【禁聞】經濟出奇蹟 李克強何必斷腕?

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【新唐人2013年09月14日訊】在中國錢荒驚魂未定,外資撤離風起雲湧,全球一片中國經濟「硬著陸」聲浪的大背景下,中共國務院總理李克強在出席「2013夏季達沃斯論壇」時表示,「中國經濟發展的奇蹟已經進入第二季」,中共海內外喉舌競相報導李克強的談話。不過,李克強前幾天悲壯的說過,中共當局會用「壯士斷腕的決心」推進改革。評論質疑,既然中國經濟出現奇蹟,李克強何必壯士斷腕?外界認為,這種完全和現實背離的論調,已經無法挽回已經撤離的外企,也無法提供中共執政的合法性。

9月12號,中共喉舌《新華社》、《環球時報》、《央視國際》等大小媒體,同時刊出「中國經濟發展的奇蹟已經進入第二季」的相關文章。文章中說,一段時間以來,國際上對中國經濟有不少議論,擔心會不會出現一些國家曾遇到的「增長過早放緩」,甚至出現「硬著陸」。

李克強在「達沃斯論壇」上說,選擇中國,是跨國企業興旺發達的明智之舉。他表示,會用壯士斷腕的決心推進改革,做到言必行,行必果。

美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田:「現在講這個話確實讓人感覺非常的荒唐,你如果一切都好好的幹嘛要斷腕,我們所有的人都知道中國經濟陷入困境,外資已經瘋狂地撤出中國,由房地產和基礎建設支撐的經濟,現在根本就難以為繼。」

美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田認為,首先應該澄清的是,中國前面所謂的經濟奇蹟,實際上是災難。謝田說,在低效率的、浪費性的、以犧牲環境為代價帶來的虛假GDP,已經給中國帶來了巨大的傷害,同時權貴們從中竊取大量財富後,給中國社會帶來的難以解決的社會亂象,正在毀滅中國的道德底線。

紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明:「中共政府是想給大家鼓氣,不要讓國內的老百姓產生恐慌,因為恐慌往往會成為經濟危機大爆發的一個根源,所以當中國經濟在逐漸放緩的時候,它不願意說它的經濟在放慢,它只是說它在換檔期,是為了新的一輪的發展在進行調試。」

紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明指出,前30年,中國人民的生活雖然得到了改善,但經濟成果實際上最後落入了中共領導集團的私人腰包中。

夏明:「中共政府現在面臨著很大的一個危機和挑戰,其中很大的危機和挑戰是甚麼呢﹖它過去是想用它的經濟成長業績,來為它的政權合法性提供一種論證,但是現在經濟一方面在放緩,第二方面,中國的貧富差距拉大了。」

美國《華爾街日報》評論說,當年全球金融危機時,中國(中共)政府大量放貸,使中國的經濟很快得到緩解,建立了大量的酒店、樓房、鐵路和橋樑,使得中國實現了經濟增長。現在5年過去了,美國和歐洲的經濟已經在復甦,而中國以及亞洲經濟卻前途暗淡,如果投資者當時選擇投資歐美,會收益豐厚。

最近在北京召開的第十二屆全國人大常委會第四次會議上,當局承認,中國經濟面臨四大泡沫—-產能過剩泡沫、房地產泡沫、政府債務泡沫、金融泡沫。

人大財經委副主任尹中卿警告,不能輕易戳穿泡沫,只能千方百計擠壓泡沫。

另外,由28.78平方公里的試驗田組成的「上海自由貿易區」,將在9月29號提前掛牌,

謝田認為,上海自由貿易區,除了給新任領導人留下業績外,新聞效應大於實際效應,但是其中的人民幣自由兌換、資金自由流通,卻可能為貪官們轉移資金大放綠燈。

謝田:「如果在上海實行人民幣可以(自由)兌換的話,我們可以想像,會存在匯率的雙軌制,會使得一些中共官員有極大的尋租、貪污和腐敗的機會,如果這個兌換溢到自貿區之外的話,可能會引發房地產泡沫的破滅。」

北京觀察人士華頗指出,中國的經濟非常糟糕,既得利益集團的癌細胞已經擴散到整個體制的全身,李克強斷腕也無濟於事。

採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/李智遠

Communist Media Praised Its Economic Miracle

In China, money shortage hasn』t been settled,
foreign companies shut down one after another,
speculation of China』s economy hard landing
spread over the world widely.
Premier Li Keqiang said during the 2013 Summer Davos Forum,
that China has entered a second season of its miracle.
The Chinese Communist Party』s (CCP) media
at home and abroad published Li』s remarks.
However, Li Keqiang said solemnly in
that China will continue economic reform with great
determination, needs to “cut loss quickly”.

Commentators speculated that if China economy
is super good, does it need to cut loss quickly?
Outsiders believe that Li』s remarks
completely deviate from reality,
however, it can』t stop foreign companies from leaving China
neither can Chinese regime be qualified as being legitimate.

On 12th Sept., Xinhua news, Global Times and
China』s Central TV published the same article at
the same time about “China』s Economy Miracle Development
Entered Second Season”.
The article said that for some time now, there have been
many comments on the Chinese economy,
they wondered whether it may slow down too early, like
in some other countries, or even encounter a hard landing.

Li Keqiang said in the Davos Forum that to come and do
business in China is a wise decision
for multinationals to grow their business.

China will continue its reform with determination of
cutting loss quickly.
China will stand by its words and will be resolute in action.

Xie Tian, Professor at the University of South Carolina
Aiken Business School: At this moment in time,
to speak such words is ridiculous.

If everything went well, would you need to cut loss quickly?

We all know that the Chinese economy has run into trouble,
some foreign companies ceased trading in China.
Supporting the economy by real estate and infrastructure
now is unsustainable.

Xie Tian says, the first thing to clarify is that the previous
economic miracle actually is a series of disasters.
Inefficiency and wastefulness by sacrificing the environment
to achieve fake a GDP, had brought the country tremendous damage.
On the one hand privileged groups seized great wealth from it.

This has resulted in an irresolvable chaotic society,
and is destroying China』s bottom line of morality.

Xia Ming, professor in politics of City University
of New York: the Chinese regime wants
to give the public confidence.

They don』t want people to panic.

People panic can turn into the fundamental reason
of an economic crisis.
Thus, when the Chinese economy slows down, the CCP is
unwilling to say so, instead saying it is in a transformation
period, just testing for new development.

Xia Ming says that, 30 years ago, Chinese people』s lives had
improved, but economic gains fell into leadership』s pockets.

Xia Ming: the Chinese regime is facing a great crisis
and challenges.
What is it?

In the past, the CCP always wanted economic growth
in order to support its legitimacy.
However, on the contrary, now the economy is slowing down,
and the gap between the rich and poor has widened.

Wall Street Journal said that during the early global
financial crisis, the Chinese regime directed its state-owned
banks to open up their credit,
its economy was quickly back to growth.
In addition numbers of hotels, housing, railways
and bridges were built up, the economy increased.
In the past five years, the US and European economies
have been recovering,
China and Asia economies』 future are dismal.

If investors bet on Europe and the US then that
would have been a better choice.

Recently, the fourth session of the 12th session (NPC)
Standing Committee was held in Beijing.
The authorities admitted four big economic bubbles in
overcapacity, real estate, government debt and finances.

Yin Zhongqing, deputy director of the Finance and
Economics Commission warned that, rather than puncturing
the bubble, we can only do everything possible to squeeze it.

In addition, “Shanghai Free Trade Zone" which is composed
of 28.78 square kilometers of an experimental plot
will be listed in advance on 29th September.

Xie Tian believes that in addition to show new leaders』
good performance, Shanghai Free Trade Zone has a
greater influence in news sensationalism than actuality.

However, the free convertible RMB and free capital flow may
set the green light for corrupt officials to transfer funds.

Xie Tian: a free convertible RMB may bring the duel system
in exchanging rates and increase rent-seeking, and
corruption within the CCP officials;

it may result in the real estate bubble bursting if the RMB
convertible happens outside the Free Trade Area.

Beijing observer Hua Po pointed out that
China’s economy is very bad,
interests group is more like a cancer that has spread
all over the entire system;
even if Li Keqiang could cut loss quickly,
it would be to no avail.

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