【新唐人2014年06月16日訊】6月12號，中共國家外匯管理局宣佈，中國外匯儲備基本上達到了4萬億美元。這一消息，再次引發了媒體和經濟學家批評中共囤積的外匯，不但沒有給中國帶來好處，反而導致大量印製鈔票對沖，而引發通貨膨脹等諸多弊端。那麼甚麼原因導致外匯儲備引發的問題反而超過受益呢﹖我們來看看專家的分析。
6月12號，中共國家外匯管理局，總經濟師黃國波和國際收支司司長管濤透露，截至今年3月末，中國外匯儲備餘額為3萬9500億美元，基本達到了4萬億美元。
黃國波說，外匯儲備過快增長帶來了一系列挑戰。外匯儲備規模過大，一方面增大了本幣供應，形成國內通貨膨脹潛在壓力，另一方面也提高了央行存款準備金率和對沖操作壓力，對貨幣政策的制約程度進一步增加。
中共成立專門經營管理外匯儲備的機構20年來，外匯儲備規模增長了78倍。在此之前，中共國務院總理李克強在非洲訪問期間提到，較多的外匯儲備已經是很大的負擔。
台灣中華經濟研究院教授吳惠林：「你多餘的錢沒去買現成的東西，就會形成金融資產的泡沫，這個泡沫不管是通貨膨脹還是資產增長，或者說這種泡沫經濟到最後都會垮掉。」
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「外匯是用人民幣換回來的，那換了以後就擴大人民幣的發行量，把美元堆在那裏，其實是嚴重的資源、貨幣、資本極大的一種浪費，現在人民幣的發行量接近120萬億。」
據中共官媒報導，去年的國民生產總值是63億。也就是說人民幣的發行，是國民生產總值的兩倍。
另外，大量的外匯儲備不僅帶來通貨膨脹，面臨的挑戰還體現在增加中共央行的資產負債風險，和加大外匯儲備的經營難度上。黃國波說，目前中共的外匯儲備佔中共央行總資產的比重，已經超過80%，因為與央行資產負債貨幣結構不匹配，帶來了很大匯率風險和成本對衝壓力。
鞏勝利：「人民銀行是沒有任何誠信的，它只是一個傀儡，要報到中共中央的常委會討論了以後才能決定實施與否，所以它這個體制是非常非常麻煩的，放開了以後，等於共產黨就管不了了，不放開，能決策的是不懂人民幣運行的，而懂的他又沒有決定權，只有建議的權利。它不是考慮國家怎麼樣，只考慮現在的執政黨。」
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利透露，中國的貨幣運行由中共常委決定後，再由國務院實施，然後再由各個部、委、辦，把錢分發鐵路和省委等不同部門，貨幣的發行、運用及外匯儲存多少，與人民銀行本身沒有任何關係。
不過世界上其它國家不是這樣，例如美國，美聯儲制定貨幣政策，管理所有的貨幣、國債則由財政部發行管理，任何政府部門和政黨都不能幹涉。
曾經有專家建議，多餘的外匯儲備可以用來解決養老、醫療等資金短缺問題。鞏勝利指出，貨幣不流通等於廢紙。
鞏勝利：「國家對外匯管制得特別嚴厲，作為第一貨幣的美元，只能單向面流進來，沒有自由進出的機制，所有的美元市場不准流通，都進入銀行體系，它就越堆越多，這樣堆下去，不僅沒有利潤，也沒有理財的所謂財富增值，甚至中國的老百姓也沒有辦法享受。」
而巨額外匯儲備，導致大規模投資會面臨約束，如果國際金融危機爆發，還會引發資產安全和價格風險；同時也存在政治、外交衝突引發資產凍結等極端風險。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/蕭宇
China’s 4-trillion Dollar Foreign Reserves
Is a Big Problem, Say Experts.
On June 12, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced
China’s foreign reserves have risen to nearly 4 trillion dollars.
The news was commented on by many media and economists,
who again criticized the CCP’s foreign reserves policies.
They said piling up foreign reserves is little benefit to China,
but means massive money-printing and serious inflation.
Why do the CCP’s foreign reserves bring more problems
than advantages?
Let’s look at the following analysis from financial experts.
On June 12, State Administration of Foreign Exchange chief
economist Huang Guobo and head of the international
payments department Guan Tao revealed that, by March 2014
China’s foreign reserves totaled 3.95 trillion dollars.
Huang Guobo said, an excessive rise of foreign reserves
has brought a series of challenges;
First, it increases the need of money supply which
potentially causes inflation;
Secondly, it increases the cash reserve ratio of the central
bank, making hedging operations more difficult.
Lastly it places more restriction on monetary policies.
The CCP set up its administrative office for foreign reserves
management 20 years ago.
Since then, its foreign reserves have increased 78 times.
In his last visit to Africa, CCP premier Li Keqiang mentioned
that foreign reserves had become a big burden to the state.
Wu Huilin, Professor of Chung-Hua Institution for Economic
Research ”As long as the extra money is not used to make
purchases, the financial bubbles will be there. The bubbles
will definitely burst.
Inflation, capital growth or the bubble economy we are talking
about will all collapse in the end.”
Gong Shengli, Chinese financial think tank researcher
”Foreign reserves have to be exchanged with Chinese Yuan.
So creating tremendous foreign reserves requires increasing
monetary supply, a big waste of capital resources.
Currently China’s money supply is close to 120 trillion
Yuan ($19.3 trillion).”
According to CCP media reports China’s 2013 GDP is
63 trillion Yuan ($10.1 trillion).
So the amount of money being printed is twice
the state’s annual GDP.
So, besides inflation, massive foreign reserves also bring
higher liability risks for the central bank,.
The central bank also has more difficulty in
managing those foreign reserves.
Huang Guobo said the CCP’s current foreign reserves total
over 80% of the central bank’s total assets.
The ratio is not compatible with the central bank’s debt
structure, meaning exchange rate risk and hedging pressure.
Gong Shengli ”The People’s Bank is only a puppet with
no real authority.
A decision cannot be made without going through
the CCP’s Central Committee.
So the regime is intrinsically flawed. If you open everything
up the CCP will lose control over the situation.
If you don’t do that, decisions will always made by those
who do not understand monetary operations.
Knowledgeable people have no power and
can only give advice.
Most importantly, the CCP always place its own interests
over any other consideration for the country.”
Gong Shengli said, China’s monetary decisions are first made
by the Standing Politburo, and executed by the State Council.
Funds are distributed to different departments and committees,
such as the railway administration and local governments.
Decisions in money-issuing, fund-operation and foreign
reserves plan have nothing to do with the People’s Bank.
That is not the situation in other countries.
For example, the U.S. Federal Reserve is in charge of
making monetary policies and managing that money.
National debts are issued by the Treasury Department.
The whole process cannot be interfered with by any other
governmental agencies or any political parties.
Some experts have advised that additional foreign reserves
can be used to ease fund shortage in pension and health care.
Gong Shengli said, money is useless if it stays
out of circulation.
Gong Shengli ”The CCP has very strict control over
foreign reserves.
Particularly for dollars, which are only purchased in but
there is no system in China to freely pay them out.
Dollars can only flow into the bank system without
market circulation, and so just pile up day by day.
That money creates no interest and there is no wealth
management of it so Chinese people get little benefit.”
Tremendous foreign reserves also place restriction over
massive investment.
Once financial crisis breaks out globally, it can lead to
further risks in asset safety and price.
There are also extreme risks of asset freezing due to
political or diplomatic conflicts.
Interview & Edit/Liuhui Post-Production/Xiaoyu
