【新唐人2012年7月31日訊】按照慣例，在「八一」前都有一批解放軍高層被授予上將軍銜，但是今年遲遲沒有動靜，直到「八一」前夕，才見媒體發佈中央軍委晉升6名上將的消息。而另一方面，「北戴河會議」也遲遲沒有舉行。評論表示，這顯示中共高層在黨、政、軍高層人事安排上還在激鬥。
很快就到八月，解放軍各大總部、軍區、軍種的中將、少將授銜儀式已經陸續舉行，中央軍委的上將授銜日期曾出現23日、28日等版本，但都沒有落實。 另外，被視為中共現任高層、退休元老權力角逐場的「北戴河會議」，也沒有像海外熱傳的在25號舉行。中共政治局九位常委27號還在北京一起露面，顯示「北戴河會議」已押後。
香港《蘋果日報》30號評論說，這顯示中共高層在黨、政、軍高層人事安排上還在激鬥。
時事評論員橫河指出，從7•21北京水災後，中共9名常委整整在傳媒頭條位置上消失了16天，從這可以看出，目前中共高層對下一代人選的鬥爭激烈到了甚麼程度。
時事評論員橫河：「今年確實是已經到了7月底了，按照常規，這個不是甚麼規定，就是按照傳統來說，應該是授一次軍銜的。但是，現在顯然北戴河會議中共所面臨的問題，特別是現在最高領導人所面臨的問題，大概比軍隊授銜可能要更重要。下一班接班人的問題沒有解決的情況下，可能顧不上授銜的事情。」
《中國事務》雜誌主編伍凡指出，軍中「挺薄、倒薄派之爭」還沒有結束，胡錦濤苦於在軍中影響力不夠，因此現在有比授銜上將更主要的問題。
《中國事務》主編伍凡：「授軍銜哪，恐怕目前還不是最主要問題。最主要現在，下個新的軍委，誰進去。如果軍委安排不好，那麼舊的軍委走不了，新的軍委進不來，那對胡錦濤是非常非常不利的。而胡錦濤又想當下一屆的軍委主席，頭兩年，所以他無論如何要把軍委委員，副主席得拉住，這是最至關重要的。」
雖然在薄熙來倒臺之後，軍方多次向「胡中央」表示忠心，但伍凡認為，這裡面可能隱含著交易。
伍凡：「儘管前一個時期郭伯雄帶頭，把所有的軍委副主席軍委委員帶領表示效忠，但是我看這都不是真實的，這都是表面的。他們跟胡錦濤恐怕要達成甚麼協議，我來表忠，你下一屆的軍委主席當兩年，但是軍委委員，他們這些頭頭們要有發言權。所以這裡面我估計還沒有擺平。」
中共目前仍然沒有公布薄熙來罪名。而最近，受到薄案牽連的重慶市警備區司令員朱和平在消失3個月後，也首度公開露面。香港《明報》引述分析人士的話說，這顯示中共盡力縮小薄案影響面，特別不想影響軍隊穩定。
橫河認為，中共希望降低薄熙來案子的影響，因此對重新表忠的官員不加深究。
橫河：「在中共最高當局來說的話，對於薄熙來這個案子，他們希望是能夠進行『損傷控制』，就是不要讓它影響面太大，也不想在這件事情上把軍隊整個就動亂掉，因為他們其實也沒有這個能力把軍隊給動亂掉，他必須要依靠軍隊內部的力量，才可能去清算。」
伍凡指出，這再次顯示出，軍方和黨不是一條心。
伍凡：「薄熙來下臺了，而這個警隊司令一根汗毛都沒有動啊，上頭的人保護了他。他們就是較量這個，我讓你同意做兩年軍委主席，但是軍隊的事情你不要插手了，我們來安排好了。所以軍隊現在還擺不平啊，表面上我忠心給你，可是那是空的，那我們交易可以啊，真的跟你走，恐怕非常難哪。」
朱和平曾被報導涉嫌用薄熙來提供的公款，給退休將領建造「首長樓」而受到調查並被停職。另外，包括總後勤部政委劉源上將、二炮政委張海陽上將、駐雲南14集團軍軍長周小周少將等，多名軍方將領被指出受到牽連，但這些人後來都相繼公開露面，周小周最近更晉升為成都軍區參謀長。
採訪/常春 編輯/尚燕 後製/王明宇
CCP Infighting Delays Promotion of Generals
Unlike previous years, no information has been released
about promotions until today, when news broke that
six have been promoted as generals.
However, the Beidaihe meeting hasn’t been held yet.
This year it has been quiet so far,
although the Beidaihe meeting was adjourned.
One commentator says this indicates in-fighting among
high-level CCP leaders, over the senior military positions.
Soon it will be August; the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s
People’s Liberation Army major headquarters and military
regions and services have held many ceremonies, awarding
officials the ranks of lieutenant generals and major generals.
There was news of ceremonies being held on July 23 and 28,
however, it was not implemented.
In addition, rumors said there would be a power struggle
among currently retired senior veterans on July 25—but this also failed to materialize.
Nine members of the CCP Politburo Standing Committee
showed their faces together on July 27, indicating that the Beidaihe meeting had been adjourned.
On July 30, Hong Kong’s Apple Daily commented,
“Leaders from the high level are still fighting about
the military senior personnel arrangements.
Heng He, current affairs commentator, says, after the 7/21
Beijing floods all CCP Standing Committee members had disappeared from the media headlines for 16 days.
Indicating intense fighting within the high level CCP
towards the next generation of candidates.
Heng He: “It is the end of July, according to traditions,
military ranks should be granted once.
However, this year the CCP faces more important issues
than endowing military ranks.
When the problem of the next successors is not resolved,
the CCP cannot take care of the matter of endowments.”
Wu Fan, chief editor of China Affairs says, in the army there is
fighting between the 『pro-Bo’ and 『against-Bo’ factions.
Hu Jintao does not have sufficient influence in the military,
so there are more major problems than endowing generals.
[Wu Fan, chief editor of China Affairs]: “Granting the rank is not the main issue for now;
who gets into the Central Military Commission is crucial.
The new Central Military Commissioners are not there yet
and this is disadvantageous for Hu Jintao.
Hu wants to be chairman of the
Central Military Commission (CMC);
in the first two years, Hu must form an alliance
the vice chairman and all new members of the CMC.”
After Bo Xilai’s downfall, China’s military has often
expressed loyalty to Hu Jintao—Wu Fan thinks there may be implicit deals in the making.
[Wu Fan]: “Previously, Guo Boxiong had led all members of
the CMC and the Vice Chairman to pledge allegiance,
however, I think it is only on the surface.
They are negotiating with Hu Jintao—I’ll be loyal to you,
and you can be the chairman of the CMC for two years.
In return, as members of the CMC, we will have the right to
speak—I believe there is a compromise there."
The CCP has not announced charges against Bo Xilai;
recently, Chongqing Garrison Commander Zhu Heping,
who was implicated in Bo Xilai’s case, reappeared in public
after having disappeared for three months.
Hong Kong’s Ming Pao Daily quoted an analyst’s comment,
“the CCP has tried to narrow the influence of Bo Xilai’s case,
in particular, not to let it affect the military’s stability.”
Heng He believes that the CCP wants to reduce
the influence of the Bo Xilai incident,
and therefore, it is giving up further studying
the officials’ renewed loyalty.
[Heng He]: “The highest CCP authorities want to 『damage
the control’ of Bo Xilai case, meaning to reduce its influence.
They do not want military unrest to occur;
since they do not have the ability to bring out military unrest,
they must rely on the power within
the army to settle the rest."
Fan Wu points out that this once again demonstrates
that the military and the CCP are not of one mind.
[Wu Fan]: “Bo’s downfall has not hurt the police commander,
because someone from above has protected him.
They are negotiating—you can be the chairman of the CMC,
but you must not intervene with things in the military.
Superficially I am loyal to you, but that is an empty promise;
we can make a deal, but truly following you will be very hard.”
Zhu Heping was fired for using public funds from Bo Xilai
to construct a building for retired military officers.
In addition, other commanders being implicated in the case
such as General Liu Yuan, General Zhang Haiyang
and Major General Zhou Xiao Zhou, have all re-appeared
in public, one after another.
Zhou Xiao Zhou was recently promoted to chief of staff
of the Chengdu Military Region.
