那些龐大的資金需求。」

謝田進一步指出,想加速中國經濟走出低谷,推動經濟轉型的話,不是從國民開始,應該從中共當局開始。

謝田:「首先中國政府應該想辦法把資金回籠,把中國通貨膨脹降下來,第二,中共那些貪官他們掘去的財富應該吐出來,返回到中國民眾老姓手裡,這樣民眾就會有錢了,中國現在的問題是國富民窮,財富都被國家拿走了,被國家拿走實際上就是被中共的特權階層拿走了。」

8月底,中共國務院經濟學者李佐軍指出,2013年前後,中國可能要爆發一場經濟危機,同時將引發社會問題,目前積聚下來的多種社會矛盾激化或爆發,是山雨慾來的前兆。

採訪編輯/李韻 後製/王明宇

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High Savings Rate Hinder Economics?

China’s national savings rate has exceeded 50%, but was
considered to be one of the reasons for underpowered domestic consumption.
Some so-called experts said, making people dare to consume

and consume actively could accelerate progress out of
an economic recession and promote economic restructuring.
However, economists said that the so-called economic reform
results in China, were all looted away by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) privileged interest groups.
To promote economic restructuring, it should not start from
the citizens, but the CCP privileged class.

On 21st November, People’s Daily published
an article pointing out that
China is facing the dual challenges of the international
financial crisis and the adjustment of economic structure,
boosting domestic demand and expanding consumption have
become important means to promote economic restructuring.

The report referred data from the International
Monetary Fund, saying in the early 1990s,
China’s household savings accounted for more than 35%
of the gross domestic product.
In 2005, the Chinese savings rate was up to 51%,
while the global average savings rate was only 19.7%.
In 2009, China’s household savings rate was 52%,
and the savings balance exceeded 18 trillion Yen;
the savings rate ranked first in the world,
and per capita savings was more than 10,000 Yen.

However, while China’s national savings rate climbed,
consumers』 willingness to spend is on the wane.
In early 2011, the central bank published
a depositors survey report,
which showed that up to 85.8% of urban residents
tended to save and only 14.2% tended to spend more.

Lawyer Li Tiantian in China pointed out most people tend to
save money, which only shows that national welfare is too low,
people feel insecure in life, and a lot of people could even
afford a house though they live frugally for a lifetime.

Li Tiantian: “The prices are so high, and houses are so
expensive, the CCP does not offer a pension guarantee,
so people dare not spend their money,
even if saving for a lifetime.
For the seniors, how dare they spend money?
There is no government aid medical insurance,
no guaranteed pension, so many things have no guarantee.
So how can people spend the money they earned?”

The report also cited the analysis of Wu Jinglian from the
PRC’s State Council Development Research Center, and
pointed out the imbalance of excessive national savings
and lack of consumption hinder China’s economic growth.
Experts say, it should gradually reduce the high savings rate,
allow and encourage people to spend and actively consume,
thus speeding up China』s turn-around out of economic
recession, and promoting economic restructuring.

However, Professor Xie Tian from the Business School at the
University of South Carolina-Aiken pointed out that the
results of the so-called economic reforms in China have been
all looted away by the CCP privileged interest groups, so the public cannot afford to consume.

Professor Xie Tian: “basically, these experts are speaking
unconscionably, hoping that the people dare consume and actively spend.
If you are also at the average person’s wage level,
seeing that house prices are so high,
plus medical insurance and education costs,
would you consume?
No. He must be standing for the interest group or be gaining
some benefits from them, allowing him to speak nonsense.”

Xie Tian said that the Chinese have frugal habits, and the
savings rate in Asian countries was significantly higher than those in the West.
But China’s savings rate is as high as 52%,
which is completely the result of malformed CCP policy making.

Xie Tian: “Why do Chinese people want to save
so much money?
Because they are afraid, they have a strong sense of
uncertainty about their future.
They do not know what their future will be like.

Inflation in China is so serious, so people had
to save for a house, or to prepare for education, health care, and retirement.”

Additionally, Xie Tian, pointed out that to accelerate
China’s turn-around out of economic recession and
to promote economic restructuring, it should not start
from the citizens, but should begin with the Communist authorities.

Xie Tian: “Firstly, the Chinese government should think of
ways for the capital return to knock down inflation in China.
Secondly, the corrupted CCP officials should return
the money they steal from the Chinese people.
Then the Chinese would have money to spend.
Now China is rich but the people are poor.
The treasures were taken away by the country,
or actually by the CCP privileged class.”

At the end of August, the PRC State Council economist,
Li Zuojun said, in around the year 2013,
China may have an outbreak of an economic crisis,
which will lead to social problems.
The outbreak of current accumulated social conflicts is
a precursor of an imminent storm.

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