【禁聞】華爾街日報:中共經濟防火牆失靈

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【新唐人2014年02月10日訊】由於中共實行人民幣浮動和緊盯美元的匯率制度,並拒絕開放資本項目,外界普遍認為,這構築了抵擋資本外流的防火牆。但隨著利用人民幣進行套利交易的熱錢越來越多的湧入中國,證明中共這道經濟防火牆失靈,同時還暴露了中共經濟的其他弱點。下面請看報導。

美國《華爾街日報》2月6號發表文章認為,中共封閉的金融系統,目地是用來防範短期外國資本的,可實際上利用人民幣進行套利交易的熱錢,越來越多的湧入中國,中共嚴控貨幣的政策沒有起到有效作用。

香港銀行業根據對中國大陸銀行的求償權,估計出這些短期外國資本為2萬3000億港元(約合2,950億美元),比2012年年底增加53%。

大陸金融分析師任中道:「錢荒的原因導致有套利的機會,銀行之間的互相拆借很高,甚至達到5也好,6也好。美聯儲維持利率在0.2到0.25,這中間就產生了很大的利差。」

大陸金融分析師任中道表示,熱錢的湧入是因為有利可圖,但這加大了中國的金融泡沫,特別是把樓市的泡沫吹得更大。

最近的資料顯示,去年12月份,北京等一線中國城市的房價同比上漲了20%。

華爾街日報》指出,隨著利用人民幣進行套利的熱錢越來越多的湧入中國,中共經濟的其他弱點也暴露出來:與充滿泡沫的房地產市場相連的外匯政策似乎也十分脆弱﹔中國的物價水準使百姓仍然買不起房,製造業缺乏競爭力,而且還使消費支出轉移到了海外。

去年12月份,中國出口增速已經降到4%,這是因為人民幣升值後生產成本也相應提高。如,近來的報告顯示,在天津生產空中客車(Airbus) A320飛機的成本,比在法國圖盧茲(Toulouse)的成本還要高出10%。

事實上,今年中國1月份的國內服務業,增幅也降到最近五年的最低點。

《華爾街日報》的文章還表示,由於中國多年來高通脹並且稅負名目繁多,中國人似乎樂意用海外消費取代國內消費。

統計資料顯示,早在2012年,中國遊客境外消費總額達1020億美元。在2013年聖誕和2014年新年,中國消費者在英國的平均單筆交易,不少於1400英鎊,為了搶到心儀的商品,許多消費者甚至要在寒風中等待將近10個小時。香港在中國新年期間,接待遊客800萬人次,澳門270萬人次,其中多是中國內地遊客。

《華爾街日報》指出,這其中會有多少人是因為人民幣高估而到香港「血拼」呢?所以,一旦人民幣匯率變動體現出中國國際收支狀況的惡化時,預計人民幣幣值就會驟然成為關注焦點。

美國南卡羅來納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田表示,中共通過「限制國際匯兌」、「操控匯率」、和「限制進出口」這三個辦法,造成人民幣對內和對外存在兩個價格體系。

任中道認為,中國產品出口賺取外匯後,中共「央行」就在國內發行相應數量人民幣,是造成人民幣兩個價格體系的根本原因。

任中道:「它多發了28萬億人民幣投入到市場當中,它注定會導致內貶貶的很厲害。」

美國南卡羅來納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田:「外升內貶的現象,使得中國的老百姓得不到人民幣升值帶來的好處,反而還要繼續承受國內人民幣貶值和通貨膨脹帶來的惡果。實際上就是老百姓的財富就是被政府劫持過去了。」

謝田指出,這也是中共既得利益集團、和特權階層的利益所在。

《華爾街日報》的結論是,中國的物價將不可避免的在某一階段經歷重大調整。但問題是,調整的形式究竟是人民幣匯率變動,還是國內出現嚴重通縮?

採訪/易如 編輯/宋風 後製/蕭宇

Wall Street Journal: Chinese Regimes Currency Firewall Failing

China’s crawling peg currency to the US Dollar, and it’s
closed capital account, is believed to have been created
to provide a line of defense to reversals in capital flows.

However, this artificially constructed currency
firewall has revealed it’s fragility as a destination for
“hot money” playing the yuan currency carry trade.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) released an
article analyzing China’s closed financial system.
It considers that it was designed to
guard against short-term foreign capital.

However, China’s renewed popularity as a destination
for “hot money” is playing the yuan currency carry trade,
and has exposed its vulnerabilities and lack of effectiveness.

The WSJ reported that, according to claims, Hong Kong
banks have on mainland counterparts give an approximation
of the size of these yield-seeking structured products.

As of October, those claims were a record HK$2.3 trillion
($295 billion), up 53% since the end of 2012.

Ren Zhongdao, Financial Analyst: “Money shortages
create the opportunity for currency carry trade.
Inter-bank lending rates are high, at 5 or 6%, while the
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at 0.2 to 0.25.

This creates a huge difference in interest rates.”

Financial analyst Ren Zhongdao
explains that hot money pursues profit.
This is at the cost of creating financial bubbles
in China, especially that of a property bubble.

Recent data in December last year showed
that property prices in Beijing and other Chinese
cities had grown 20% year on year, reported WSJ.

There are other vulnerabilities too, exposed by
China’s renewed popularity as a destination for
“hot money” playing the yuan currency carry trade.

At the moment, China’s currency policy twinned with
its bubbly property market appears highly fragile.
You have an economy where prices are
now not just making property unaffordable.
They are making manufacturing uncompetitive and
diverting retail spending overseas, reported the WSJ.

China’s export sector already slowed
to a 4% growth in December.
This was because of high production
costs as the yuan appreciated.

The WSJ said that recent reports suggested
it now costs 10% more to produce the Airbus
A320 in Tianjing than it does in Toulouse.

In January, China’s services-sector
growth has slumped to a five-year low.

WSJ also reported that Chinese are substituting
domestic spending for that overseas.
This comes after years of inflation
and assorted domestic taxes in China.

Statistics show that China’s expenditure on
overseas travel reached US$102 billion in 2012.
Around Christmas 2013, and New Year 2014, the
average Chinese consumer spent £1,400 per transaction.
Many Chinese consumers would wait in the bitter
cold for 10 hours, to grab their favorite products.
During the week-long Chinese New Year holiday,
Hong Kong received more than 8 million tourists.
Macau more than 2.7 million people, many
of whom are mainland Chinese tourists.

WSJ questioned how much of this travel is shopping
arbitrage simply due to an overvalued currency.

It is therefore expected that the level of the yuan will
come sharply into focus, when it starts to show up
in deterioration in China’s balance of payments.

Professor Xie Tian, School of Business, University
of South Carolina Aiken, indicates that the regime
has created a dual RMB pricing systems.

One is the domestic system, and
the other is the international system.
It is based on its restriction measures on international
exchange rates, currency rates, as well as import & export.

Ren Zhongdao analyzes the dual RMB pricing systems
was created because China Central Bank issues relevant
RMB cashes according to the earnings of Chinese exports.

Ren Zhongdao: “An extra 28 trillion yuan into the market
is destined to lead to serious devaluation domestically.”

Professor Xie Tian: “Appreciation internationally
coupled with depreciation domestically only leads
to negative consequences with Chinese inflation.

It is, in fact, the government hijacking people’s wealth.”

Professor Xie indicates that this profit is exactly
what those with vested interests, as well as those
privileged in the regime, have always relied on.

WSJ concludes that, at some stage, it looks inevitable
that prices in China will need a big adjustment.
The question is whether it will come through the
exchange rate or from sharp domestic deflation.

Interview /Yiru Edit/Songfeng Post-Production/Xiaoyu

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