【禁闻】解读:如何看朝鲜高层闪电访韩?

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【新唐人2014年10月07日讯】日前,朝鲜“2号人物”黄炳誓,与另外两名高官崔龙海、金养健突然访韩,引起外界高度关注。这是自朴槿惠出任韩国总统以来,朝鲜首次派遣如此高级别的官员访韩。不少西方主流媒体纷纷表示“惊讶”。那么,应该如何看待这次朝鲜高官访韩事件呢?一起来看看。

韩联社报导,朝鲜官方10月3号通知韩国,将派黄炳誓等人,于第二天前往韩国。韩方表示同意。

青瓦台还发表声明表示,朴槿惠总统本来有意会面朝方代表团,但因朝方时间因素而无法促成。

4号,包括朝鲜总政治局局长黄炳誓、劳动党中央委员会书记崔龙海以及劳动党中央书记金养健在内的朝鲜高层代表团,在韩国仁川会见了朝鲜亚运会代表团,并出席了仁川亚运会闭幕式。

韩国统一部表示,朝韩双方商定,努力恢复已中断7个月的高层正式对话。当天,双方举行了“午餐会”形式的高层会谈。朝鲜高层代表团会见了韩国统一部长官柳吉在和总理郑烘原。

当晚10点左右,朝鲜高层代表团离开韩国。双方初步达成共识,将于10月底或11月初举行二次高层会谈。

美国中文杂志《中国事务》总编伍凡:“朝鲜的二、三、四号最高官员,3号通知汉城,4号就过去了。我想汉城和平壤的地下可能已经有沟通了。这个事一发生,人们就在猜测,金正恩恐怕已经被软禁了,或者被打伤了?他走不动了。完了把他关起来送医院了,或者把他关起来了,这种可能性都有。”

韩国朝野双方,均对朝鲜高层代表团访韩表示欢迎。美国国务院官员表示,美方支持韩朝改善关系。

事实上,自今年8月起,韩方即不断向平壤喊话,希望尽早接触与举行会谈,却一直未得到正面回应﹔如今,朝鲜藉体育赛事期间同韩国接触,不少政治分析师普遍关注,此次会谈,有可能会成为朝韩关系的“破冰之旅”,甚至有更大胆的猜测说,韩朝有可能走向统一。

但也有学者表达了不同看法。

台湾国立政治大学国际关系研究中心主任严震生:“这一次的高层见面,我也不认为会有什么新的突破。但是至少表示,朝鲜大概觉得说它有被孤立了。甚至想到习近平先赴访了首尔,而没有去平壤。这个是打破过去的惯例。所以它也要做出一些不同的动作嘛。”

观察发现,朝鲜高官近期少有的接二连三积极出访外交,但与中共当局连个起码的外长级互访都没有。

美国中文杂志《中国事务》总编伍凡说,朝鲜的突然变化,对北京恐怕是个极大的刺激。

自9月3号以来,金正恩已经有一个月未在公开场合出现。加上朝鲜电视台先前播出金正恩走路一瘸一拐的画面,引发外界的种种猜测。

10月3号,英国《电讯报》引述消息说,平壤已经全城戒严。这一非比寻常的举动,让外界猜测,朝鲜是否发生了政变。

不过,5号,韩国统一部长柳吉在转述与金养健的谈话,表示目前金正恩的身体状况没有问题。

中国反政治迫害同盟主持人刘因全 :“朝鲜如果发生军事政变的话,这是朝鲜人民之福,也是中国人民之福,是世界人民之福。我很希望朝鲜的有识之士,把金家父子建立的专制制度改变,走向民主。然后两韩统一,朝鲜半岛也就和平了。世界的火药桶也就消灭了。中国的东邻,不断向中国索取援助的这条饿狼啊,也就消灭了。”

此外,金养健在此次行程中所扮演的角色,引起了媒体的注意。韩国《朝鲜日报》指出,朝方在白天宴会上的开场,以及对韩方代表的发言,几乎都由金养健负责。报导引述朝鲜问题专家的话说,金养健不仅是总管朝鲜对韩事业的人物,也曾深受金正日信任。

而曾任国防委员会副委员长的劳动党书记崔龙海,在党、政、军体系中皆任要角,权力序位原本仅次于金正恩,但今年下半年起却大幅下跌。在金正恩姑丈张承泽遭肃清后,崔的地位被黄炳誓所取代,黄成为目前握有朝鲜实权的第二号人物。

采访/陈汉 编辑/王子琦 后制/李勇

How to understand North Korean high-level lightning
visit to South Korea?

Recently, North Korea’s “No. 2 figure" Hwang Pyong-So
and two other senior officials Choe Ryong-Hae,
and Kim Yang-Gon,
made a sudden visit to South Korea, drawing worldwide attention.
This is the first time North Korea dispatched
such high-level officials
to visit South Korea since Park Geun-hye took position
of President in South Korea.
Many Western mainstream media expressed their “surprise".

So how should we understand the North Korean officials’ visit
to South Korea? Let’s take a look.

Yonhap News Agency reported that North Korea officially
notified South Korea on Oct. 3,
that they would send Hwang Pyong-So and others to visit
South Korea the next day and South Korea agreed.

Cheong Wa Dae (The Blue House) also issued a statement,
claiming President Park Geun-hye intended to interview
North Korea’s delegation,
but with the tight timeframe, it made it practically impossible.

On Oct. 4th, North Korea’s high-level delegation, including
North Korean Politburo head Hwang Pyong-So,
the Korean Workers’ Party [KWP] Secretary Choe Ryong-Hae
and Secretary of Central Office of KWP Party Kim Yang-Gon,
interviewed the North Korean delegation in the Asian Sports
Games in Incheon, South Korea
and attended the closing ceremony of the Games.

South Korean Unification Ministry said the two Korean sides
agreed to restore high-level official dialogue,
which has been interrupted for seven months.

On the same day, the two sides held high-level talks in the form
of a “luncheon meeting".
North Korea’s high-level delegation met with South Korean Unification
Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae and Prime Minister Jung Hong-won.

On the same morning the Korean high-level delegation
left South Korea.
The two sides reached a preliminary agreement to hold the second
high-level talks by the end of October or early November.

American Chinese magazine “China Affairs" Chief Editor
Mr Wu Fan: “North Korea’s second, third and fourth highest
officials notified Seoul on Oct 3rd, arriving in South Korea next day.

I think Seoul and Pyongyang may have already had secret
communications with this.
Once such a thing occurs, the public would guess, Kim Jong-un
probably has been under house arrest, or wounded?
He was unable to walk. Then he was confined and sent
to the hospital, or locked up.
It is possible, such a case can happen."

Ruling and opposition parties in South Korea both welcomed
the North Korean high-level delegation visit to South Korea.
A U.S. State Department official said the United States supported
improving relations between both Korean sides.

In fact, since August of this year, South Korea has been
continually speaking to Pyongyang,
hoping to hold talks as soon as possible, but without any
positive responses.
Now North Korea has contacted the South Korean officials
during the sporting events and this generally raises
the concerns of many political analysts.

Such talks could become the “ice-breaking journey"
for the inter-Korean relations,
and even more daring speculation is that
North and South Korea may move towards a reunification.

However, some scholars expressed different views.

Yan Zhensheng is Director of the Research Center for Taiwan
International Relations of National Chengchi University.
He says:"During this time’s high-level meeting,
I do not think there will be any new breakthroughs,
but at least this indicates that North Korea probably feels
that it has been isolated.
North Korea even thought of Xi Jinping first visiting
Seoul but not visiting Pyongyang.
This is breaking the past practices,
so it should make for some different form of actions."

Recent news shows that recently North Korean officials
have had a spate of diplomatic visits,
but with no minimal level foreign minister visits
to Chinese authorities.

American Chinese magazine “China Affairs" Chief Editor
Wu Fan, said that a sudden change in North Korea
might be a great stimulus to Beijing.

Since Sept. 3, Kim Jong-un has not appeared
in public for one month.

Given the previous picture’s of Kim Jong-un limping
on a North Korean televised broadcast,
has triggered a variety of speculations.

Oct. 3, British “Telegraph" quoted news that a curfew was
carried out throughout the whole city of Pyongyang.
This unusual move sparked the speculation of
whether North Korea has a coup or not.

However, on Oct. 5th, South Korea’s Unification Minister
Ryoo Kihl-jae, cited Kim Yang-gon’s, saying,
that Kim Jong-un’s current physical condition
has no problems.

Chinese Anti-Political Persecution Alliance Director
Liu Yinquan: “If North Korea has a military coup,
then it is a blessing for the Korean people,
of the Chinese people, and even of the worlds people.
I very much hope that North Korea’s insightful guys
overturn the autocratic regime established
by Kim’s family, moving towards democracy.

Then both sides of the Korean family may reunify.

Peace in the Korean peninsula will also be achieved,
and hence the world’s power keg is also eliminated.
Such is China’s Easterly neighbour, a hungry wolf,
which is continuing to request assistance from China,
may also perish."

In addition, Kim Yang-Gon’s role during the trip
attracted media attention.
South Korean-based “Chosun Online" says, DPRK’s opening
speech during the banquet and talks to South Korea,
are nearly all made by Kim Yang-Gon.

The report quoted experts as saying that Kim Yang-Gon
is not only the head in charge of all affairs of North Korea
with the South Korean’s, but he was also
deeply trusted by Kim Jong-il.

As the former vice chairman of the National Defense
Commission of the DPRK,
and the incumbent KWP Secretary Choe Ryong-Hae,
has taken key position among the party,
government, and military systems with his power-order
second only to Kim Jong-un originally,
but his power has now dropped sharply
since the second half of this year.
After Kim Jong-un’s uncle-in-law Jang Sung-taek
has been eliminated,
Choe Ryong-Hae’s power status has been replaced
by Hwang Pyong-So,
who is now the second most powerful figure
with real influence in North Korea.

Interview/ChenHan Edit/Wang Ziqi Post-Production/LiYong

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