采访/常春 编辑/尚燕 后制/柏妮
Hu’s name list: Will it be seven or nine?
The Politiburo Standing Committee candidates will be
confirmed at the 18th National Congress at Beidahe meeting.
As the meeting draws near, infighting intensifies with the
comparing of names and the numbers within the Standing Committee, whether it be 7 or 9?
The change of numbers reflects the battle between Hu
Jintao and Jiang Zemin and his bloody group.
The key questions remains, which candidate
will Hu propose !?
Before the 18th CCP National Congress, much discussion
took place concerning the numbers of Politburo Standing Committee.
Hu planned to recover the seven standing committee system.
With the Youth League group taking advantage of a ratio of 4:3.
Jiang’s group however, made a series of comebacks.
People’s Daily Overseas published an article written
by Hu Angang on July 3rd, with Hu praising the nine standing committee system.
This whole process is seen as a tug of war between members.
Commentator Lin Zixu thinks, Hu Jintao must strive to reduce
the number of standing committee members from nine to seven.
If the number remains nine, the chance of Zhang Dejiang or
Zhang Gaoli (both from the Jiang faction) taking position,becomes greater.
This would make things much more difficult For Hu and
his Youth League group, to maintain a majority.
Lin Zixu: “Hu Jintao has fought to take power for ten years.
Due to a lack of support within the Standing Committee in the past,
It is imperative Hu now strives to reduce the numbers from 9
to 7 giving him the advantage and the majority.
If Hu does gain the advantage of confirming the number of
members in Politburo Standing Committee, who will be the final candidates?
Wen Siyong and Ren Zhichu, the authors of “Hu Jintao’s
Biography” think there are five people from the Youth League group listed in Hu Jintao’s plan.
All candidates suggested are below the age 67, are also
members of the Politburo and secretaries of the Secretariat,
including: State Council Executive Vice Premier Li
Keqiang, Minister of the Organization Department of the CC.
Also Central Committee Li Yuanchao, Minister of Propaganda
Department of CCP Central Committee Liu Yunshan,
Guangdong CCP Secretary Wang Yang, and Central Office
Director Ling Jihua, who recently became a hot politician.
Li Keqiang was chosen by Hu Jintao in the 17th CCP National
Congress, Li Yuanchao is central to the Shanghai group,
princelings and Youth League group and has became a trusted
subordinate of Hu Jintao, very early on.
Wang Yang was chosen very early by Wen Jiabao. There is little
suspense on the entering opportunity of these three people.
Liu Yunshan belongs to the princelings, and his father was
the subordinate of Bo Yibo.
He was promoted by Jiang Zemin, becoming Vice Minister of
the Propaganda Department to the CCP Central Committee in 1993 and Minister in 2002.
He has a close relationship with Li Changchun, who is in charge
of propaganda in the standing committee,he’s also a member of the Jiang group.
Liu Yunshan is a key suspect according to the international
human rights organizations due to his persecution of Falun Gong.
However, much evidence shows recently that Liu moved
closer to Hu Jintao.
Lin Zixu said, Liu Yunshan may not take the position of Li
Changchun due to his complex background.
Upon learning that the Governor of Calif. was coming to visit,
Lin Zixu: “Xi Jinpang and Li Keqiang must enter the standing
committee, and there is little suspense on the entering opportunity of Wang Qishan.
Hu Jintao must take three of four remaining seats to ensure
his absolute power.
There is also little suspense on the entering opportunity of Wang Yang, Li
Yuanchao and Liu Yunshan.
However, Liu Yunshan has a complex background.
He does not belong to the loyalists of Hu Jintao.
Thus, the last seat is very important.”
Ling Jihua, the last one within the five and also the
Chief of Staff of Hu Jintao, now serves as the Central Office Director.
Ling Jihuang is a hot politician, but he is not a Politburo member.
It will be difficult for him to jump into the Politburo Standing
Committee directly from Central Committee, like Xi Jinping did.
This phenomena is very seldom seen in the history of CCP.
However, Li Zixu thinks Hu Jintao will try to create
opportunities for him.
Lin Zixu: “From my perspective, the 7th person may be Ling
Jihua. Hu Jintao wants to ensure his absolute power and he
must consider the inter-generational successor.
Hu Jintao will try to put Ling Jihua into the Politburo Standing
Committee, although it will be very difficult.”
Commentator Wang Beiji said, the reverse thinking should
be used to understand the arguments between the seven
standing committee system and nine standing committee system.
Also, other news has escalated from the fight between
Youth League group and the Jiang Zemin group.
Commentator Wang Beiji: “The resource of the whole country
is controlled by ‘Red II’ or princelings.
They do not leave much space for Youth League group.
Thus, whoever controls the fundamental power of the army,
CCP, finance and personnel, becomes the boss.
Even if the eventual leader is not a standing committee
member, he will nonetheless take the greatest power.
The root cause of CCP culture, its mechanism,
is based upon complete control.”
Wang Beiji quoted,” this top-down constraint within CCP
system, is just something on the surface and is useless.
CCP may make some changes on the election of the 18th CCP
National Congress, but its core will never be changed.
This non-elected oligarchy system has led to intense infighting,
it may finally lead to a military coup.